R3 CTD · State-Bred Allowance · $14,500 purse

4:39 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $14,500 · 8 runners4:39 PM · 6½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $14K · State-Bred Allowance · $14,500 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Squalotoro▼J. Asencio · C. FreyAsencio · FreyB70 69 83▼-6@trip 7510-1Fair 12-17%▼ Down -670 69 83@trip 75B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 69 83

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Carson Frey 27% career ★ 6-for-19 on dirt this meet (32%)

Also today · Jockey R1: El Bonita Cara 5-2, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1, R6: Kauai Dan 5-2, R7: Parking Permit 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Spadina 9-5, R8: Thompson 20-1

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 9-horse $6,500 claiming race at CTD at 3.2-1. Owns the highest recent figure here at 83.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 31d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	Won/9 by ½	70	3.2-1	b L	Outsprinted;won drivng
9/11	CML	6f D	Clm 6k b	4th/6 -4L	69	1.8-1	b L	Bmpd;5w;lacked kick
8/21	CML	5½f D	Clm 4k b	Won/5 by 3	83	3.0-1	b L	Clsd determineldy;up

2SandiniK. Santo · C. SmithSanto · SmithC66 69 55►12-1Fair 15-16%► Steady66 69 55C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 66 69 55

Jockey Kimal Santo 28% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Aintafraidtodream 12-1, R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, R6: Wandalita 20-1, R7: Somthing Elusive 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: American Farmer 7-2, R6: Attack 9-2, R7: Classy City 15-1, R9: Green Amazon 20-1 +1 more

Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6½ furlongs. Best recent figure is 73, well under the 82 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CTD	1 1/16 D	Alw s	3rd/6 -3L	66	3.2-1	b L	Vied;prssd;weakened
8/29	CML	7f D	OC 8k	8th/8 -10L	69	5.8-1	b L	Sprinted;gaveway
9/12	CT	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k bc	7th/7 -17L	55	3.1-1	b L	Saved ground;no factor

3Border SongA. Perez · M. CloutierPerez · CloutierA73 75 65►@trip 807-5Fair 3-240%► Steady73 75 65@trip 80A1

Card model 40% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 75 65

Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 19-for-73 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Mark Cloutier 24% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 34

Also today · Jockey R2: Just Scarlett 8-5, R5: All Run 8-1, R6: Flashfordani 12-1, R7: St. Elmo 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: St. Elmo 4-1

WON LAST2/3 board here

New trainer: Tom Rycroft had it last time, Mark Cloutier now. Winner of a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at CTD last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Stalked; drew off.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 128d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	7½f D	Clm 5k c	Won/6	73	1.3-1	b L	Stalked;drew off
10/3	CTD	7½f D	Clm 6k b	Won/9	75	2.2-1	b L	Fan3w;drew clear
9/26	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 8k	4th/7 -5½L	65	3.8-1	b L	Stalked4w;chsd;faded

4Samurai Challenge▼K. Chase · W. SmithChase · SmithC56 51 46►@trip 6620-1Fair 99-11%► Steady56 51 46@trip 66C▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 66 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 51 46
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Kemar Richard Chase 16% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer W Darcy Smith 32% career
Also today · Jockey R5: Legal Assassin 20-1, R9: Rattlesnake Jack 30-1 · Trainer R7: Borderland 20-1, R8: Piccata Prince 30-1, R9: Wickedblackbullet 30-1, R9: Rattlesnake Jack 30-1
LASIX 1ST
A step up in company: $3,200 claiming before, starter allowance today. Has moved up each time out, 46 to 51 to 56.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 183d ago
RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 LBG -5½f D Clm 3k 2nd/5 -5½L — 6.0-1 Late stretch drive
10/3 LBG -5½f D Alw b 3rd/5 -5L — 9.9-1 Stalked pace
9/12 LBG -6f D Alw b 5th/5 -2¾L 56 8.1-1 No threat
5Tool Time▲E. Gonzalez · T. RycroftGonzalez · RycroftA72 76 80▼-4≡@trip 765-2Fair 3-125%▼ Down -472 76 80 ≡@trip 76A▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 72–80 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 76 80
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez 33% career ★ 8-for-37 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Tim Rycroft 36% career ★ 13-for-63 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Dreaming D'Oro 3-1, R8: Wico 8-1, R9: Man At The Pulpit 20-1 · Trainer R2: Dreaming D'Oro 3-1, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1, R9: Fed Boy 12-1
CLASS DROPWON LAST2/4 board here
Figures have slipped: 80, 76, 72 over its last three. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 CTD 6½f D Clm 5k Won/7 72 1.1-1 b L Stalked3w;drewaway
10/10 CTD 6½f D Clm 8k 4th/10 76 5.0-1 b L Pace;yielded late
9/11 CML 5½f D OC 8k Won/6 by 1½ 80 1.0-1 b L Clsd steadily;up

