CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$120,000

Post

3:55 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Model top pick

#3 · 30%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.44

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Aegis (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 82 · 75 · 86. Backup is #8 Love Divine at 6-1. Use #1 Shewontbudge in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1TOP PICK

3Aegis

Jockey Irad Jr Ortiz 37% career 3-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 6-for-32 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Discotheque 9-5, R2: Chambersville 9-5, R3: Guns Allowed 5-2, R5: Vaporetti 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Pulling Threads 9-2, R5: Lahainaluna 7-2, R9: Sharp Mindset 7-2

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

159 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Cuts back from a mile to 7 furlongs.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L5-2

Model30%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last5th · 159d

22ND

8Love Divine

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 7-for-43 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 5-for-35 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Risk It 4-1, R2: Rapoport 8-1, R3: Macchiato 7-2, R4: Spill The Sugar 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Risk It 4-1, R1: Ravens Dream 12-1, R3: Macchiato 7-2, R3: Private Show 15-1

Jose L Ortiz takes over from Keith J Asmussen in the saddle. Was 12th of 12 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 13 days ago

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 8 here: 26 wins, 43 top-3 in 95 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last5th · 46d

33RD

1Shewontbudge

Jockey Walter A Rodriguez 34% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer James T Spicer 14% career

Owns the highest recent figure here at 87. Finished 7th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at KEE, beaten 14 lengths.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 33d ago

RECORD Walter A Rodriguez from post 1 here: 5 wins, 9 top-3 in 23 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last7th · 26d

44TH

5Rules And Regs

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 5-for-36 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ian R Wilkes 27% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Hard As Life 20-1, R3: Harbor Prince 8-1, R5: Sav'n Money 15-1, R8: Corona De Oro 15-1 +1 more

Figures are climbing: 70, 79, 86 over its last three. Goes 7 furlongs after running -7 furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 10d ago

M/L3-1

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 26d

55TH

9Cartier Gold

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 8-for-49 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer John C Servis 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Esmark 3-1, R5: My Boy Tony 8-1, R8: Moon Sniper 15-1, R8: Cheval De Guerre 10-1 +1 more

A longer trip: -7 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Aug 15 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d ago

RECORD Luis Saez from post 9 here: 18 wins, 36 top-3 in 102 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 26d

2Magic Woman

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Robert Medina 32% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R9: Buckeye Favorite 15-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 86 for the next best. Gets a new rider, Junior Alvarado replacing Joel Rosario.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Ins; altered 1/8; ran on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 46d

4Dancin In Old Town

Jockey J Graham 27% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer J Keith Desormeaux 29% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Clyde's Got A Gun 4-1

180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Back after 284 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Runs for $120,000 today after a $150,000 race last time.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 8d back

RECORD J Graham from post 4 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 29 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 284d

7M's Mabee Baby

Jockey Edgar Morales 32% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jordan Blair 30% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Attersee 6-1, R3: Titan King 20-1, R4: Grant's Gretchen 10-1, R5: Caragogo 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Attersee 6-1

180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Returns from a 215-day break. Last out was 9th, 5½ lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at TP.

EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD Edgar Morales from post 7 here: 9 wins, 30 top-3 in 83 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L30-1

Model2%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last9th · 215d

6Get Into It

Jockey Assael Espinoza 35% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Raymond C Bryner 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

First career start, by Liam's Map out of Cry War Eagle. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 21).

EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

At a glance

Market favourite #3 AEGIS (5-2) — our number agrees.
#3 AEGIS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 22.4%).
#5 RULES AND REGS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 19.6%).
#4 DANCIN IN OLD TOWN — our #7 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 SHEWONTBUDGE (20-1) — our fair 4.5% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Aegis.

Lead

none

Press

3Aegis90

Stalk

9Cartier Gold918Love Divine781Shewontbudge76

2Magic Woman855Rules And Regs854Dancin In Old Town65

No style yet

7M's Mabee Baby876Get Into It

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Cartier Gold

Aegis

Love Divine

Shewontbudge

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Rules And Regs

Magic Woman

Dancin In Old Town

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9)

SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN

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