R2 CTD · Claiming $6,500

4:12 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $14,500 · 8 runners4:12 PM · 6½f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $14K · Claiming $6,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1H K MimiO. Foster · C. ReidFoster · ReidC57 46 65►@trip 7520-1Fair 30-13%► Steady57 46 65@trip 75C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 46 65

Jockey Orlando Foster 30% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Colton Reid 28% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R4: Everything To Gain 20-1, R5: Victoria's Chief 20-1, R6: We The Fringe 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Pacheco 30-1

CLASS DROP2/4 board here

Was running in optional claiming; today's $6,500 claiming is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Outrun throughout last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 14d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/23	CTD	6f D	OC 8k	6th/6 -7¼L	57	14-1	Outrun throughout
10/9	CTD	6½f D	OC 17k n3l	10th/10 -13L	46	40-1	Trailed throughout
9/12	CML	1 1/16 D	fsFllClscDfH60k	4th/4 -11L	65	30-1	2-w; no threat

2Stay Up▲K. Carter · S. BiggsCarter · BiggsB72 66 74►≡@trip 778-1Fair 15-17%► Steady72 66 74 ≡@trip 77B▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 72

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 66–74 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 66 74

▲ Last fig 72 at/above par 72

Jockey Kyle Carter 25% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Seymour Biggs 20% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Texas Humor 9-2, R6: Pacheco 30-1, R7: Ameer 15-1, R8: Thompson 20-1 · Trainer R1: Porter's Princess 20-1, R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R4: Texas Humor 9-2, R6: We The Fringe 30-1 +1 more

4/5 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, a 77 against 75 for the next best. Finished 4th in an 8-horse $6,500 claiming race at CTD, beaten 2 lengths.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Apr 10; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	4th/8 -2L	72	7.1-1	L	Even effort; outkicked
9/19	CTD	6f D	Clm 5k	3rd/5 -6L	66	2.8-1	L	Trailed;late bid
9/7	CML	6f D	Clm 4k b	Won/5 by 1½	74	1.1-1	L	Tookup;wondriving

3Where's the PumpsK. Trotman · C. RumseyTrotman · RumseyB71 62 55▲▲+20↕@trip 6210-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best71 62 55 ↕@trip 62B
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 35–71 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 62 55
Jockey Keimar Trotman 27% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Cory Rumsey 15% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Caravalla 15-1, R6: Bobby Dazzler 10-1, R7: Thiscatsgotspeed 15-1, R8: Hyperfocus 12-1 · Trainer R4: Everything To Gain 20-1, R9: Hangin' Tuff 20-1
CLASS DROPWON LAST6/8 board here
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $4,000 claiming race at CTD. Figures are climbing: 55, 62, 71 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago
RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/23 CTD 6f D Clm 4k b Won/7 71 5.3-1 L Setpace;held firm
10/10 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 8th/8 -7½L 62 28-1 L Dueled; took up 1/4
10/2 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 7th/8 -9L 55 25-1 b L No threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	Won/7	71	5.3-1	L	Setpace;held firm
10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	8th/8 -7½L	62	28-1	L	Dueled; took up 1/4
10/2	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	7th/8 -9L	55	25-1	b L	No threat

4Light Fast Feet★K. Natera · R. GrievesNatera · GrievesB63 71 61►@trip 809-2Fair 7-112%► Steady63 71 61@trip 80B★ Best at the trip 803

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 71 61

★ Best at the trip 80

Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ron Grieves 26% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Devas Charm 2-1, R3: Sportscarr 15-1, R4: Betty Jo 5-2, R5: Lemon Meringue 6-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Crown Of Cairo 6-1

Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $6,500 claiming. 3rd of 13 at 5F on Sep 19, in 1:01.80.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	2nd/10 -1L	63	4.0-1	b L	Stalked;lacked kick
9/26	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	3rd/7 -½L	71	3.3-1	L	Setpace;weakened
8/14	CML	5½f D	Clm 4k b	7th/8 -7L	61	3.4-1	L	4;6-w; no factor

