R4 CTD · Claiming $4,000

5:08 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $12,000 · 9 runners5:08 PM · 7½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $12K · Claiming $4,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ah ToucheL. Steadman · G. AndersonSteadman · AndersonA66 68 59►≡7-2Fair 4-121%► Steady66 68 59 ≡A3

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 59–68 · Last 3 figs 66 68 59

Jockey Linton Leon Steadman 22% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Gonzalo Anderson 33% career 6-for-54 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1, R8: Vector 8-1 +2 more

5/7 board here

Was running in $8,000 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Beaten a head for 3rd in a 7-horse $8,000 claiming race at CTD.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 119d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/7 by hd	66	8.7-1	b L	Vied;3w;weakened
10/9	CTD	7f D	Clm 6k n2l	Won/9	68	3.0-1	b L	Drifted;bmpd;heldon
9/20	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k n2l	3rd/8 -2L	59	9.5-1	b L	Tracked;flattened out

2Smokin JoyC. Vidaurri · J. PetrowskiVidaurri · PetrowskiC56 69 59▼-7@trip 6930-1Fair 99-11%▼ Down -756 69 59@trip 69C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 69 59
Jockey Cesar Vidaurri 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Joan Petrowski 18% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Spadina 9-5
Class relief: $8,000 claiming last time, $4,000 claiming today. Finished 7th in a 7-horse $8,000 claiming race at CTD, beaten 10 lengths.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 0 works in 30d and the last 35d back
RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 7th/7 -10L 56 33-1 Offered little
10/2 CTD 7½f D Clm 6k b 3rd/6 -5½L 69 42-1 Gapped;dug in late
8/29 CML 1 1/16 D Clm 6k b 6th/8 -4¾L 59 34-1 4w;passed tiring
3Diamond DiR. Griffith · A. WardGriffith · WardC56 38 4▲▲+18↕20-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +1856 38 4 ↕C
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 4–71 · Last 3 figs 56 38 4
Jockey Rashaun Delane T Griffith 23% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anderson Ward 36% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)
Also today · Trainer this race: Betty Jo 5-2, R9: Rocktillyoudrop 30-1
Has moved up each time out, 4 to 38 to 56. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, 7½ furlongs today.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 98 days ago
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 6th/7 -6¼L 56 47-1 Vied;chased;gaveway
10/3 CTD 6f D Clm 4k b 6th/6 -14L 38 17-1 Viedbetween;outrun
9/19 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 8th/8 -28L 4 18-1 Offered little
4CaravallaLSK. Trotman · R. HedgeTrotman · HedgeC58 62 62▼-6≡@trip 6215-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -658 62 62 ≡@trip 62CLS
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 58–68 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 62 62
LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Keimar Trotman 27% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Rick Hedge 25% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Where's The Pumps 10-1, R6: Bobby Dazzler 10-1, R7: Thiscatsgotspeed 15-1, R8: Hyperfocus 12-1 · Trainer R7: Thiscatsgotspeed 15-1, R9: Bodemonster 15-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE0/4 board here
Gets a new rider, Keimar Trotman replacing Cesar Vidaurri. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 6½ furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmpd; steadied; empty), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days ago
RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 5th/7 -9¾L 58 25-1 L Bmpd;steadied;empty
10/2 CTD 7½f D Clm 6k b 5th/6 -10L 62 4.0-1 L 4w;lacked bid
9/19 CTD 6½f D Clm 6k b 5th/8 -9L 62 14-1 L Mild late bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	7th/7 -10L	56	33-1	Offered little
10/2	CTD	7½f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/6 -5½L	69	42-1	Gapped;dug in late
8/29	CML	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	6th/8 -4¾L	59	34-1	4w;passed tiring

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	6th/7 -6¼L	56	47-1	Vied;chased;gaveway
10/3	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	6th/6 -14L	38	17-1	Viedbetween;outrun
9/19	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	8th/8 -28L	4	18-1	Offered little

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	5th/7 -9¾L	58	25-1	L	Bmpd;steadied;empty
10/2	CTD	7½f D	Clm 6k b	5th/6 -10L	62	4.0-1	L	4w;lacked bid
9/19	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	5th/8 -9L	62	14-1	L	Mild late bid

5Betty JoK. Natera · A. WardNatera · WardA62 69 50►@trip 735-2Fair 3-126%► Steady62 69 50@trip 73A1

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 69 50

Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Anderson Ward 36% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Devas Charm 2-1, R2: Light Fast Feet 9-2, R3: Sportscarr 15-1, R5: Lemon Meringue 6-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Diamond Di 20-1, R9: Rocktillyoudrop 30-1

