1Barberry BanditLSN. Prescod · P. JarvisPrescod · JarvisC49 63 75▼▼-23↕20-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -2349 63 75 ↕CLSCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–77 · Last 3 figs 49 63 75
LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey N'Rico Prescod 28% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Pat Jarvis 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)Also today · Jockey R2: Crown Of Cairo 6-1, R6: Attack 9-2 · Trainer R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, this race: Somthing Elusive 3-1Figures have slipped: 75, 63, 49 over its last three. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Vied; bmpd; squeezedout. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 CTD 6½f D Alw s 8th/8 -4¼L 49 16-1 L Vied;bmpd;squeezedout 10/2 CTD 6f D Clm 12k 3rd/6 -7L 63 12-1 L Saved;lacked kick 9/4 CML 1 1/16 D OC 12k 8th/8 -7½L 75 17-1 L Contended;faded 2Ameer▼K. Carter · S. BiggsCarter · BiggsC63 73 60▼▼-8@trip 6315-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -863 73 60@trip 63C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 73 60
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Kyle Carter 25% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Seymour Biggs 20% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)Also today · Jockey R2: Stay Up 8-1, R4: Texas Humor 9-2, R6: Pacheco 30-1, R8: Thompson 20-1 · Trainer R1: Porter's Princess 20-1, R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: Stay Up 8-1, R4: Texas Humor 9-2 +1 moreCLASS DROPTops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 78 for the next best. Finished 3rd in a 6-horse $6,250 claiming race at CTD, beaten 8 lengths.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.20 on May 13 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 CTD 7½f D Clm 5k 3rd/6 -8L 63 5.5-1 b L Gapped;late rally 10/10 CTD 6½f D Clm 8k 6th/10 -6L 73 27-1 b L Sqzd st;2-3w;mild bid 9/25 CTD 1 1/16 D Alw s 4th/6 -10L 60 2.0-1 b L Svdgrnd;lacked bid 3Quinto SolL. Steadman · G. AndersonSteadman · AndersonC68 60 72►@trip 606-1Fair 8-110%
► Steady68 60 72@trip 60CCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 60 72
Jockey Linton Leon Steadman 22% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Gonzalo Anderson 33% career 6-for-54 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE3/4 board hereShortens up to 7½ furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Last start: 2nd in a 6-horse $6,500 claiming race at CTD.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Steadied; rundown last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 106 days agoRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 CTD 1 1/16 D Clm 6k b 2nd/6 68 7.3-1 b L Steadied;rundown 10/3 CTD 7½f D Clm 6k b 7th/9 -5L 60 4.5-1 b L Brushed;yielded 9/19 CTD 1 1/16 D Clm 6k b 3rd/6 -2½L 72 4.3-1 b L 4w;stalked;lacked kick 4St. Elmo▲A. Perez · M. CloutierPerez · CloutierA67 75 59►4-1Fair 7-222%
► Steady67 75 59A▲ Rider upgrade (32% vs 27%) cutting back to a sprint1Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 67 75 59
▲ Rider upgrade (32% vs 27%) cutting back to a sprintJockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 19-for-73 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Mark Cloutier 24% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #3 of 34Also today · Jockey R2: Just Scarlett 8-5, R3: Border Song 7-5, R5: All Run 8-1, R6: Flashfordani 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Border Song 7-5WON LASTMoves up from $4,000 claiming to $6,500 claiming. Winner of an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at CTD last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 CTD 1 1/16 D Clm 4k b Won/8 by hd 67 1.9-1 b L Prevailed under drive 9/26 CTD 6f D Clm 4k b 3rd/9 -2½L 75 10-1 b L Waited;5w;clsd gamely 8/15 EMD 1m D Clm 15k 7th/7 -10L 59 27-1 b L 2-w; no factor 5Parking PermitJ. Asencio · D. WalperAsencio · WalperB69 68 69►≡@trip 695-1Fair 8-112%
► Steady69 68 69 ≡@trip 69BCard model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–73 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 68 69
Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Deanna Walper 22% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)Also today · Jockey R1: El Bonita Cara 5-2, R3: Squalotoro 10-1, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1, R6: Kauai Dan 5-2 +2 moreRaises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $6,500 claiming now. 2nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 6.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 36d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 CTD 7½f D Clm 5k 2nd/6 -4L 69 5.2-1 b L No match for winner 10/3 CTD 7½f D Clm 6k b 4th/9 -7L 68 10-1 b L Brushed;circled;clsd 9/4 CML 6f D Clm 8k 5th/6 -5½L 69 13-1 b L Trailed;late bid 6Kystone▼R. Balgobin · J. BrownBalgobin · BrownB75 75 70►≡20-1Fair 50-12%
► Steady75 75 70 ≡B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 70–78 · Last 3 figs 75 75 70
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Ridge Balgobin 27% career 7-for-62 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%)Also today · Jockey R3: Shashashakemeup 8-1, R5: Rapture Bay 10-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1, R9: Where's The Gold 15-1 · Trainer R3: Shashashakemeup 8-1, R5: Lemon Meringue 6-1, R8: Sparklet 3-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1LASIX 1STNew trainer: Roy Romanow had it last time, Jim R Brown now. 0 for 10 at today's distance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Apr 30; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 LBG 7f D Farewell13k 5th/8 -1L 75 18-1 b Tired 10/4 LBG 7f D Alw nc 2nd/5 -2L 75 10-1 b Well handled 9/12 LBG 7f D Alw nc 5th/7 -2¼L 70 21-1 b Evenly 7Jump the QueueB. Boodramsingh · T. RycroftBoodramsingh · RycroftA71 60 75►6-1Fair 7-113%
