CHARLES TOWN · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$14,600

Post

7:57 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#7 · 20%

Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 4 1/2 Furlongs: 50.09

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #7 Vissim (early speed, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 59 · 62 · 62. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Moonlight Mistress at 5-2. Use #2 Sparkleinyoureye in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

7Vissim

Jockey Jose Y Diaz 33% career 7-for-65 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer David L Walters 31% career ★ 4-for-17 on dirt this meet (24%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Social Chic 9-2 · Trainer R5: Royal Pain 3-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/24 from post 7

Fastest 3F work of its morning on Apr 22 (:36.80), a sign it is training forwardly. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 91).

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 22 (3F in :36.80), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Jose Y Diaz has never won from post 7 here (6 top-3 in 24 rides) · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L9-2

Model20%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last3rd · 68d

22ND

4Moonlight Mistress

Jockey Jeiron Barbosa 30% career ★ 11-for-54 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 10-for-64 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Edy's Flame 7-5, R7: Saint Shance 8-1 · Trainer this race: Shessweetlikecandy 7-2, R4: Edy's Flame 7-5, R7: Saint Shance 8-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from allowance to $5,000 claiming. Gets a new rider, Jeiron Barbosa replacing Jose Y Diaz.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Stumbled st; no threat. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.40 on Jul 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Jeiron Barbosa from post 4 here: 8 wins, 17 top-3 in 41 rides · 23% wins from all posts here

M/L5-2

Model22%

Fav?Yes

StyleP

Last6th · 25d

33RD

2Sparkleinyoureye

Jockey Jahnxander Raspaldo 14% career 3-for-48 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Michael E Jr Jones 25% career 4-for-33 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Alice's Moon 8-1, R8: Great Ending 5-1 · Trainer R8: Great Ending 5-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Returns from a 114-day break, the biggest in the field. A big drop, optional claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 24 (3F in :36.00), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Jahnxander Raspaldo from post 2 here: 4 wins, 14 top-3 in 26 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 114d

44TH

5Chelsea's Dream

Jockey Moises Santaella 26% career 9-for-79 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Timothy Shanley 22% career 8-for-72 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Honey I'm Broke 9-5, R7: Bonsai Warrior 3-1, R8: El Papacito 9-2 · Trainer this race: Saucy Boss 6-1, R6: Blanches Mule 20-1, R7: My Yoke 10-1

8/15 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 66 to 65 to 54. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 47d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 8 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Moises Santaella from post 5 here: 17 wins, 50 top-3 in 89 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

M/L3-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 40d

55TH

3Crazy Anita

Jockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 5-for-51 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Osborne Smith 32% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Fox Fifty Eight 10-1, R2: Flattering Way 15-1, R5: Youthinkthatsfunny 5-1, R8: Keep 'em Honest 1-1

A 47 is the high figure lately, short of the 72 par. Worked 3F in :37.20 on Feb 13, 3rd of 15 at the distance.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (3F in :36.60), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 12 starts here

RECORD Jacqueline A Davis from post 3 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 44 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last7th · 12d

1Shessweetlikecandy

Jockey Wesley Ho 31% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Anthony Farrior 41% career 10-for-64 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Over The Bull 6-5, R5: Sharpasadiamond 8-1, R6: Dorado 7-2, R8: Chargeaholic 8-1 · Trainer this race: Moonlight Mistress 5-2, R4: Edy's Flame 7-5, R7: Saint Shance 8-1

WON LAST7/13 board here

Winner of a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at CT last time. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 64 against a 72 par.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 242 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 13 starts here

RECORD Wesley Ho from post 1 here: 14 wins, 38 top-3 in 78 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 12d

6Saucy Boss

Jockey Alexis Jr Rios-Conde 16% career 3-for-29 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Timothy Shanley 22% career 8-for-72 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Caffeinennicotine 5-2 · Trainer this race: Chelsea's Dream 3-1, R6: Blanches Mule 20-1, R7: My Yoke 10-1

Last out was 2nd, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at CT. Figures are climbing: 39, 57, 62 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 96 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Alexis Jr Rios-Conde from post 6 here: 2 wins, 2 top-3 in 24 rides · 4% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 12d

At a glance

Market favourite #4 MOONLIGHT MISTRESS (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#4 MOONLIGHT MISTRESS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.4%).
#5 CHELSEA'S DREAM — our #4 number, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 19.6%).
#7 VISSIM — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.5%, they've got 14.3%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 VISSIM — we make it 16.5%, the morning line works out to 14.3%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Vissim; pressure from #6 Saucy Boss, #5 Chelsea's Dream; the shape helps #3 Crazy Anita; and works against #5 Chelsea's Dream, #6 Saucy Boss, #7 Vissim.

Lead

7Vissim916Saucy Boss895Chelsea's Dream76

Press

1Shessweetlikecandy90

Stalk

2Sparkleinyoureye854Moonlight Mistress74

3Crazy Anita83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Vissim

Shessweetlikecandy

Saucy Boss

Sparkleinyoureye

Chelsea's Dream

Moonlight Mistress

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Crazy Anita

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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