CHARLES TOWN · RACE 4

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $38,900 purse

Field

6 runners

Purse

$38,900

Post

8:25 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#4 · 30%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 82.68

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Edy's Flame (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 81 · 79 · 79. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Petty Perfect at 6-5. Use #5 Lona Lee in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

4Edy's Flame

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 11-for-54 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 10-for-64 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Moonlight Mistress 5-2, R7: Saint Shance 8-1 · Trainer R3: Shessweetlikecandy 7-2, R3: Moonlight Mistress 5-2, R7: Saint Shance 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK12/13 board here

Purse drops from $125,000 to $38,900 against its last start. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Mar 11, in :47.40.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 11 (4F in :47.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 6 wins, 12 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 4 here: 8 wins, 17 top-3 in 41 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

M/L7-5

Model30%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 18d

22ND

3Petty Perfect

Jockey Wilfredo Santiago 25% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Kristy Petty 32% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Trainer this race: Lona Lee 6-1, R6: Neverpopthecork 15-1

13/17 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 84. Finished 3rd in a 9-horse race at CT, beaten 2½ lengths.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ins1/8; 5w1/16; willing last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 111d back)

RECORD 6 wins, 13 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Wilfredo Santiago from post 3 here: 3 wins, 11 top-3 in 37 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L6-5

Model31%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 18d

33RD

5Lona Lee

Jockey J D Acosta 24% career 9-for-58 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Kristy Petty 32% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Stars Over Juba 5-1 · Trainer this race: Petty Perfect 6-5, R6: Neverpopthecork 15-1

10/18 board here

Was 9th of 9 at the first call last time. Sheds 4 pounds from its last start.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 111d ago

RECORD 4 wins, 10 on the board from 18 starts here

RECORD J D Acosta from post 5 here: 13 wins, 56 top-3 in 162 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last5th · 18d

44TH

6Shewonttalktome

Jockey Antonio Lopez 36% career ★ 6-for-19 on dirt this meet (32%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Ronald G Sigler 32% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Road Minister 6-1, R6: Neverpopthecork 15-1 · Trainer this race: Jubaslilballerina 12-1, R6: Tricks R For Juba 4-1

10/17 board here

Beaten 11 lengths for 8th in a 9-horse race at CT. Figures have slipped: 73, 70, 51 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 77d ago

RECORD 5 wins, 10 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Antonio Lopez from post 6 here: 8 wins, 24 top-3 in 62 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last8th · 18d

55TH

2Lil Miss Honkytonk

Jockey Christian Hiraldo 29% career 3-for-32 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Joanna Boggs 26% career

Also today · Jockey R8: Super Banker 10-1 · Trainer R2: Maybeitwas Memphis 9-2, R5: Youthinkthatsfunny 5-1

5/9 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 82 to 75 to 59. Purse drops from $125,000 to $38,900 against its last start.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 326d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Christian Hiraldo from post 2 here: 17 wins, 68 top-3 in 169 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last7th · 18d

1Jubaslilballerina

Jockey Reshawn Latchman 34% career 5-for-31 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Ronald G Sigler 32% career 3-for-27 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Cloudyncool 8-5, R5: No Love For Juba 15-1, R6: Tricks R For Juba 4-1 · Trainer this race: Shewonttalktome 10-1, R6: Tricks R For Juba 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $38,900 today after a $75,000 race last time. 7th last time, 14 lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 3)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bump; press; gaveway), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 2 (3F in :35.80), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Reshawn Latchman from post 1 here: 38 wins, 84 top-3 in 161 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last7th · 18d

At a glance

Market favourite #3 PETTY PERFECT (6-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#3 PETTY PERFECT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (34.1% to their 36.5%).
#4 EDY'S FLAME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (32.3% to their 33.5%).
#5 LONA LEE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 11.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 LIL MISS HONKYTONK (15-1) — our fair 6.0% is above the morning line's 5.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Jubaslilballerina; pressure from #6 Shewonttalktome, #4 Edy's Flame; the shape helps #2 Lil Miss Honkytonk, #3 Petty Perfect, #4 Edy's Flame; and works against #1 Jubaslilballerina, #6 Shewonttalktome.

Lead

1Jubaslilballerina886Shewonttalktome88

Press

4Edy's Flame932Lil Miss Honkytonk913Petty Perfect90

Stalk

none

5Lona Lee78

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Edy's Flame

Lil Miss Honkytonk

Petty Perfect

Jubaslilballerina

Shewonttalktome

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Lona Lee

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5)

PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / PICK 5 (RACES 4-5-6-7-8)

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