CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Allowance · $127,000 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$127,000

Post

2:57 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#4 · 26%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 3/8 Miles: 131.73

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Greystone (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 93 · 89 · 88. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Vaporetti at 4-1. Use #1 My Boy Tony in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

4Greystone

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 5-for-17 on turf this meet (29%), #1 of 12 · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: One More Freud 6-1, R2: The Hidden Chamber 6-1, R8: Ortley Avenue 9-2, R9: Givemethebeat 8-1 · Trainer R2: Rapoport 8-1, this race: Lazlo 10-1, R8: Initialize 7-2

LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Purse drops from $750,000 to $127,000 against its last start. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 11d back)

RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 4 here: 30 wins, 75 top-3 in 158 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

Model26%

Fav?Yes

StyleS

Last3rd · 49d

22ND

8Vaporetti

Jockey Irad Jr Ortiz 37% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career 0-for-7 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Discotheque 9-5, R2: Chambersville 9-5, R3: Guns Allowed 5-2, R7: Aegis 5-2 +1 more · Trainer R3: Guns Allowed 5-2

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

A longer trip: 1 1/16 miles last out, 1 3/8 miles today. Beaten 8¾ lengths for 4th in a 9-horse allowance race at CD.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

M/L4-1

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last4th · 39d

33RD

1My Boy Tony

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 2-for-17 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Eddie Kenneally 35% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Esmark 3-1, R7: Cartier Gold 8-1, R8: Moon Sniper 15-1, R8: Cheval De Guerre 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Cheval De Guerre 10-1

3/4 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 100 against 98 for the next best. Goes 1 3/8 miles after running 1 3/16 miles last time.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 11 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Luis Saez from post 1 here: 19 wins, 60 top-3 in 150 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 26d

44TH

6Dawn Dragon

Jockey Axel Concepcion 33% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%), #2 of 12 · Trainer Riley Mott 34% career 2-for-5 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Riyah Al Nil 12-1, R9: Nyad 8-1 · Trainer R8: Smokey Smokey 6-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Trending the wrong way on speed, 87 to 86 to 80. Worked 4F in :48.80 on Oct 12, 3rd of 19 at the distance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD Axel Concepcion from post 6 here: 6 wins, 19 top-3 in 44 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last6th · 39d

55TH

5Lahainaluna

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 2-for-7 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Risk It 4-1, R2: Rapoport 8-1, R3: Macchiato 7-2, R4: Spill The Sugar 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Pulling Threads 9-2, R7: Aegis 5-2, R9: Sharp Mindset 7-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Figure of 92 on the record sits above the 83 par. Finished 8th in a 12-horse allowance race at KEE, beaten 9 lengths.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumped btwn start; 3p last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 6d back

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 5 here: 27 wins, 58 top-3 in 119 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last8th · 26d

7Caragogo

Jockey Edgar Morales 32% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer George R Ii Arnold 21% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Attersee 6-1, R3: Titan King 20-1, R4: Grant's Gretchen 10-1, R7: M's Mabee Baby 30-1 +1 more

Figures are climbing: 81, 84, 89 over its last three. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 90).

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Jul 28 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Edgar Morales from post 7 here: 9 wins, 30 top-3 in 83 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 26d

2Lazlo

Jockey Ben Curtis 36% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Feral 15-1 · Trainer R2: Rapoport 8-1, this race: Greystone 2-1, R8: Initialize 7-2

Stretches out from 1 3/16 miles to 1 3/8 miles. Last out was 5th, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse allowance race at KEE.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 36d ago

RECORD Ben Curtis from post 2 here: 1 win, 6 top-3 in 29 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last5th · 26d

3Sav'n Money

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Wayne M Catalano 38% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Hard As Life 20-1, R3: Harbor Prince 8-1, R7: Rules And Regs 3-1, R8: Corona De Oro 15-1 +1 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Runs for $127,000 today after a $250,000 race last time. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 5d back

M/L15-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 46d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 GREYSTONE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#4 GREYSTONE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.0% to their 26.2%).
#5 LAHAINALUNA — our #5 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 17.4%).
#8 VAPORETTI — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.5% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Caragogo; pressure from #2 Lazlo, #6 Dawn Dragon; the shape helps #5 Lahainaluna, #6 Dawn Dragon; and works against #2 Lazlo, #7 Caragogo.

Lead

7Caragogo902Lazlo87

Press

6Dawn Dragon84

Stalk

5Lahainaluna72

3Sav'n Money841My Boy Tony788Vaporetti734Greystone

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Caragogo

Lazlo

Dawn Dragon

Lahainaluna

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

My Boy Tony

Greystone

Sav'n Money

Vaporetti

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7)

PICK 5 (RACES 5-9) / SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN

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