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/10	LBG	-5½f D	Clm 3k	2nd/5 -5½L	—	6.0-1	Late stretch drive
10/3	LBG	-5½f D	Alw b	3rd/5 -5L	—	9.9-1	Stalked pace
9/12	LBG	-6f D	Alw b	5th/5 -2¾L	56	8.1-1	No threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	6½f D	Clm 5k	Won/7	72	1.1-1	b L	Stalked3w;drewaway
10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 8k	4th/10	76	5.0-1	b L	Pace;yielded late
9/11	CML	5½f D	OC 8k	Won/6 by 1½	80	1.0-1	b L	Clsd steadily;up

6Pump the Brakes▼B. Boodramsingh · R. HensonBoodramsingh · HensonA71 58 73►@trip 768-1Fair 8-111%► Steady71 58 73@trip 76A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises3

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 58 73

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Robert Henson 37% career 5-for-12 on dirt this meet (42%), #2 of 34

Also today · Jockey R4: B B Beth 3-1, R6: Fireman Dan 8-5, R7: Jump The Queue 6-1, R8: Drinking Again 2-1 +1 more

WON LAST4/5 board here

Comes in off a victory in an 11-horse $8,500 claiming race at CTD. Drops from $8,500 claiming to starter allowance.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.80 on Apr 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	Won/11 by 2	71	5.0-1	b L	Held under drive
10/9	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	8th/9 -7¼L	58	5.3-1	b L	Squeezedout;chased
9/12	CML	6f D	sRedDiaExpH60k	4th/7 -7½L	73	26-1	b L	Angled out; late rally

7ShashashakemeupR. Balgobin · J. BrownBalgobin · BrownB67 70 62►≡@trip 708-1Fair 15-16%► Steady67 70 62 ≡@trip 70B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 62–70 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 70 62

Jockey Ridge Balgobin 27% career 7-for-62 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Rapture Bay 10-1, R7: Kystone 20-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1, R9: Where's The Gold 15-1 · Trainer R5: Lemon Meringue 6-1, R7: Kystone 20-1, R8: Sparklet 3-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLECLASS DROP

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 70 against a 82 par. Turns back in 7 days.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 25 (5F in :58.60), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	6½f D	Clm 5k	2nd/7 -3½L	67	5.7-1	b L	Lacked room;held on
10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 8k	9th/10 -8L	70	53-1	b L	Asked 3-4w;no threat
9/11	CML	5½f D	OC 8k	6th/6 -8½L	62	9.3-1	b L	Bumped;trailed

8SportscarrK. Natera · R. HeggieNatera · HeggieB60 68 70▼▼-12@trip 7815-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1260 68 70@trip 78B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 68 70

Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Rod Heggie 22% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Devas Charm 2-1, R2: Light Fast Feet 9-2, R4: Betty Jo 5-2, R5: Lemon Meringue 6-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Legal Assassin 20-1

Was 11th of 11 at the first call last time. 3rd of 13 at 5F on May 24, in 1:00.40.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 50 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	9th/11 -7¼L	60	7.3-1	L	Drifted;mild interest
10/3	CTD	7½f D	Clm 6k b	5th/9 -5½L	68	8.0-1	L	Fanned3w;missed
9/20	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	Won/5 by 4½	70	4.8-1	L	Lagged;up in time

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 3

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $14,500 purse

Field

8 runners

Purse

$14,500

Post

4:39 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 40%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 75.26

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Border Song (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 73 · 75 · 65. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Tool Time at 5-2. Use #6 Pump The Brakes in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 BORDER SONG (7-5) — our number agrees.
#3 BORDER SONG — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (34.7% to their 34.6%).
#5 TOOL TIME — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.4% to their 23.8%).
#6 PUMP THE BRAKES — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 10.2%, the board 9.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Sandini; pressure from #3 Border Song, #5 Tool Time; the shape helps #1 Squalotoro, #3 Border Song, #4 Samurai Challenge; and works against #2 Sandini.

Lead

2Sandini80

Press

3Border Song915Tool Time911Squalotoro886Pump The Brakes888Sportscarr74

Stalk

7Shashashakemeup864Samurai Challenge

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Border Song

Tool Time

Squalotoro

Pump The Brakes

Shashashakemeup

Sandini

Sportscarr

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Samurai Challenge

Sandini

Tool Time

Pump The Brakes

Shashashakemeup

Sportscarr

Border Song

Squalotoro

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