CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $80,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$134,000

Post

1:29 PM ET

Pace

Closers' Race

Model top pick

#2 · 29%

Claiming $80,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 3/8 Miles: 131.73

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 Chambersville (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 84 · 81 · 89. Backup is #4 The Hidden Chamber at 6-1. Use #6 Catch The Breeze in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Closers' Race: Closer-heavy field with limited speed. Tactical horses + closers projected to advance late.

1TOP PICK

2Chambersville

Jockey Irad Jr Ortiz 37% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek 1-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Discotheque 9-5, R3: Guns Allowed 5-2, R5: Vaporetti 4-1, R7: Aegis 5-2 +1 more · Trainer R1: Sleepingonfreedom 5-1

LASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

A longer trip: 1 3/16 miles last out, 1 3/8 miles today. Beaten 2½ lengths for 5th in a 9-horse race at BEL.

EVEN PACE Tactical speed in a field of closers; early position could be worth a lot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 22d back)

M/L9-5

Model29%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last5th · 18d

22ND

4The Hidden Chamber

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 5-for-17 on turf this meet (29%), #1 of 12 · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: One More Freud 6-1, R5: Greystone 2-1, R8: Ortley Avenue 9-2, R9: Givemethebeat 8-1

0 for 5 at today's distance. An 89 top number against a 87 par, so it fits the level.

EVEN PACE Can sit close in a field short on forward types.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 4 here: 30 wins, 75 top-3 in 158 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 31d

33RD

6Catch The Breeze

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet · Trainer Michael W McCarthy 0-for-3 on turf this meet

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Won last out in an 8-horse allowance race at KD. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 99, with 92 next best.

EVEN PACE Tactical speed in a field of closers; early position could be worth a lot.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L5-1

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 49d

44TH

1Rapoport

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Risk It 4-1, R3: Macchiato 7-2, R4: Spill The Sugar 2-1, R5: Lahainaluna 7-2 +2 more · Trainer R5: Lazlo 10-1, R5: Greystone 2-1, R8: Initialize 7-2

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2/4 board here

Class relief: optional claiming last time, allowance optional claiming today. Goes 1 3/8 miles after running a mile last time.

PACE HELPS Pace is thin and the closers will be bunched; the late run is the race.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 11d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 1 here: 34 wins, 77 top-3 in 130 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last10th · 51d

55TH

5Clyde's Got A Gun

Jockey J Graham 27% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Helen Pitts 24% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R7: Dancin In Old Town 4-1

Jky 0/23 from post 5

Figure of 92 on the record sits above the 87 par. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Not much speed ahead of it, which helps a closing run.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3w; 5w1/4; rallied. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD J Graham has never won from post 5 here (8 top-3 in 23 rides) · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 31d

3Esmark

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 2-for-17 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Victoria Oliver 26% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: My Boy Tony 8-1, R7: Cartier Gold 8-1, R8: Moon Sniper 15-1, R8: Cheval De Guerre 10-1 +1 more

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS3/3 board here

2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 9. Drops from optional claiming to allowance optional claiming.

PACE HELPS Closer-heavy field with little speed, so the late kick projects to matter.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)

RECORD Luis Saez from post 3 here: 30 wins, 78 top-3 in 150 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

M/L3-1

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 53d

7Hard As Life

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Michelle Nihei 21% career

Also today · Jockey R3: Harbor Prince 8-1, R5: Sav'n Money 15-1, R7: Rules And Regs 3-1, R8: Corona De Oro 15-1 +1 more

180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 200 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE HELPS Closer-heavy field with little speed, so the late kick projects to matter.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Oct 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d

M/L20-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 200d

At a glance

Market favourite #2 CHAMBERSVILLE (9-5) — our number agrees.
#2 CHAMBERSVILLE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.1% to their 28.0%).
#3 ESMARK — our #6 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.6%).
#5 CLYDE'S GOT A GUN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (14.8% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Closers' Race. Closer-heavy field with limited speed. Tactical horses + closers projected to advance late.

Likely leader: #2 Chambersville; pressure from #6 Catch The Breeze; the shape helps #1 Rapoport, #3 Esmark, #5 Clyde's Got A Gun.

Lead

none

Press

2Chambersville796Catch The Breeze77

Stalk

4The Hidden Chamber65

7Hard As Life841Rapoport733Esmark695Clyde's Got A Gun62

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Chambersville

Catch The Breeze

The Hidden Chamber

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Rapoport

Esmark

Clyde's Got A Gun

Hard As Life

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 2-3-4)

PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5) / SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN

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