2/4 board here

Last out was 3rd, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse $4,000 claiming race at CTD. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 7½ furlongs.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 63d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	3rd/10 -2½L	62	7.3-1	b L	Settled;drove4w;imprve
9/26	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	5th/7 -1L	69	8.8-1	L	Stalked3-4wk;lackdkick
9/5	CML	6f D	Clm 4k b	8th/8 -5¼L	50	7.5-1	L	Stlkd4-5w;faded

6Everything to Gain▼O. Foster · C. RumseyFoster · RumseyB64 64 64►≡20-1Fair 30-13%► Steady64 64 64 ≡B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 72

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 61–64 · Last 3 figs 64 64 64

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 72

Jockey Orlando Foster 30% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cory Rumsey 15% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: H K Mimi 20-1, R5: Victoria's Chief 20-1, R6: We The Fringe 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Where's The Pumps 10-1, R9: Hangin' Tuff 20-1

Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start. Best recent figure of 65 sits right around the 72 par.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Trailed; 5w; surged late. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 119 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/24	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k n2l	5th/11 -4¼L	64	12-1	Trailed;5w;surged late
10/9	CTD	7f D	Clm 6k n2l	4th/9 -5½L	64	9.4-1	Trailed;circled;surged
9/26	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	7th/7 -6¼L	64	49-1	Trailed;no threat

7Texas HumorK. Carter · S. BiggsCarter · BiggsB58 72 70▼▼-109-2Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -1058 72 70B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 58 72 70

Jockey Kyle Carter 25% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Seymour Biggs 20% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Stay Up 8-1, R6: Pacheco 30-1, R7: Ameer 15-1, R8: Thompson 20-1 · Trainer R1: Porter's Princess 20-1, R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: Stay Up 8-1, R6: We The Fringe 30-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

The Sep 19 work, 4F in :47.60, was the best time at that distance that morning. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 19 (4F in :47.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	5th/10 -3L	58	10-1	L	Late bid
10/3	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	5th/6 -4½L	72	3.8-1	L	Settled;bid;flattened
9/26	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	4th/7 -1¼L	70	7.4-1	L	Trackdinside;laterally

8AintafraidtodreamK. Santo · D. SnowSanto · SnowB57 65 61▼▼-9@trip 7312-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -957 65 61@trip 73B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 65 61

Jockey Kimal Santo 28% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Daryl Snow 23% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Sandini 12-1, R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, R6: Wandalita 20-1, R7: Somthing Elusive 3-1 +2 more

Was 10th of 10 at the first call last time. Worked 5F in :59.80 on Jun 26, 2nd of 21 at the distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 16 (6F in 1:12.60), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	7th/10 -5L	57	15-1	b L	Trailed;mild bid
9/26	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	6th/7 -4¼L	65	1.8-1	L	Reserved;mild bid
8/29	CML	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	5th/8 -2L	61	2.0-1	b L	Fan3w;lacked close

9B B BethB. Boodramsingh · T. RycroftBoodramsingh · RycroftA58 74 40▲+3↕@trip 743-1Fair 7-223%▲ Up +358 74 40 ↕@trip 74A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 74 40

Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Tom Rycroft 36% career ★ 13-for-63 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Pump The Brakes 8-1, R6: Fireman Dan 8-5, R7: Jump The Queue 6-1, R8: Drinking Again 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Jump The Queue 6-1, R8: Wico 8-1, R8: Drinking Again 2-1, R9: Man At The Pulpit 20-1

CLASS DROP

Owns the highest recent figure here at 74. Jockey switch: Jose Mariano Asencio last out, Brian Boodramsingh today.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 168d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	6th/10 -4L	58	4.5-1	L	Chased3w;no threat
10/2	CTD	7½f D	Clm 6k b	Won/6	74	10-1	L	Fractions;unchallenged
9/19	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	7th/8 -13L	40	13-1	L	Stalked3w;tired early

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $4,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$12,000

Post

5:08 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 26%

Claiming $4,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 88.9

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Betty Jo (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 62 · 69 · 50. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 B B Beth at 3-1. Use #1 Ah Touche in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 BETTY JO (5-2) — our number agrees.
#5 BETTY JO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 23.7%).
#9 B B BETH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.3% to their 20.7%).
#1 AH TOUCHE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.7% to their 18.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Diamond Di; pressure from #9 B B Beth, #1 Ah Touche; the shape helps #1 Ah Touche, #2 Smokin Joy, #4 Caravalla; and works against #3 Diamond Di, #9 B B Beth.

Lead

3Diamond Di939B B Beth80

Press

1Ah Touche925Betty Jo854Caravalla788Aintafraidtodream77

Stalk

2Smokin Joy77

7Texas Humor796Everything To Gain74

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Diamond Di

Ah Touche

Betty Jo

B B Beth

Caravalla

Smokin Joy

Aintafraidtodream

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Everything To Gain

Texas Humor

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