R9 CTD · Claiming $4,000

7:30 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $12,000 · 14 runners7:30 PM · 7f Dirt · 14 runners

Upcoming $12K · Claiming $4,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Wickedblackbullet▼O. Foster · W. SmithFoster · SmithC67 46 61▲▲+11@trip 6730-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +1167 46 61@trip 67C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 46 61
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Orlando Foster 30% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer W Darcy Smith 32% career
Also today · Jockey R1: She's A Rowski 9-2, R2: H K Mimi 20-1, R4: Everything To Gain 20-1, R5: Victoria's Chief 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Samurai Challenge 20-1, R7: Borderland 20-1, R8: Piccata Prince 30-1, this race: Rattlesnake Jack 30-1
LASIX 1ST
Changes barns, from Kaylon Calfrobe to W Darcy Smith. A step up in company: $3,200 claiming before, $4,000 claiming today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 50 days ago
RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 LBG 7f D Clm 3k 2nd/6 67 14-1 b Just missed
10/3 LBG -6f D Clm 3k n1y 4th/5 -2¼L 46 2.6-1 b Came out start
9/20 LBG -6f D Clm 6k 6th/6 -6¼L 61 14-1 b No threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	LBG	7f D	Clm 3k	2nd/6	67	14-1	b	Just missed
10/3	LBG	-6f D	Clm 3k n1y	4th/5 -2¼L	46	2.6-1	b	Came out start
9/20	LBG	-6f D	Clm 6k	6th/6 -6¼L	61	14-1	b	No threat

2J DuttonS. Morales · D. CondileniosMorales · CondileniosA71 55 72▲+6@trip 774-1Fair 5-117%▲ Up +671 55 72@trip 77A1

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 55 72

Jockey Silvino Morales 32% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Dino Condilenios 26% career 2-for-22 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Goldie Socks 20-1, R5: Trapeze 10-1, R6: Newhart 15-1 · Trainer R8: Horatio 10-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST2/4 board here

Winner of a 10-horse $6,000 claiming race at CTD last time. Drops from $6,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 31 (4F in :49.80), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	Won/10 by 1½	71	5.3-1	L	Lackedroom;driving
9/19	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 12k	7th/7 -8½L	55	7.6-1	L	Saved ground;tired
9/4	CML	6f D	OC 17k n3l	8th/9 -5L	72	31-1	L	Stalked4-5w;faded

3Fed Boy▲LSJ. Asencio · T. RycroftAsencio · RycroftC65 75 67▼▼-8@trip 6712-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -865 75 67@trip 67C▲ Lone speed on early paceLS
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 67 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 75 67
▲ Lone speed on early paceLS
Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jose Mariano Asencio 36% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Tim Rycroft 36% career ★ 13-for-63 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: El Bonita Cara 5-2, R3: Squalotoro 10-1, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1, R6: Kauai Dan 5-2 +2 more · Trainer R2: Dreaming D'Oro 3-1, R3: Tool Time 5-2, R5: Writ In Stone 10-1
CLASS UP4/4 board here
Class relief: $8,500 claiming last time, $4,000 claiming today. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 71d ago
RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (2 wins)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 CTD 6f D Clm 6k b 3rd/9 -3½L 65 12-1 b L Closed gradually
9/26 CTD 6f D Clm 4k b 2nd/9 75 5.5-1 b L Lacked room;nipped
9/5 CML 7f D Clm 6k b 4th/10 by hd 67 4.0-1 b L Chased3w;bested
4Rattlesnake Jack▼K. Chase · W. SmithChase · SmithC54 61 52▼-3≡30-1Fair 99-1<1%▼ Down -354 61 52 ≡C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 52–61 · Last 3 figs 54 61 52
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Kemar Richard Chase 16% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer W Darcy Smith 32% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Samurai Challenge 20-1, R5: Legal Assassin 20-1 · Trainer R3: Samurai Challenge 20-1, R7: Borderland 20-1, R8: Piccata Prince 30-1, this race: Wickedblackbullet 30-1
★ FASTEST WORK
A 62 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par. Stretches out from -6 furlongs to 7 furlongs.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on May 11; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 LBG -6f D sClSk11900 4th/6 -8½L 54 6.8-1 Evenly
9/27 LBG -6f D Alw b 4th/6 -8L 61 14-1 b Mild bid
9/12 LBG -6f D Alw b 3rd/5 -7L 52 11-1 Game 3rd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/9 -3½L	65	12-1	b L	Closed gradually
9/26	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	2nd/9	75	5.5-1	b L	Lacked room;nipped
9/5	CML	7f D	Clm 6k b	4th/10 by hd	67	4.0-1	b L	Chased3w;bested

