R6 CTD · Optional Claiming $25,000

6:09 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $21,500 · 10 runners6:09 PM · 7½f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $22K · Optional Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Bobby Dazzler▲K. Trotman · C. O'HaganTrotman · O'HaganC78 64 82►@trip 7810-1Fair 12-17%► Steady78 64 82@trip 78C▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 78

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 64 82

    ▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 78
    Jockey Keimar Trotman 27% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Colleen O'Hagan 21% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Where's The Pumps 10-1, R4: Caravalla 15-1, R7: Thiscatsgotspeed 15-1, R8: Hyperfocus 12-1
    2/4 board here

    Last out was 3rd, a head behind the winner, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at CTD. A 90 in its last five clears the 78 par for this level.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 85 days ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10CTD7½f DOC 25k n4l3rd/9 by hd7813-1b LMet bids;yielded late
    9/26CTD7½f DAlw nc7th/7 -6½L6415-1b LShowed little
    9/4CML1 1/16 DAlw n$y3rd/8 -3¼L8211-1b LSwung4-5w;closed
  2. 2Crusher Royale▲L. Steadman · G. AndersonSteadman · AndersonB79 64 85▲+5@trip 7920-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +579 64 85@trip 79B▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 78

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 64 85

    ▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 78
    Jockey Linton Leon Steadman 22% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Gonzalo Anderson 33% career 6-for-54 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more
    CLASS DROP

    Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now. Figure of 90 on the record sits above the 78 par.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Sttld; bid5w; rallied2nd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 42d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10CTD7½f DOC 17k n3l2nd/7 -2¼L795.8-1b LSttld;bid5w;rallied2nd
    9/25CTD6½f DOC 25k n4l6th/8 -8L643.9-1b LOffered little
    7/13CML1 1/16 DCtyMileH Stk6th/8 by nk857.2-1b L4w;rallied3w;gaveway
  3. 3Fireman DanB. Boodramsingh · J. ConeyBoodramsingh · ConeyA77 96 93▼▼-168-5Fair 2-133%▼▼ Big drop -1677 96 93A1

    Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Last 3 figs 77 96 93

    Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jason Coney 29% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Pump The Brakes 8-1, R4: B B Beth 3-1, R7: Jump The Queue 6-1, R8: Drinking Again 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Eitherinorintheway 6-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Shortens up to 7½ furlongs after going 1 1/8 miles. Purse drops from $50,000 to $21,500 against its last start.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 2; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10CTD1⅛m DDonGettyH50k3rd/6772.8-1b LPace;yielded;grdgnngly
    8/22CML1¼m DSpdSprChm StkWon/12966.3-1b LSet pace;easy victory
    7/13CML1 1/16 DCtyMileH Stk2nd/8 by hd937.5-1b LSvd4w;needed more
  4. 4NewhartS. Morales · M. SnowMorales · SnowB77 85 92▼▼-8@trip 7715-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -877 85 92@trip 77B

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 85 92

    Jockey Silvino Morales 32% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Mel Snow 23% career ★ 5-for-24 on dirt this meet (21%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Goldie Socks 20-1, R5: Trapeze 10-1, R9: J Dutton 4-1

    Figures have slipped: 92, 85, 77 over its last three. Has run 92 against a 78 par for the class.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Swung 4-5w; gaining last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 10 (3F in :35.40), 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10CTD7½f DOC 25k n4l4th/9 -4L7712-1b LSwung 4-5w;gaining
    10/2CTD1 1/16 DOC 25k n4l3rd/7 -4L858.0-1b L3w;chsd;worndown
    9/7CML1 1/16 DOC 17k n3lWon/8 by 4928.7-1b LAlong in time
  5. 5Pacheco▲K. Carter · C. ReidCarter · ReidB85 82 76▲+6≡30-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +6 · career best85 82 76 ≡B▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 78

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 76–85 · Last 3 figs 85 82 76

    ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 78
    Jockey Kyle Carter 25% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Colton Reid 28% career 0-for-10 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Stay Up 8-1, R4: Texas Humor 9-2, R7: Ameer 15-1, R8: Thompson 20-1 · Trainer R2: H K Mimi 20-1
    3/3 board here

    Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. Has moved up each time out, 76 to 82 to 85.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 14d back
    RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/2CTD1 1/16 DOC 25k n4l2nd/7 -8L8515-1LUnhurried;closed late
    9/12CML1 1/16 DsAlbertaBrH60k2nd/8 by nk8218-1LBump; wide; rallied
    8/22CML1 1/16 DOC 17k n3l6th/10 -6L7641-1LLagged;mild rally
  6. 6FlashfordaniA. Perez · K. KingstonPerez · KingstonC68 84 88▼▼-17@trip 6812-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -1768 84 88@trip 68C

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 84 88

    Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 19-for-73 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Karline Kingston 23% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Just Scarlett 8-5, R3: Border Song 7-5, R5: All Run 8-1, R7: St. Elmo 4-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Kauai Dan 5-2, R8: Lansdowne 6-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here

    Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call. The Sep 5 work, 4F in :46.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 5; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26CTD7½f DAlw nc6th/7 -4½L689.2-1LMild interest late
    9/12CML1 1/16 DsAlbertaBrH60kWon/8841.8-1LBump; wide; clear
    7/25CML1 1/16 DAlw n$y4th/5 -2½L889.7-1LSvd ground;lacked bid
  7. 7Attack▲N. Prescod · C. SmithPrescod · SmithA79 82 78▼-3≡@trip 799-2Fair 7-112%▼ Down -379 82 78 ≡@trip 79A▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 783

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 78–87 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 82 78

    ▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 78
    Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Crown Of Cairo 6-1, R7: Barberry Bandit 20-1 · Trainer R3: Sandini 12-1, R5: American Farmer 7-2, R7: Classy City 15-1, R9: Green Amazon 20-1 +1 more

    Worked 4F in :47.40 on Jun 6, 2nd of 7 at the distance. Has run 92 against a 78 par for the class.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 56 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10CTD7½f DOC 25k n4l2nd/9793.7-1b LStalked;vied;outfinish
    9/16ASD1⅛m DGoldCup51k5th/8 -5½L8211-1b LSvd grd; lacked rly
    8/22CML1¼m DSpdSprChm Stk11th/12 -10L7814-1b LFan4w;faded gradually
  8. 8Kauai DanJ. Asencio · K. KingstonAsencio · KingstonA72 79 86▼▼-8@trip 795-2Fair 3-124%▼▼ Big drop -872 79 86@trip 79A2

    Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 79 86

    Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Karline Kingston 23% career ★ 6-for-26 on dirt this meet (23%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: El Bonita Cara 5-2, R3: Squalotoro 10-1, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1, R7: Parking Permit 5-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Flashfordani 12-1, R8: Lansdowne 6-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK3/3 board here

    Turns back in 7 days. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 7½ furlongs today.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Brushd; dueled; outfnsh last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 17; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/24CTD6f DOC 25k n4l2nd/6721.4-1b LBrushd;dueled;outfnsh
    10/10CTD7½f DOC 25k n4lWon/9 by 1796.5-1b LBid 3w;responded;held
    8/24ASD6f DOC 22k b3rd/6 -4L8612-1b L4-5-wd; fin well
  9. 9Wandalita▲LSK. Santo · G. OlaldeSanto · OlaldeC71 80 82▼▼-1120-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1171 80 82C▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 71 80 82

    ▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Kimal Santo 28% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Geovani Olalde 14% career ★ 4-for-15 on dirt this meet (27%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Sandini 12-1, R4: Aintafraidtodream 12-1, R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, R7: Somthing Elusive 3-1 +2 more

    Carries 119 pounds, 6 less than last time. Trending the wrong way on speed, 82 to 80 to 71.

    PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 4)
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25CTD7f DOC 25k n4l2nd/8714.4-1b LStalked;outkicked
    9/7CML7f DClm 32k3rd/6 by hd803.0-1b LBumped;ral3w;weakened
    8/8CML7f DOC 25k n4l2nd/9822.4-1LSettled;outkicked
  10. 10We the Fringe▲O. Foster · S. BiggsFoster · BiggsC68 69 85▼▼-830-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -868 69 85C▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 17%) cutting back to a sprint

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 68 69 85

    ▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 17%) cutting back to a sprint
    Jockey Orlando Foster 30% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Seymour Biggs 20% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: H K Mimi 20-1, R4: Everything To Gain 20-1, R5: Victoria's Chief 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Porter's Princess 20-1, R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: Stay Up 8-1, R4: Texas Humor 9-2 +1 more
    2/3 board here

    Runs for $21,500 today after a $50,000 race last time. Cuts back from 1 1/8 miles to 7½ furlongs.

    PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 2)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 55d back)
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10CTD1⅛m DFndrDstH50k3rd/5 -6L6827-1LPrssd2w;passd for 2nd
    9/25CTD7f DOC 25k n4l3rd/8 -2L6911-1LTraffic;3w;late bid
    9/12CML1 1/16 DfsFllClscDfH60k2nd/4 -½L8517-1LVied; 2nd best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART7 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

CTD · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $25,000

Field
10 runners
Purse
$21,500
Post
6:09 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#3 · 33%

Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won four races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 88.9

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Fireman Dan (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 77 · 96 · 93. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Kauai Dan at 5-2. Use #7 Attack in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 FIREMAN DAN (8-5) — our number agrees.
  • #3 FIREMAN DAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.9% to their 31.0%).
  • #8 KAUAI DAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.8% to their 23.0%).
  • #7 ATTACK — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.8% to their 14.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Wandalita; pressure from #10 We The Fringe, #1 Bobby Dazzler; the shape helps #1 Bobby Dazzler, #2 Crusher Royale, #3 Fireman Dan; and works against #9 Wandalita, #10 We The Fringe.

Lead
9Wandalita9110We The Fringe80
Press
1Bobby Dazzler967Attack962Crusher Royale84
Stalk
3Fireman Dan804Newhart775Pacheco746Flashfordani69
Close
8Kauai Dan85

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
Bobby Dazzler
96
7
Attack
96
9
Wandalita
91
2
Crusher Royale
84
3
Fireman Dan
80
10
We The Fringe
80
4
Newhart
77
5
Pacheco
74
6
Flashfordani
69

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

8
Kauai Dan
20
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