5Goldie SocksS. Morales · K. ShearerMorales · ShearerC49 60 65▼▼-15@trip 7020-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1549 60 65@trip 70C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 60 65
Jockey Silvino Morales 32% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Krista A Shearer 20% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Trapeze 10-1, R6: Newhart 15-1, R9: J Dutton 4-1
LASIX 1ST
Goes 6½ furlongs after running -6 furlongs last time. Trending the wrong way on speed, 65 to 60 to 49.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 180d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 LBG -6f D Alw b 6th/6 -10L 49 3.8-1 b No threat
9/27 LBG 7f D frBCupFM11k 3rd/6 -2L 60 10-1 b Evenly
9/13 LBG -6f D Alw b Won/5 65 1.8-1 b Drew clear late
6Just ScarlettA. Perez · E. GutierrezPerez · GutierrezA70 73 64►@trip 738-5Fair 3-240%► Steady70 73 64@trip 73A1
Card model 40% · Fair odds 3-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 73 64
Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 19-for-73 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Erick Gutierrez 32% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Border Song 7-5, R5: All Run 8-1, R6: Flashfordani 12-1, R7: St. Elmo 4-1 +2 more
WON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 10-horse $4,000 claiming race at CTD at 3.5-1. Raises its level, $4,000 claiming last time and $6,500 claiming now.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 23d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 CTD 6f D Clm 4k b Won/10 70 3.5-1 L 3w;sweptlead;drewoff
9/26 CTD 6½f D Clm 4k b 2nd/7 73 4.2-1 L Fanned3w;outfinished
9/5 CML 6f D Clm 4k b 4th/8 -3½L 64 4.5-1 L Tracked6w;flattened
7Dreaming D'oroE. Gonzalez · T. RycroftGonzalez · RycroftA71 69 66►≡@trip 713-1Fair 9-218%► Steady71 69 66 ≡@trip 71A2
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 66–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 69 66
Jockey Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez 33% career ★ 8-for-37 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Tim Rycroft 36% career ★ 13-for-63 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Tool Time 5-2, R8: Wico 8-1, R9: Man At The Pulpit 20-1 · Trainer R3: Tool Time 5-2, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1, R9: Fed Boy 12-1
WON LAST2/3 board here
2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Winner of a 7-horse $6,000 claiming race at CTD last time.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 80 days ago
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b Won/7 71 3.2-1 L Bmpd;drove clear
10/2 CTD 7½f D Clm 6k b 4th/6 -1½L 69 2.6-1 L Brkin;chsd;gaveway
9/19 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 3rd/8 -5L 66 5.5-1 L Bmpd;svd;late bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	LBG	-6f D	Alw b	6th/6 -10L	49	3.8-1	b	No threat
9/27	LBG	7f D	frBCupFM11k	3rd/6 -2L	60	10-1	b	Evenly
9/13	LBG	-6f D	Alw b	Won/5	65	1.8-1	b	Drew clear late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	Won/10	70	3.5-1	L	3w;sweptlead;drewoff
9/26	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	2nd/7	73	4.2-1	L	Fanned3w;outfinished
9/5	CML	6f D	Clm 4k b	4th/8 -3½L	64	4.5-1	L	Tracked6w;flattened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	Won/7	71	3.2-1	L	Bmpd;drove clear
10/2	CTD	7½f D	Clm 6k b	4th/6 -1½L	69	2.6-1	L	Brkin;chsd;gaveway
9/19	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/8 -5L	66	5.5-1	L	Bmpd;svd;late bid

8Crown of Cairo▲N. Prescod · R. GrievesPrescod · GrievesA73 64 65▲+7≡@trip 736-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +7 · career best73 64 65 ≡@trip 73A▲ Last fig 73 at/above par 72

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 64–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 64 65

▲ Last fig 73 at/above par 72

Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Ron Grieves 26% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Attack 9-2, R7: Barberry Bandit 20-1 · Trainer this race: Light Fast Feet 9-2

2/4 board here

Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call. 0 for 5 at today's distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 42 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/8 -2½L	73	14-1	L	Traild;circld;rally3rd
9/26	CTD	7½f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/7 -5½L	64	20-1	L	5w;clsd 2w
8/29	CML	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	3rd/8	65	7.3-1	L	4w;outkicked;nipped

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $6,500

Field

8 runners

Purse

$14,500

Post

4:12 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 40%

Claiming $6,500, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 75.26

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Just Scarlett (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 70 · 73 · 64. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Dreaming D'Oro at 3-1. Use #4 Light Fast Feet in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 JUST SCARLETT (8-5) — our number agrees.
#6 JUST SCARLETT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.7% to their 30.6%).
#7 DREAMING D'ORO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 19.9%).
#4 LIGHT FAST FEET — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 14.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Where's The Pumps; pressure from #2 Stay Up, #4 Light Fast Feet; the shape helps #2 Stay Up, #4 Light Fast Feet, #5 Goldie Socks; and works against #3 Where's The Pumps.

Lead

3Where's The Pumps88

Press

2Stay Up934Light Fast Feet936Just Scarlett895Goldie Socks80

Stalk

none

7Dreaming D'Oro838Crown Of Cairo791H K Mimi60

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Stay Up

Light Fast Feet

Just Scarlett

Where's The Pumps

Goldie Socks

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Crown Of Cairo

H K Mimi

Dreaming D'Oro

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