CHARLES TOWN · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$19,600

Post

7:00 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Model top pick

#4 · 36%

Claiming $10,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 82.68

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Over The Bull (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 59 · 71 · 71. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #1 Stars Over Juba at 5-1. Use #6 Elite Miss in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1TOP PICK

4Over The Bull

Jockey Wesley Ho 31% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Michael E Sterling 24% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Shessweetlikecandy 7-2, R5: Sharpasadiamond 8-1, R6: Dorado 7-2, R8: Chargeaholic 8-1

8/12 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 74 against 67 for the next best. Gets a new rider, Wesley Ho replacing Denis Vicente Araujo.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Bump st; no threat last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 215d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Wesley Ho from post 4 here: 5 wins, 16 top-3 in 47 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L6-5

Model36%

Fav?Yes

StyleP

Last9th · 40d

22ND

1Stars Over Juba

Jockey J D Acosta 24% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Adam King 21% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Lona Lee 6-1 · Trainer this race: Cloudyncool 8-5, R5: No Love For Juba 15-1, R5: John's Notion 15-1

Drops from $15,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 155d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 19 starts here

RECORD J D Acosta from post 1 here: 22 wins, 77 top-3 in 173 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model19%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 13d

33RD

6Elite Miss

Jockey Abnel J Bocachica 39% career ★ 18-for-79 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Tyler S Shanley 22% career 8-for-72 on dirt this meet (11%)

4/8 board here

Back to 7 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 235d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Abnel J Bocachica from post 6 here: 84 wins, 188 top-3 in 341 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 12d

44TH

3Fox Fifty Eight

Jockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 5-for-51 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Claude G Jr Payne 15% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Flattering Way 15-1, R3: Crazy Anita 20-1, R5: Youthinkthatsfunny 5-1, R8: Keep 'em Honest 1-1

Best recent figure is 65, well under the 73 par for this level. 0 for 9 at today's distance.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 32d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Jacqueline A Davis from post 3 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 44 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 13d

55TH

5Cloudyncool

Jockey Reshawn Latchman 34% career 5-for-31 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Adam King 21% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Jubaslilballerina 12-1, R5: No Love For Juba 15-1, R6: Tricks R For Juba 4-1 · Trainer this race: Stars Over Juba 5-1, R5: No Love For Juba 15-1, R5: John's Notion 15-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Winner of an 8-horse $15,000 claiming race at CT last time. Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Apr 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Reshawn Latchman from post 5 here: 21 wins, 55 top-3 in 125 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

M/L8-5

Model24%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 14d

2Seven's Magic

Jockey Emanuel Rosario 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Nesvil Hernan Bailon 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Go Joe Won 5-1

CLASS UP

Finished 6th in an 8-horse optional claiming race at DEL, beaten 11 lengths. Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 31; 0 works in 30d

M/L15-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last6th · 14d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 OVER THE BULL (6-5) — our number agrees.
#4 OVER THE BULL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (34.7% to their 36.8%).
#5 CLOUDYNCOOL — our #5 number, about right at the windows (28.8% to their 31.1%).
#1 STARS OVER JUBA — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.6%, they've got 13.5%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 STARS OVER JUBA — we make it 16.6%, the morning line works out to 13.5%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Cloudyncool; pressure from #1 Stars Over Juba.

Lead

none

Press

5Cloudyncool881Stars Over Juba81

Stalk

2Seven's Magic844Over The Bull816Elite Miss78

3Fox Fifty Eight78

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Cloudyncool

Seven's Magic

Stars Over Juba

Over The Bull

Elite Miss

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Fox Fifty Eight

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EARLY NO CARRYOVER PICK 5 (RACES 1-2-3-4-5) / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) / PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.