R7 CTD · Claiming $6,500

6:36 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $14,500 · 11 runners6:36 PM · 7½f Dirt · 11 runners

Upcoming $14K · Claiming $6,500

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Barberry BanditLSN. Prescod · P. JarvisPrescod · JarvisC49 63 75▼▼-23↕20-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -2349 63 75 ↕CLS

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–77 · Last 3 figs 49 63 75

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Pat Jarvis 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Crown Of Cairo 6-1, R6: Attack 9-2 · Trainer R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, this race: Somthing Elusive 3-1

    Figures have slipped: 75, 63, 49 over its last three. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Vied; bmpd; squeezedout. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CTD6½f DAlw s8th/8 -4¼L4916-1LVied;bmpd;squeezedout
    10/2CTD6f DClm 12k3rd/6 -7L6312-1LSaved;lacked kick
    9/4CML1 1/16 DOC 12k8th/8 -7½L7517-1LContended;faded
  2. 2Ameer▼K. Carter · S. BiggsCarter · BiggsC63 73 60▼▼-8@trip 6315-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -863 73 60@trip 63C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 73 60

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Kyle Carter 25% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Seymour Biggs 20% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Stay Up 8-1, R4: Texas Humor 9-2, R6: Pacheco 30-1, R8: Thompson 20-1 · Trainer R1: Porter's Princess 20-1, R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: Stay Up 8-1, R4: Texas Humor 9-2 +1 more
    CLASS DROP

    Tops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 78 for the next best. Finished 3rd in a 6-horse $6,250 claiming race at CTD, beaten 8 lengths.

    EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
    WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.20 on May 13 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CTD7½f DClm 5k3rd/6 -8L635.5-1b LGapped;late rally
    10/10CTD6½f DClm 8k6th/10 -6L7327-1b LSqzd st;2-3w;mild bid
    9/25CTD1 1/16 DAlw s4th/6 -10L602.0-1b LSvdgrnd;lacked bid
  3. 3Quinto SolL. Steadman · G. AndersonSteadman · AndersonC68 60 72►@trip 606-1Fair 8-110%► Steady68 60 72@trip 60C

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 60 72

    Jockey Linton Leon Steadman 22% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Gonzalo Anderson 33% career 6-for-54 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE3/4 board here

    Shortens up to 7½ furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Last start: 2nd in a 6-horse $6,500 claiming race at CTD.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    TROUBLED TRIP Steadied; rundown last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 106 days ago
    RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CTD1 1/16 DClm 6k b2nd/6687.3-1b LSteadied;rundown
    10/3CTD7½f DClm 6k b7th/9 -5L604.5-1b LBrushed;yielded
    9/19CTD1 1/16 DClm 6k b3rd/6 -2½L724.3-1b L4w;stalked;lacked kick
  4. 4St. Elmo▲A. Perez · M. CloutierPerez · CloutierA67 75 59►4-1Fair 7-222%► Steady67 75 59A▲ Rider upgrade (32% vs 27%) cutting back to a sprint1

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 67 75 59

    ▲ Rider upgrade (32% vs 27%) cutting back to a sprint
    Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 19-for-73 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Mark Cloutier 24% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 34
    Also today · Jockey R2: Just Scarlett 8-5, R3: Border Song 7-5, R5: All Run 8-1, R6: Flashfordani 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Border Song 7-5
    WON LAST

    Moves up from $4,000 claiming to $6,500 claiming. Winner of an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at CTD last time.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9CTD1 1/16 DClm 4k bWon/8 by hd671.9-1b LPrevailed under drive
    9/26CTD6f DClm 4k b3rd/9 -2½L7510-1b LWaited;5w;clsd gamely
    8/15EMD1m DClm 15k7th/7 -10L5927-1b L2-w; no factor
  5. 5Parking PermitJ. Asencio · D. WalperAsencio · WalperB69 68 69►≡@trip 695-1Fair 8-112%► Steady69 68 69 ≡@trip 69B

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–73 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 68 69

    Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Deanna Walper 22% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: El Bonita Cara 5-2, R3: Squalotoro 10-1, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1, R6: Kauai Dan 5-2 +2 more

    Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $6,500 claiming now. 2nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 6.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 36d ago)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CTD7½f DClm 5k2nd/6 -4L695.2-1b LNo match for winner
    10/3CTD7½f DClm 6k b4th/9 -7L6810-1b LBrushed;circled;clsd
    9/4CML6f DClm 8k5th/6 -5½L6913-1b LTrailed;late bid
  6. 6Kystone▼R. Balgobin · J. BrownBalgobin · BrownB75 75 70►≡20-1Fair 50-12%► Steady75 75 70 ≡B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 70–78 · Last 3 figs 75 75 70

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Ridge Balgobin 27% career 7-for-62 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Shashashakemeup 8-1, R5: Rapture Bay 10-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1, R9: Where's The Gold 15-1 · Trainer R3: Shashashakemeup 8-1, R5: Lemon Meringue 6-1, R8: Sparklet 3-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1
    LASIX 1ST

    New trainer: Roy Romanow had it last time, Jim R Brown now. 0 for 10 at today's distance.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Apr 30; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/12LBG7f DFarewell13k5th/8 -1L7518-1bTired
    10/4LBG7f DAlw nc2nd/5 -2L7510-1bWell handled
    9/12LBG7f DAlw nc5th/7 -2¼L7021-1bEvenly
  7. 7Jump the QueueB. Boodramsingh · T. RycroftBoodramsingh · RycroftA71 60 75►6-1Fair 7-113%► Steady71 60 75A3

