CHARLES TOWN · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $5,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$13,300

Post

10:17 AM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#1 · 18%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #1 El Papacito (early speed, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 41 · 63 · 48. Backup is #5 Shawnpatrick at 6-1. Use #6 Chargeaholic in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

1El Papacito

Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 9-for-79 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Honey I'm Broke 9-5, R3: Chelsea's Dream 3-1, R7: Bonsai Warrior 3-1 · Trainer R2: Honey I'm Broke 9-5, R7: Bonsai Warrior 3-1

New trainer: Somraj Singh had it last time, Ronney W Brown now. Class relief: maiden claiming $8,000 last time, maiden claiming $5,000 today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Moises Santaella from post 1 here: 17 wins, 46 top-3 in 91 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

M/L9-2

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last6th · 33d

22ND

5Shawnpatrick

Jockey Edgar Villasmil 16% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter 24% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Reece's Drama 12-1, R7: Joel's Boy 15-1 · Trainer R2: Reece's Drama 12-1

Figures are climbing: 37, 55, 59 over its last three. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 63 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L6-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last3rd · 20d

33RD

6Chargeaholic

Jockey Wesley Ho 31% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Christopher M Keller 17% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Over The Bull 6-5, R3: Shessweetlikecandy 7-2, R5: Sharpasadiamond 8-1, R6: Dorado 7-2

CLASS DROP

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 55 against a 70 par. 2nd of 29 at 5F on Aug 1, in 1:00.40.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d ago

RECORD Wesley Ho from post 6 here: 5 wins, 32 top-3 in 72 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 20d

44TH

2Super Banker

Jockey Christian Hiraldo 29% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer William L Aylor 15% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Lil Miss Honkytonk 15-1

CLASS DROP

Best recent figure is 62, well under the 70 par for this level. Finished 8th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $4,500 race at CT, beaten 8½ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)

TROUBLED TRIP Taken up1/4; gaveway last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 27d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Christian Hiraldo from post 2 here: 17 wins, 68 top-3 in 169 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last8th · 20d

55TH

7Keep 'em Honest

Jockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 5-for-51 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Tamara Housel 16% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Fox Fifty Eight 10-1, R2: Flattering Way 15-1, R3: Crazy Anita 20-1, R5: Youthinkthatsfunny 5-1

CLASS DROPJky 4/36 from post 7

Gets a new rider, Jacqueline A Davis replacing Keiber J Coa. Cuts back from 5½ furlongs to 4½ furlongs.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 26d ago)

RECORD Jacqueline A Davis from post 7 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 36 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L1-1

Model30%

Fav?Yes

StyleE

Last2nd · 15d

4Kurumi Go Go

Jockey Agustin Martinez 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ricardo Rangel 25% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

0/9 board here

Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $5,000. 9th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 9 starts here

M/L20-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last9th · 33d

3Great Ending

Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo 14% career 3-for-48 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Michael E Jr Jones 25% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Alice's Moon 8-1, R3: Sparkleinyoureye 6-1 · Trainer R3: Sparkleinyoureye 6-1

60D LAYOFF

173 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $5,000, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)

TROUBLED TRIP Bump; chase ins; empty last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 25d ago

RECORD Jahnxander Raspaldo from post 3 here: 4 wins, 14 top-3 in 34 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last6th · 173d

At a glance

Market favourite #7 KEEP 'EM HONEST (1-1) — but VULNERABLE: bounce risk — spiked to a new top last out, due to regress
#7 KEEP 'EM HONEST — our #5 number, about right at the windows (35.8% to their 40.3%).
#1 EL PAPACITO — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.0%, they've got 14.7%.
#3 GREAT ENDING — our #7 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 13.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 EL PAPACITO — we make it 17.0%, the morning line works out to 14.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 KURUMI GO GO (20-1) — our fair 4.4% is above the morning line's 3.8%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Keep 'em Honest; pressure from #5 Shawnpatrick, #2 Super Banker; the shape helps #4 Kurumi Go Go; and works against #1 El Papacito, #2 Super Banker, #3 Great Ending.

Lead

7Keep 'em Honest955Shawnpatrick912Super Banker873Great Ending841El Papacito78

Press

none

Stalk

none

4Kurumi Go Go78

No style yet

6Chargeaholic88

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Keep 'em Honest

Shawnpatrick

Super Banker

Great Ending

El Papacito

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Kurumi Go Go

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