CHARLES TOWN · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $15,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$29,800

Post

8:53 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#4 · 23%

Claiming $15,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 82.68

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Social Chic (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 59 · 79 · 78. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #8 Judgement Day at 5-2. Use #5 Road Minister in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

4Social Chic

Jockey Jose Y Diaz 33% career 7-for-65 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jeff C Runco 39% career 5-for-43 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Vissim 9-2 · Trainer R6: Spotafreeone 8-5, R7: Zachamundo 2-1

9/11 board here

Last out was 9th, 7¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at CT. 2nd of 6 at 3F on Jun 17, in :35.00.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Chase ins3/8; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 133d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 9 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Jose Y Diaz from post 4 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 26 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L9-2

Model23%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last9th · 41d

22ND

8Judgement Day

Jockey L C Reynolds 32% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Timothy C Grams 34% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Capovivo 6-1 · Trainer R6: Capovivo 6-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 82. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Pinched early; no bid), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 69d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD L C Reynolds from post 8 here: 7 wins, 18 top-3 in 39 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

M/L5-2

Model22%

Fav?Yes

StyleE

Last7th · 19d

33RD

5Road Minister

Jockey Antonio Lopez 36% career ★ 6-for-19 on dirt this meet (32%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Shane Meyers 33% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Shewonttalktome 10-1, R6: Neverpopthecork 15-1

WON LAST4/8 board here

Winner of an 8-horse allowance race at CT last time. Was 8th of 8 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Mar 30; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Antonio Lopez from post 5 here: 11 wins, 35 top-3 in 73 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last1st · 20d

44TH

7Royal Pain

Jockey Arnaldo Bocachica 39% career ★ 18-for-79 on dirt this meet (23%), #3 of 31 · Trainer David L Walters 31% career ★ 4-for-17 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Spotafreeone 8-5, R7: Zachamundo 2-1 · Trainer R3: Vissim 9-2

6/11 board here

Off 48 days since the last start. Worked 3F in :36.80 on Oct 17, 3rd of 8 at the distance.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump st; no late kick), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 85d ago)

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Arnaldo Bocachica from post 7 here: 74 wins, 151 top-3 in 268 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

M/L3-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 48d

55TH

2No Love For Juba

Jockey Reshawn Latchman 34% career 5-for-31 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Adam King 21% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Cloudyncool 8-5, R4: Jubaslilballerina 12-1, R6: Tricks R For Juba 4-1 · Trainer R1: Stars Over Juba 5-1, R1: Cloudyncool 8-5, this race: John's Notion 15-1

CLASS UP

Best recent figure is 68, well under the 79 par for this level. Finished 6th in a 9-horse optional claiming race at CT, beaten 4½ lengths.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Nov 30 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Reshawn Latchman from post 2 here: 24 wins, 61 top-3 in 136 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last6th · 48d

6Sharpasadiamond

Jockey Wesley Ho 31% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Anthony M Ii Rideout 17% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Over The Bull 6-5, R3: Shessweetlikecandy 7-2, R6: Dorado 7-2, R8: Chargeaholic 8-1

5/10 board here

Carries 122 pounds, 5 more than last time. Gets a new rider, Wesley Ho replacing Bueno Nomar Arroyo.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 516d ago)

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Wesley Ho from post 6 here: 5 wins, 32 top-3 in 72 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last7th · 19d

1Youthinkthatsfunny

Jockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 5-for-51 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Joanna Boggs 26% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Fox Fifty Eight 10-1, R2: Flattering Way 15-1, R3: Crazy Anita 20-1, R8: Keep 'em Honest 1-1 · Trainer R2: Maybeitwas Memphis 9-2, R4: Lil Miss Honkytonk 15-1

CLASS DROP

Moves up from optional claiming to allowance optional claiming. Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 72 to 64.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 133d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 7 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Jacqueline A Davis from post 1 here: 4 wins, 19 top-3 in 40 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L5-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last9th · 19d

3John's Notion

Jockey Angel Cruz 33% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Adam King 21% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Trainer R1: Stars Over Juba 5-1, R1: Cloudyncool 8-5, this race: No Love For Juba 15-1

CLASS UP

Jockey switch: Reshawn Latchman last out, Angel Cruz today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 68 against a 79 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 46d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Angel Cruz from post 3 here: 13 wins, 36 top-3 in 68 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last7th · 12d

At a glance

Market favourite #8 JUDGEMENT DAY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#8 JUDGEMENT DAY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.3% to their 22.6%).
#7 ROYAL PAIN — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 19.8%).
#4 SOCIAL CHIC — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.6%, they've got 14.4%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 SOCIAL CHIC — we make it 16.6%, the morning line works out to 14.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Youthinkthatsfunny; pressure from #3 John's Notion, #8 Judgement Day; the shape helps #5 Road Minister, #7 Royal Pain; and works against #1 Youthinkthatsfunny, #3 John's Notion, #8 Judgement Day.

Lead

1Youthinkthatsfunny863John's Notion838Judgement Day79

Press

6Sharpasadiamond902No Love For Juba82

Stalk

4Social Chic82

7Royal Pain735Road Minister72

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sharpasadiamond

Youthinkthatsfunny

John's Notion

No Love For Juba

Social Chic

Judgement Day

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Road Minister

Royal Pain

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8)

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