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 71 60 75

    Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Tom Rycroft 36% career ★ 13-for-63 on dirt this meet (21%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Pump The Brakes 8-1, R4: B B Beth 3-1, R6: Fireman Dan 8-5, R8: Drinking Again 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: B B Beth 3-1, R8: Wico 8-1, R8: Drinking Again 2-1, R9: Man At The Pulpit 20-1
    5/6 board here

    Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start. Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 91d back)
    RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/24CTD6½f DClm 6k b2nd/11 -2½L719.8-1bRallied4w;clsd gamely
    10/9CTD6f DClm 6k b5th/9 -6¾L6010-1b5w;late mild bid
    9/26CTD6f DClm 4k bWon/9 by 1½755.6-1bBmpd;stlkd;3w;gotby
  8. 8ThiscatsgotspeedK. Trotman · R. HedgeTrotman · HedgeC64 66 80▼-7@trip 5815-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -764 66 80@trip 58C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 66 80

    Jockey Keimar Trotman 27% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Rick Hedge 25% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Where's The Pumps 10-1, R4: Caravalla 15-1, R6: Bobby Dazzler 10-1, R8: Hyperfocus 12-1 · Trainer R4: Caravalla 15-1, R9: Bodemonster 15-1
    5/6 board here

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 80. Trending the wrong way on speed, 80 to 66 to 64.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 1)
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 22d back
    RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 6 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17CTD1 1/16 DClm 6k b3rd/6 -3½L644.2-1bViedinside;yielded
    9/26CTD1 1/16 DClm 8k3rd/7 -5L6613-1b5w;bid;gaveway
    8/3CML1 1/16 DOC 12k5th/7 -5L8015-1b4w;5w1/4;tipd in
  9. 9Classy CityK. Balgobin · C. SmithBalgobin · SmithB72 71 62▲+315-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +372 71 62B

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 72 71 62

    Jockey Keishan Balgobin 27% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R9: Green Amazon 20-1 · Trainer R3: Sandini 12-1, R5: American Farmer 7-2, R6: Attack 9-2, R9: Green Amazon 20-1 +1 more
    CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

    A step up in company: $4,000 claiming before, $6,500 claiming today. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 79).

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 11; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/24CTD1 1/16 DClm 4k b3rd/6 by hd722.7-1b LContended;lost bob 2nd
    10/10CTD6½f DClm 8k8th/10 -8½L7110-1b LWidest uppr;not enough
    9/19CTD6f DOC 17k n3l4th/5 -7L6213-1b L4w;chased
  10. 10Somthing ElusiveK. Santo · P. JarvisSanto · JarvisA69 71 68▼-3≡3-1Fair 7-222%▼ Down -369 71 68 ≡A2

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 68–77 · Last 3 figs 69 71 68

    Jockey Kimal Santo 28% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Pat Jarvis 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Sandini 12-1, R4: Aintafraidtodream 12-1, R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, R6: Wandalita 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, this race: Barberry Bandit 20-1

    Turns back in 7 days. Dropped in well back early last out, 10th of 11 at the first call.

    EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
    TROUBLED TRIP Trailed; steadily; missd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/24CTD6½f DClm 6k b3rd/11 -2½L697.0-1b LTrailed;steadily;missd
    10/2CTD1 1/16 DClm 6k b4th/5 -1L715.5-1LSvd;rallied4w;bested
    9/20CTD6f DClm 4k bc5th/5 -2½L683.7-1LChsdinside;steadied
  11. 11BorderlandK. Natera · W. SmithNatera · SmithC47 70 60▼▼-17@trip 7020-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -1747 70 60@trip 70C

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 70 60

    Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer W Darcy Smith 32% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Devas Charm 2-1, R2: Light Fast Feet 9-2, R3: Sportscarr 15-1, R4: Betty Jo 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R3: Samurai Challenge 20-1, R8: Piccata Prince 30-1, R9: Wickedblackbullet 30-1, R9: Rattlesnake Jack 30-1
    LASIX 1ST

    Sheds 4 pounds from its last start. Worked 5F in 1:00.80 on Jan 29, 3rd of 19 at the distance.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 266d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11LBG7f DOpenDby15k6th/7 -3¾L472.6-1bOutrun
    10/4LBG-5½f DAlw b4th/7 -8½L—7.3-1bStumbled start
    9/8ASD7½f DClm 7k n2lWon/6701.9-1b LInsd; held off rival

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #8 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART7 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

CTD · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Claiming $6,500

Field
11 runners
Purse
$14,500
Post
6:36 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#4 · 22%

Claiming $6,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 88.9

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 St. Elmo (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 67 · 75 · 59. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #10 Somthing Elusive at 3-1. Use #7 Jump The Queue in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #10 SOMTHING ELUSIVE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #10 SOMTHING ELUSIVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.1% to their 20.3%).
  • #4 ST. ELMO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 16.2%).
  • #5 PARKING PERMIT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 13.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Thiscatsgotspeed; pressure from #1 Barberry Bandit; the shape helps #1 Barberry Bandit, #3 Quinto Sol, #4 St. Elmo; and works against #8 Thiscatsgotspeed.

Lead
8Thiscatsgotspeed83
Press
1Barberry Bandit88
Stalk
6Kystone917Jump The Queue843Quinto Sol809Classy City794St. Elmo77
Close
5Parking Permit8611Borderland762Ameer7510Somthing Elusive75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

6
Kystone
91
1
Barberry Bandit
88
7
Jump The Queue
84
8
Thiscatsgotspeed
83
3
Quinto Sol
80
9
Classy City
79
4
St. Elmo
77

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

10
Somthing Elusive
20
11
Borderland
20
2
Ameer
19
5
Parking Permit
19
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / ROLLING DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 7-9)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.