CHARLES TOWN · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$13,300

Post

7:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#7 · 20%

Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 82.68

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Alice's Moon (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 56 · 62 · 47. Backup is #6 Far Away Eyes at 8-5. Use #3 Honey I'm Broke in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

7Alice's Moon

Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo 14% career 3-for-48 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Ollie L Iii Figgins 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Sparkleinyoureye 6-1, R8: Great Ending 5-1 · Trainer this race: Far Away Eyes 8-5

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 7 furlongs.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Jahnxander Raspaldo from post 7 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 22 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L8-1

Model20%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last6th · 39d

22ND

6Far Away Eyes

Jockey Sunday Jr Diaz 33% career 4-for-64 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Ollie L Iii Figgins 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Blanches Mule 20-1, R7: My Yoke 10-1 · Trainer this race: Alice's Moon 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Trending the wrong way on speed, 63 to 61 to 49. Tops the field on speed figures, a 72 against 62 for the next best.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5w-trip; weakened. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.40 on Aug 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

M/L8-5

Model30%

Fav?Yes

StyleP

Last5th · 11d

33RD

3Honey I'm Broke

Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 9-for-79 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Ronney W Brown 37% career 10-for-65 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Chelsea's Dream 3-1, R7: Bonsai Warrior 3-1, R8: El Papacito 9-2 · Trainer R7: Bonsai Warrior 3-1, R8: El Papacito 9-2

6/12 board here

Drops from $12,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Finished 6th in an 8-horse $12,500 claiming race at CT, beaten 10 lengths.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 133d ago

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Moises Santaella from post 3 here: 7 wins, 44 top-3 in 87 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

M/L9-5

Model23%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last6th · 14d

44TH

1Hellenic Spirit

Jockey Julio Jorge 14% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Samuel Figueroa 22% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Goes 7 furlongs after running 4½ furlongs last time. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 67 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 3)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump chute; 4w; evenly. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 152d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Julio Jorge from post 1 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 27 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 12d

55TH

5Maybeitwas Memphis

Jockey Bueno Nomar Arroyo 30% career 15-for-84 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Joanna Boggs 26% career

Also today · Jockey R6: York Tavern 20-1 · Trainer R4: Lil Miss Honkytonk 15-1, R5: Youthinkthatsfunny 5-1

CLASS UP

Jockey switch: Christian Hiraldo last out, Bueno Nomar Arroyo today. Last out was 7th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse $15,000 claiming race at CT.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 1)

TROUBLED TRIP Bump; save; empty last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 97 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L9-2

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last7th · 14d

4Reece's Drama

Jockey Edgar Villasmil 16% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter 24% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Joel's Boy 15-1, R8: Shawnpatrick 6-1 · Trainer R8: Shawnpatrick 6-1

Best recent figure is 54, well under the 67 par for this level. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 165d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L12-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 27d

2Flattering Way

Jockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 5-for-51 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Isaac Barahona 14% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Fox Fifty Eight 10-1, R3: Crazy Anita 20-1, R5: Youthinkthatsfunny 5-1, R8: Keep 'em Honest 1-1

Jky 7/37 from post 2

Was running in $12,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. 8th last time, 13 lengths back, in a field of 8.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 19d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Jacqueline A Davis from post 2 here: 7 wins, 15 top-3 in 37 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last8th · 14d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 FAR AWAY EYES (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
#6 FAR AWAY EYES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (30.5% to their 30.7%).
#3 HONEY I'M BROKE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (26.6% to their 28.5%).
#5 MAYBEITWAS MEMPHIS — our #5 number, about right at the windows (13.4% to their 14.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 ALICE'S MOON (8-1) — our fair 12.5% is above the morning line's 8.9%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Hellenic Spirit; pressure from #5 Maybeitwas Memphis; the shape helps #4 Reece's Drama, #6 Far Away Eyes; and works against #1 Hellenic Spirit, #5 Maybeitwas Memphis.

Lead

1Hellenic Spirit835Maybeitwas Memphis81

Press

none

Stalk

4Reece's Drama816Far Away Eyes75

3Honey I'm Broke807Alice's Moon722Flattering Way61

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Hellenic Spirit

Reece's Drama

Maybeitwas Memphis

Far Away Eyes

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Alice's Moon

Flattering Way

Honey I'm Broke

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