R1 CTD · Claiming $12,000

3:45 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $15,000 · 5 runners3:45 PM · 6½f Dirt · 5 runners

Upcoming $15K · Claiming $12,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 She's a Rowski (9-2) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 73 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Porter's Princess▼A. Allen · S. BiggsAllen · BiggsB62 50 53▲▲+12@trip 6220-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best62 50 53@trip 62B▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 72
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 62 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 50 53
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 72
Jockey Anthony J Allen 30% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Seymour Biggs 20% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)
Also today · Trainer this race: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: Stay Up 8-1, R4: Texas Humor 9-2, R6: We The Fringe 30-1 +1 more
A step up in company: $8,000 claiming before, $12,000 claiming today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 62 against a 72 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 28d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k n2l 9th/11 -2¾L 62 102-1 b Stalkedpace;gaveway
10/9 CTD 7f D Clm 6k n2l 7th/9 -8½L 50 37-1 b Outsprinted;faded
9/11 CML 7f D MCL 6k Won/7 53 12-1 b Held under drive

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	9th/11 -2¾L	62	102-1	b	Stalkedpace;gaveway
10/9	CTD	7f D	Clm 6k n2l	7th/9 -8½L	50	37-1	b	Outsprinted;faded
9/11	CML	7f D	MCL 6k	Won/7	53	12-1	b	Held under drive

2Devas Charm▼K. Natera · R. ConeNatera · ConeB63 58 52▲+6@trip 612-1Fair 5-227%▲ Up +663 58 52@trip 61B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 723

Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 58 52

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Rodney Cone 28% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Light Fast Feet 9-2, R3: Sportscarr 15-1, R4: Betty Jo 5-2, R5: Lemon Meringue 6-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: El Bonita Cara 5-2

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 6-horse maiden claiming $8,000 race at CTD at 0.5-1. Figures are climbing: 52, 58, 63 over its last three.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 36d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	7½f D	MCL 6k	Won/6	63	0.5-1	L	Stalked2w;geareddown
10/2	CTD	7f D	Moc16000	8th/9 -5¾L	58	32-1	L	Stmbld;drppdbck;no bid
9/12	CML	1 1/16 D	fsAlbertaOak60k	8th/8 -16L	52	41-1	L	Prominent; tired

3SpadinaC. Vidaurri · C. FreyVidaurri · FreyA68 62 47▲▲+10↕@trip 689-5Fair 5-230%▲▲ Big jump +1068 62 47 ↕@trip 68A1

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–68 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 62 47

Jockey Cesar Vidaurri 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Carson Frey 27% career ★ 6-for-19 on dirt this meet (32%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Smokin Joy 30-1 · Trainer R3: Squalotoro 10-1, R8: Thompson 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Moves up from $6,000 claiming to $12,000 claiming. Has moved up each time out, 47 to 62 to 68.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 16 (4F in :46.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	3rd/11	68	13-1	L	Showedway;worndown
10/9	CTD	7f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/9 -1L	62	5.5-1	L	Set pace;steadied
9/20	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	7th/8 -3½L	47	8.1-1	L	Fanned3w;yielded

4She's a Rowski★O. Foster · S. BiggsFoster · BiggsA62 62 73►↕@trip 739-2Fair 8-111%► Steady62 62 73 ↕@trip 73A★ Best at the trip 73

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 62 73

★ Best at the trip 73

Jockey Orlando Foster 30% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Seymour Biggs 20% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R2: H K Mimi 20-1, R4: Everything To Gain 20-1, R5: Victoria's Chief 20-1, R6: We The Fringe 30-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Porter's Princess 20-1, R2: Stay Up 8-1, R4: Texas Humor 9-2, R6: We The Fringe 30-1 +1 more

3/5 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 73. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 71d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	8th/11 -5¼L	62	7.7-1	L	Fan3w;waited;laterally
10/9	CTD	7f D	Clm 6k n2l	6th/9 -1½L	62	4.2-1	L	Fan4w;flattened out
9/25	CTD	6½f D	MCL 6k	Won/6	73	1.0-1	L	Stalked;riddenout

5El Bonita CaraJ. Asencio · R. ConeAsencio · ConeA59 64 59▼-4≡@trip 665-2Fair 5-229%▼ Down -459 64 59 ≡@trip 66A2

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 59–66 · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 64 59

Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Rodney Cone 28% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Squalotoro 10-1, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1, R6: Kauai Dan 5-2, R7: Parking Permit 5-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Devas Charm 2-1

0/3 board here

Jose Mariano Asencio takes over from Keihton Natera in the saddle. 3rd of 12 at 5F on Jun 6, in 1:01.20.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	7f D	Alw n2l	6th/7 -7½L	59	44-1	b L	Fan3w;late mild bid
10/2	CTD	6½f D	Alw n2l	7th/8 -8½L	64	44-1	b L	Bmpd;never involved
9/20	CTD	6f D	Clm 12k b	4th/5 -4½L	59	2.5-1	b L	Offered little

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $12,000

Field

5 runners

Purse

$15,000

Post

3:45 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 30%

Claiming $12,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 75.26

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Spadina (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 68 · 62 · 47. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 El Bonita Cara at 5-2. Use #2 Devas Charm in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 SPADINA (9-5) — our number agrees.
#3 SPADINA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.6% to their 29.6%).
#2 DEVAS CHARM — our #3 number, about right at the windows (28.0% to their 27.6%).
#5 EL BONITA CARA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.6% to their 23.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Spadina; pressure from #1 Porter's Princess, #2 Devas Charm; the shape helps #2 Devas Charm, #4 She's A Rowski; and works against #1 Porter's Princess, #3 Spadina.

Lead

3Spadina981Porter's Princess94

Press

2Devas Charm904She's A Rowski80

Stalk

none

5El Bonita Cara83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Spadina

Porter's Princess

Devas Charm

She's A Rowski

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

El Bonita Cara

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