CHARLES TOWN · RACE 6
UPCOMINGAllowance · $35,300 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 82.68
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Dorado (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 88 · 88 · 79. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #8 Spotafreeone at 8-5. Use #1 Neverpopthecork in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
An 88 in its last five clears the 82 par for this level. Winner of a 10-horse race at CT last time.
Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going 1 1/8 miles. Owns the highest recent figure here at 89.
Runs for $35,300 today after a $300,000 race last time. Finished 9th in a 10-horse race at CT, beaten 18 lengths.
Purse drops from $75,000 to $35,300 against its last start. Last out was 4th, 7 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse race at CT.
Returns from a 129-day break, the biggest in the field. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 7 furlongs.
Has moved up each time out, 52 to 62 to 79. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse allowance race at CT.
0 for 6 at today's distance. A 76 top number against a 82 par, so it fits the level.
A step up in company: $10,000 claiming before, allowance today. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 SPOTAFREEONE (8-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #8 SPOTAFREEONE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (29.7% to their 30.2%).
- #6 DORADO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.4%).
- #2 TRICKS R FOR JUBA — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.9% to their 15.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 NEVERPOPTHECORK (15-1) — our fair 5.9% is above the morning line's 4.9%; supported by: top barn (32%) + jockey (36%) at 15-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Capovivo; pressure from #4 Go Joe Won, #2 Tricks R For Juba; the shape helps #2 Tricks R For Juba, #5 Blanches Mule, #6 Dorado; and works against #3 Capovivo, #4 Go Joe Won.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 6-7)
$3 LATE PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta