● Live race intelligence · code CT

Charles Town

Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Races
8
on the card
Feature
R4
State-Bred Allowance · $38,900 purse · $39K
First post
7:00 PM
ET · race 1
Top model win %
36%
#4 Over The Bull

● Track conditions today

Charles Town — today's signals

Surface read

±0.72s STEADY

Surface holds steady day to day — final times read true off the page, so our speed figures need little adjustment here.

day-to-day swing · 115 race-days sampled

Weather

Unavailable

No forecast for this track right now — surface read defaults to the listed condition.

Carryover pool

None today

No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.

Do the model's percentages hold up?

Mostly

Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.

checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06

TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST

Best post #2 (13%) · Rail helps

Even by post — inside 12% / outside 9%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 31,738 starts.

avg 12%13%113%211%311%411%512%613%710%8

Where the model is most sure

Three highest model win %.

The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.

R1 · 7 Furlongs Dirt

#4 Over The Bull

Ho Wesley · Sterling Michael E

Model win %
36%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
6-5

R7 · 7 Furlongs Dirt

#1 Zachamundo

Bocachica Arnaldo · Runco Jeff C

Model win %
31%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
2-1

R4 · 7 Furlongs Dirt

#4 Edy's Flame

Barbosa Jeiron · Farrior Anthony

Model win %
30%
Vs favourite
Differs
M/L
7-5

Top connections on the card

Trainers + jockeys to watch.

Trainer leaderboard

  1. Runco Jeff C3 top picks
  2. Figgins Ollie L Iii2 top picks
  3. Farrior Anthony2 top picks
  4. Sterling Michael E1 top picks
  5. King Adam1 top picks

Jockey leaderboard

  1. Ho Wesley2 top picks
  2. Diaz Jose Y2 top picks
  3. Barbosa Jeiron2 top picks
  4. Bocachica Arnaldo2 top picks
  5. Acosta J D1 top picks

Multi-race wagers

Today's sequences, leg by leg.

Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg, or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all. This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.

Daily DoubleRaces 1–2
R1#4 Over The Bull · #1 Stars Over JubaClose: top 2
R2#7 Alice's MoonTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 1–3
R1#4 Over The Bull · #1 Stars Over JubaClose: top 2
R2#7 Alice's MoonTop pick
R3#7 VissimTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 2–4
R2#7 Alice's MoonTop pick
R3#7 VissimTop pick
R4#4 Edy's Flame · #3 Petty PerfectClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 2–5
R2#7 Alice's MoonTop pick
R3#7 VissimTop pick
R4#4 Edy's Flame · #3 Petty PerfectClose: top 2
R5#4 Social ChicTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 3–5
R3#7 VissimTop pick
R4#4 Edy's Flame · #3 Petty PerfectClose: top 2
R5#4 Social ChicTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 6Races 3–8
R3#7 VissimTop pick
R4#4 Edy's Flame · #3 Petty PerfectClose: top 2
R5#4 Social ChicTop pick
R6#6 Dorado · #8 Spotafreeone · #1 NeverpopthecorkClose: top 3
R7#1 ZachamundoTop pick
R8#1 El PapacitoTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 4–6
R4#4 Edy's Flame · #3 Petty PerfectClose: top 2
R5#4 Social ChicTop pick
R6#6 Dorado · #8 Spotafreeone · #1 NeverpopthecorkClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 4–8
R4#4 Edy's Flame · #3 Petty PerfectClose: top 2
R5#4 Social ChicTop pick
R6#6 Dorado · #8 Spotafreeone · #1 NeverpopthecorkClose: top 3
R7#1 ZachamundoTop pick
R8#1 El PapacitoTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 5–7
R5#4 Social ChicTop pick
R6#6 Dorado · #8 Spotafreeone · #1 NeverpopthecorkClose: top 3
R7#1 ZachamundoTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 5–8
R5#4 Social ChicTop pick
R6#6 Dorado · #8 Spotafreeone · #1 NeverpopthecorkClose: top 3
R7#1 ZachamundoTop pick
R8#1 El PapacitoTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Late Pick 3Races 6–8 · $3 min
R6#6 Dorado · #8 Spotafreeone · #1 NeverpopthecorkClose: top 3
R7#1 ZachamundoTop pick
R8#1 El PapacitoTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.

Today's races

Race-by-race with archetype.

Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.

R01

7 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $10,000

Purse $19,600 · 6 entered · Post 7:00 PM ET

TACTICAL / HONEST

Model's top pick

#4 Over The Bull

Ho Wesley / Sterling Michael E

M/L

6-5

Model 36% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R02

7 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $5,000

Purse $13,300 · 7 entered · Post 7:30 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#7 Alice's Moon

Raspaldo Jahnxander / Figgins Ollie L Iii

M/L

8-1

Model 20% · favourite is #6

VIEW →
R03

4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $5,000

Purse $14,600 · 7 entered · Post 7:57 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#7 Vissim

Diaz Jose Y / Walters David L

M/L

9-2

Model 20% · favourite is #4

VIEW →
R04

7 Furlongs Dirt · State-Bred Allowance · $38,900 purse

Purse $38,900 · 6 entered · Post 8:25 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#4 Edy's Flame

Barbosa Jeiron / Farrior Anthony

M/L

7-5

Model 30% · favourite is #3

VIEW →
R05

7 Furlongs Dirt · Optional Claiming $15,000

Purse $29,800 · 8 entered · Post 8:53 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#4 Social Chic

Diaz Jose Y / Runco Jeff C

M/L

9-2

Model 23% · favourite is #8

VIEW →
R06

7 Furlongs Dirt · Allowance · $35,300 purse

Purse $35,300 · 8 entered · Post 9:21 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#6 Dorado

Ho Wesley / Contreras Javier

M/L

7-2

Model 22% · favourite is #8

VIEW →
R07

7 Furlongs Dirt · Allowance · $34,100 purse

Purse $34,100 · 7 entered · Post 9:49 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#1 Zachamundo

Bocachica Arnaldo / Runco Jeff C

M/L

2-1

Model 31% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R08

4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · Maiden Claiming $5,000

Purse $13,300 · 7 entered · Post 10:17 AM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#1 El Papacito

Santaella Moises / Brown Ronney W

M/L

9-2

Model 18% · favourite is #7

VIEW →
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