► Steady71 60 75A3Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 71 60 75
Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Tom Rycroft 36% career ★ 13-for-63 on dirt this meet (21%)Also today · Jockey R3: Pump The Brakes 8-1, R4: B B Beth 3-1, R6: Fireman Dan 8-5, R8: Drinking Again 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: B B Beth 3-1, R8: Wico 8-1, R8: Drinking Again 2-1, R9: Man At The Pulpit 20-15/6 board hereQuick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start. Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 91d back)RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/24 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 2nd/11 -2½L 71 9.8-1 b Rallied4w;clsd gamely 10/9 CTD 6f D Clm 6k b 5th/9 -6¾L 60 10-1 b 5w;late mild bid 9/26 CTD 6f D Clm 4k b Won/9 by 1½ 75 5.6-1 b Bmpd;stlkd;3w;gotby 8ThiscatsgotspeedK. Trotman · R. HedgeTrotman · HedgeC64 66 80▼-7@trip 5815-1Fair 20-14%
▼ Down -764 66 80@trip 58CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 66 80
Jockey Keimar Trotman 27% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Rick Hedge 25% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)Also today · Jockey R2: Where's The Pumps 10-1, R4: Caravalla 15-1, R6: Bobby Dazzler 10-1, R8: Hyperfocus 12-1 · Trainer R4: Caravalla 15-1, R9: Bodemonster 15-15/6 board hereOwns the highest recent figure here at 80. Trending the wrong way on speed, 80 to 66 to 64.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 1)WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 22d backRECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 6 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 CTD 1 1/16 D Clm 6k b 3rd/6 -3½L 64 4.2-1 b Viedinside;yielded 9/26 CTD 1 1/16 D Clm 8k 3rd/7 -5L 66 13-1 b 5w;bid;gaveway 8/3 CML 1 1/16 D OC 12k 5th/7 -5L 80 15-1 b 4w;5w1/4;tipd in 9Classy CityK. Balgobin · C. SmithBalgobin · SmithB72 71 62▲+315-1Fair 20-15%
▲ Up +372 71 62BCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 72 71 62
Jockey Keishan Balgobin 27% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%)Also today · Jockey R9: Green Amazon 20-1 · Trainer R3: Sandini 12-1, R5: American Farmer 7-2, R6: Attack 9-2, R9: Green Amazon 20-1 +1 moreCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKA step up in company: $4,000 claiming before, $6,500 claiming today. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 79).
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 11; 1 work in 30dRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/24 CTD 1 1/16 D Clm 4k b 3rd/6 by hd 72 2.7-1 b L Contended;lost bob 2nd 10/10 CTD 6½f D Clm 8k 8th/10 -8½L 71 10-1 b L Widest uppr;not enough 9/19 CTD 6f D OC 17k n3l 4th/5 -7L 62 13-1 b L 4w;chased 10Somthing ElusiveK. Santo · P. JarvisSanto · JarvisA69 71 68▼-3≡3-1Fair 7-222%
▼ Down -369 71 68 ≡A2Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 68–77 · Last 3 figs 69 71 68
Jockey Kimal Santo 28% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Pat Jarvis 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)Also today · Jockey R3: Sandini 12-1, R4: Aintafraidtodream 12-1, R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, R6: Wandalita 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, this race: Barberry Bandit 20-1Turns back in 7 days. Dropped in well back early last out, 10th of 11 at the first call.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Trailed; steadily; missd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 15d agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/24 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 3rd/11 -2½L 69 7.0-1 b L Trailed;steadily;missd 10/2 CTD 1 1/16 D Clm 6k b 4th/5 -1L 71 5.5-1 L Svd;rallied4w;bested 9/20 CTD 6f D Clm 4k bc 5th/5 -2½L 68 3.7-1 L Chsdinside;steadied 11BorderlandK. Natera · W. SmithNatera · SmithC47 70 60▼▼-17@trip 7020-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -1747 70 60@trip 70CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 70 60
Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer W Darcy Smith 32% careerAlso today · Jockey R1: Devas Charm 2-1, R2: Light Fast Feet 9-2, R3: Sportscarr 15-1, R4: Betty Jo 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R3: Samurai Challenge 20-1, R8: Piccata Prince 30-1, R9: Wickedblackbullet 30-1, R9: Rattlesnake Jack 30-1LASIX 1STSheds 4 pounds from its last start. Worked 5F in 1:00.80 on Jan 29, 3rd of 19 at the distance.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 266d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 LBG 7f D OpenDby15k 6th/7 -3¾L 47 2.6-1 b Outrun 10/4 LBG -5½f D Alw b 4th/7 -8½L — 7.3-1 b Stumbled start 9/8 ASD 7½f D Clm 7k n2l Won/6 70 1.9-1 b L Insd; held off rival
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #8 is the only true speed and could control it.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
CTD · RACE 7
UPCOMINGClaiming $6,500
Claiming $6,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 88.9
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #4 St. Elmo (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 67 · 75 · 59. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #10 Somthing Elusive at 3-1. Use #7 Jump The Queue in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 SOMTHING ELUSIVE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #10 SOMTHING ELUSIVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.1% to their 20.3%).
- #4 ST. ELMO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 16.2%).
- #5 PARKING PERMIT — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 13.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Thiscatsgotspeed; pressure from #1 Barberry Bandit; the shape helps #1 Barberry Bandit, #3 Quinto Sol, #4 St. Elmo; and works against #8 Thiscatsgotspeed.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / ROLLING DOUBLE / PICK 3 (RACES 7-9)
BET OPTIONS
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