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	LBG	-6f D	sClSk11900	4th/6 -8½L	54	6.8-1		Evenly
9/27	LBG	-6f D	Alw b	4th/6 -8L	61	14-1	b	Mild bid
9/12	LBG	-6f D	Alw b	3rd/5 -7L	52	11-1		Game 3rd

5Where's the Gold▼R. Balgobin · A. GilkysonBalgobin · GilkysonC67 57 73►15-1Fair 20-15%► Steady67 57 73C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 67 57 73

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Ridge Balgobin 27% career 7-for-62 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Ashley Gilkyson 21% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Shashashakemeup 8-1, R5: Rapture Bay 10-1, R7: Kystone 20-1, R8: Quarterback Dak 20-1 · Trainer R5: Rapture Bay 10-1

2nd of 9 at 5F on Jul 24, in 1:01.40. Finished 2nd in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at CTD, beaten 3¼ lengths.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	2nd/9 -3¼L	67	17-1	L	Lagged;fin DH 2nd
10/9	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k b	7th/8 -6¼L	57	22-1	L	Shuffledback;no bid
9/26	CTD	6f D	Clm 4k b	5th/9 -2L	73	29-1	L	Steadied;lacked room

6Man at the Pulpit▼E. Gonzalez · T. RycroftGonzalez · RycroftC63 68 63▼-5@trip 6320-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -563 68 63@trip 63C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 68 63

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Enrique Alonzo Gonzalez 33% career ★ 8-for-37 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Tom Rycroft 36% career ★ 13-for-63 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Dreaming D'Oro 3-1, R3: Tool Time 5-2, R8: Wico 8-1 · Trainer R4: B B Beth 3-1, R7: Jump The Queue 6-1, R8: Wico 8-1, R8: Drinking Again 2-1

CLASS DROP2/3 board here

Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. 7th last time, 3¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Chsd4w; 6w; emptydrive. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 161d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	7th/9 -3¼L	63	15-1	L	Chsd4w;6w;emptydrive
10/2	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	3rd/8 -5L	68	26-1	L	5w;bid4w;passedtiring
9/11	CML	6f D	Clm 6k b	5th/6 -7L	63	6.9-1	L	Steadied;no threat

7EitherinorinthewayB. Boodramsingh · J. ConeyBoodramsingh · ConeyA68 72 65►≡@trip 746-1Fair 7-112%► Steady68 72 65 ≡@trip 74A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 65–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 72 65

Jockey Brian Boodramsingh 30% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jason Coney 29% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Pump The Brakes 8-1, R4: B B Beth 3-1, R6: Fireman Dan 8-5, R7: Jump The Queue 6-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Fireman Dan 8-5

★ FASTEST WORK5/6 board here

Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Jul 13, in :48.00. A 74 top number against a 77 par, so it fits the level.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP Closed5w late last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 13; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	3rd/10 -3¼L	68	10-1	b	Closed5w late
10/2	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	2nd/8 -6L	72	6.7-1	b	Inrange;closed gamely
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	5th/10 -6¾L	65	3.4-1	b	Outward;flattened out

8Zip It WritK. Natera · W. LeechNatera · LeechB68 63 73▲+6↕@trip 706-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +668 63 73 ↕@trip 70B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–73 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 63 73

Jockey Keihton Natera 29% career 5-for-37 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer William H Leech 30% career ★ 9-for-15 on dirt this meet (60%), #1 of 34

Also today · Jockey R1: Devas Charm 2-1, R2: Light Fast Feet 9-2, R3: Sportscarr 15-1, R4: Betty Jo 5-2 +3 more

