R5 CTD · Claiming $8,000

1. 1FrostedbirdL. Steadman · G. AndersonSteadman · AndersonB66 78 61►↕5-1Fair 7-113%► Steady66 78 61 ↕B3

   Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–78 · Last 3 figs 66 78 61

   Jockey Linton Leon Steadman 22% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Gonzalo Anderson 33% career 6-for-54 on dirt this meet (11%)

   Also today · Jockey R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more

   4/6 board here

   Has won 3 of 7 going today's distance. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

   PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

   WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 31d ago

   RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/17	CTD	6½f D	Alw s	4th/8 -2½L	66	4.8-1	b L	Lostpath;wide;clsd lat
   10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 8k	2nd/10 -1½L	78	8.7-1	b L	2-3w;rally;outfinished
   9/19	CTD	6f D	OC 17k n3l	5th/5 -12L	61	9.0-1	b L	Outrun

2. 2American FarmerR. Balgobin · C. SmithBalgobin · SmithA47 86 76▼▼-32↕7-2Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -3247 86 76 ↕A2

   Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -32 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–86 · Last 3 figs 47 86 76

   Jockey Richard Balgobin 27% career 7-for-62 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%)

   Also today · Jockey R8: Good King Sam 20-1 · Trainer R3: Sandini 12-1, R6: Attack 9-2, R7: Classy City 15-1, R9: Green Amazon 20-1 +1 more

   CLASS UP

   Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 85 for the next best. Last out was 5th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse $12,500 claiming race at CTD.

   PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 2)

   TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Fan3w; chsd4-5w; tired. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

   WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 21d ago

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 12k	5th/5 -13L	47	5.3-1	b L	Fan3w;chsd4-5w;tired
   9/4	CML	1 1/16 D	OC 12k	2nd/8	86	4.3-1	b L	Promptedpace;nipped
   8/22	CML	1 1/16 D	OC 12k	2nd/10 by hd	76	8.0-1	b L	Fan3w;outfinished

3. 3All RunA. Perez · D. DaviesPerez · DaviesB71 73 81▼-68-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -671 73 81B

   Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 71 73 81

   Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 19-for-73 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Deanne Davies 23% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

   Also today · Jockey R2: Just Scarlett 8-5, R3: Border Song 7-5, R6: Flashfordani 12-1, R7: St. Elmo 4-1 +2 more

   2/4 board here

   Deanne Davies takes over the training from Dino Condilenios. Figures have slipped: 81, 73, 71 over its last three.

   PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

   WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 120d ago

   RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 8k c	7th/10 -3½L	71	2.7-1	b L	Chased 2w;steady late
   9/26	CTD	6f D	Alw s	3rd/9 -2½L	73	4.3-1	b L	Trailed; rallied late
   9/5	CML	7f D	Clm 6k bc	Won/8	81	1.1-1	b L	Stalked;opened up

4. 4TrapezeS. Morales · J. RobertsonMorales · RobertsonC72 73 71►≡@trip 6710-1Fair 15-17%► Steady72 73 71 ≡@trip 67C

   Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–77 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 73 71

   Jockey Silvino Morales 32% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Jerri R Robertson 33% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%)

   Also today · Jockey R2: Goldie Socks 20-1, R6: Newhart 15-1, R9: J Dutton 4-1 · Trainer R8: Good King Sam 20-1

   ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LAST3/6 board here

   Won last out in a 6-horse $6,500 claiming race at CTD. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 7½ furlongs.

   PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

   TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Steadied; won driving. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

   WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on May 20; 0 works in 30d

   RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/17	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	Won/6 by 1½	72	4.0-1	L	Steadied;won driving
   10/2	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	2nd/5 -1L	73	4.5-1	L	Stalked4-5w;clsd well
   9/19	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	4th/6 -4L	71	2.0-1	L	Saved inside;lackedbid

5. 5Lemon MeringueK. Natera · J. BrownNatera · BrownA77 56 85▲+5↕6-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +577 56 85 ↕A

   Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–85 · Last 3 figs 77 56 85

   Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Jim R Brown 37% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%)

   Also today · Jockey R1: Devas Charm 2-1, R2: Light Fast Feet 9-2, R3: Sportscarr 15-1, R4: Betty Jo 5-2 +3 more · Trainer R3: Shashashakemeup 8-1, R7: Kystone 20-1, R8: Sparklet 3-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1

   CLASS DROP

   Figure of 85 on the record sits above the 78 par. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, 7½ furlongs today.

   PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

   WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 71d back)

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/10	CTD	6½f D	Clm 8k	3rd/10 -3L	77	9.1-1	b L	Hop st;bid;outkicked
   9/19	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k	5th/7 -5½L	56	14-1	b L	Chased3w;gaveway
   8/29	CML	7f D	OC 8k c	Won/8 by 3	85	2.7-1	b L	Closed steadily;along

6. 6Rapture Bay▼R. Balgobin · A. GilkysonBalgobin · GilkysonC53 74 71▼▼-23↕10-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -2353 74 71 ↕C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

   Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -23 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–83 · Last 3 figs 53 74 71

   ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

   Jockey Ridge Balgobin 27% career 7-for-62 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Ashley Gilkyson 21% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

   Also today · Jockey R3: Shashashakemeup 8-1, R7: Kystone 20-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1, R9: Where's The Gold 15-1 · Trainer R9: Where's The Gold 15-1

   Drops from $12,500 claiming to $8,000 claiming. Turns back in 8 days.

   PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

   WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 21; 2 works in 30d

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/23	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k	6th/8 -8L	53	25-1	b L	Contested;gaveway
   9/25	CTD	1 1/16 D	Alw s	Won/6	74	2.2-1	b L	Set pace;opened up
   9/11	CML	6½f D	OC 12k	6th/7 -6½L	71	18-1	b L	Bmpd;faded gradually

7. 7Concrete Cowboy▲K. Santo · P. JarvisSanto · JarvisA67 74 74▼-43-1Fair 5-228%▼ Down -467 74 74A▲ Lone speed on early pace1

   Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 67 74 74

   ▲ Lone speed on early pace

   Jockey Kimal Santo 28% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Pat Jarvis 32% career 2-for-15 on dirt this meet (13%)

   Also today · Jockey R3: Sandini 12-1, R4: Aintafraidtodream 12-1, R6: Wandalita 20-1, R7: Somthing Elusive 3-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Barberry Bandit 20-1, R7: Somthing Elusive 3-1

   ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK4/5 board here

   Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 89). Fastest 5F work of its morning on Jun 11 (1:00.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

   PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

   TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Prsd4w; steadied; rundwn), and the figure already reflects it.

   WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 11 (5F in 1:00.00), 1 work in 30d

   RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/17	CTD	6½f D	Alw s	3rd/8 -1L	67	1.3-1	b L	Prsd4w;steadied;rundwn
   9/26	CTD	6f D	Alw s	2nd/9 -½L	74	3.3-1	b L	Stronghold;held 2nd
   9/4	CML	6f D	Clm 8k c	2nd/6	74	1.6-1	b L	6-7w;fan3w;worndown

8. 8Legal Assassin▼K. Chase · R. HeggieChase · HeggieC60 69 69▼▼-1320-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1360 69 69C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

   Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Last 3 figs 60 69 69

   ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

   Jockey Kemar Richard Chase 16% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Rod Heggie 22% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

   Also today · Jockey R3: Samurai Challenge 20-1, R9: Rattlesnake Jack 30-1 · Trainer R3: Sportscarr 15-1

   2/3 board here

   Worked 4F in :46.80 on Jul 17, 2nd of 22 at the distance. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 6½ furlongs last time.

   PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

   WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 12 (4F in :47.60), 1 work in 30d

   RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/17	CTD	6½f D	Alw s	7th/8 -2½L	60	8.2-1	b L	Brshd gate;chkd;chased
   9/11	CML	6½f D	OC 12k	7th/7 -8L	69	10-1	b L	Bmpd;offered little
   8/22	CML	6f D	OC 12k	8th/11 -8½L	69	4.4-1	b L	Chsdinside;passedtirng

9. 9Writ in StoneLSJ. Asencio · T. RycroftAsencio · RycroftC74 74 59▲+610-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +674 74 59CLS

   Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Last 3 figs 74 74 59

   LS

   Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

   Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Tim Rycroft 36% career ★ 13-for-63 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot

   Also today · Jockey R1: El Bonita Cara 5-2, R3: Squalotoro 10-1, R6: Kauai Dan 5-2, R7: Parking Permit 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Dreaming D'Oro 3-1, R3: Tool Time 5-2, R9: Fed Boy 12-1

   WON LAST5/6 board here

   Winner of a 5-horse $8,500 claiming race at CTD last time. Back to 7½ furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race.

   PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

   WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 64 days ago

   RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here

   Last three races

   Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
   10/2	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	Won/5	74	2.1-1	L	Stalked3w;held safely
   9/19	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	2nd/6 -½L	74	5.3-1	L	Stalked;neededmore
   9/5	CML	7f D	Clm 6k b	8th/8 -7¼L	59	20-1	L	Brokeout;wide;empty

10. 10Victoria's ChiefO. Foster · T. RobsonFoster · RobsonB76 84 77►@trip 6520-1Fair 50-12%► Steady76 84 77@trip 65B

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 84 77

    Jockey Orlando Foster 30% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Travis Robson 25% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

    Also today · Jockey R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: H K Mimi 20-1, R4: Everything To Gain 20-1, R6: We The Fringe 30-1 +1 more

    2/4 board here

    Winless in 4 starts at this distance. An 84 in its last five clears the 78 par for this level.

    EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 169 days ago

    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
    10/12	LBG	7f D	Farewell13k	4th/8 -5L	76	17-1		Late rally
    9/27	LBG	1 1/16 D	rBCup3UCls11k	Won/8	84	26-1		Driving
    9/12	LBG	-6f D	Alw b	Won/5 by hd	77	4.0-1		Passed tiring rivals;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.