5/8 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 79, with 77 next best. A big drop, $8,000 claiming to $4,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3w; 5w; mild rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 63 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 8 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	CTD	6½f D	Clm 6k b	4th/10 -1¾L	68	3.3-1	L	3w;5w;mild rally
10/9	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	4th/9 -6¾L	63	3.5-1	L	Trailed;wide;clsd late
9/25	CTD	6f D	Clm 6k b	Won/10 by hd	73	6.9-1	L	Contested4w;prevailed

9Snap Count▼L. Steadman · G. AndersonSteadman · AndersonB72 66 60▲+65-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +6 · career best72 66 60B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 72 66 60

▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Linton Leon Steadman 22% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Gonzalo Anderson 33% career 6-for-54 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1 +2 more

4/4 board here

Has moved up each time out, 60 to 66 to 72. Quick turnaround, just 7 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 0 works in 30d and the last 37d back

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (0 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k b	2nd/6 by nk	72	5.4-1	L	Prssed;dueled;wonbob
10/9	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k b	2nd/8	66	16-1	L	Alertly;outfinished
9/5	CML	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k b	7th/7 -8½L	60	6.9-1	L	Tracked5w;tired

10Hangin' TuffA. Perez · C. RumseyPerez · RumseyC64 60 55►↕@trip 7720-1Fair 30-13%► Steady64 60 55 ↕@trip 77C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 55–77 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 60 55

Jockey Amadeo Perez 32% career ★ 19-for-73 on dirt this meet (26%), #2 of 18 · Trainer Cory Rumsey 15% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Just Scarlett 8-5, R3: Border Song 7-5, R5: All Run 8-1, R6: Flashfordani 12-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Where's The Pumps 10-1, R4: Everything To Gain 20-1

0/3 board here

Figures are climbing: 55, 60, 64 over its last three. Was 9th of 9 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 71 days ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	6th/9 -5¼L	64	9.9-1	b L	Trailed;mild interest
10/9	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k b	5th/8 -4¾L	60	9.6-1	b L	Unhurried;passedtiring
9/25	CTD	1 1/16 D	Alw s	5th/6 -12L	55	5.8-1	b L	3w;chsd5w;tired

11Green AmazonK. Balgobin · C. SmithBalgobin · SmithC7 67 63▼▼-59↕20-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -597 67 63 ↕C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -59 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 7–67 · Last 3 figs 7 67 63

Jockey Keishan Balgobin 27% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Classy City 15-1 · Trainer R3: Sandini 12-1, R5: American Farmer 7-2, R6: Attack 9-2, R7: Classy City 15-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. Last out was 9th, 16 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $6,500 claiming race at CTD.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (4F in :47.00), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	CTD	7½f D	Clm 6k b	9th/9 -16L	7	24-1	b	Badstep;PU;eased;WO
9/15	ASD	6f D	Clm 5k n4l	4th/8 -4½L	67	8.0-1	b	Off rail; adv 4-wd;rly
8/25	ASD	7½f D	Clm 7k	5th/6 -7½L	63	27-1	b	Stlkd 5-wd; faded

12Call the CavalryK. Santo · C. SmithSanto · SmithA67 77 70▼-73-1Fair 5-116%▼ Down -767 77 70A2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 67 77 70

Jockey Kimal Santo 28% career 7-for-56 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Craig Robert Smith 32% career 6-for-58 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Sandini 12-1, R4: Aintafraidtodream 12-1, R5: Concrete Cowboy 3-1, R6: Wandalita 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Sandini 12-1, R5: American Farmer 7-2, R6: Attack 9-2, R7: Classy City 15-1 +1 more

Worked 4F in :50.40 on Sep 2, 2nd of 13 at the distance. Beaten 3 lengths for 3rd in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at CTD.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

TROUBLED TRIP 3w; swung5w; DH2nd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 59d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	CTD	6½f D	Clm 4k b	3rd/9 -3L	67	2.4-1	L	3w;swung5w;DH2nd
10/7	ASD	6f D	Clm 6k n4l	3rd/7 -3½L	77	2.8-1	L	Stlkd wide; show rally
9/22	ASD	6f D	Clm 10k	6th/7 -11L	70	9.4-1	L	Showed little

13RocktillyoudropL. Steadman · A. WardSteadman · WardC56 59 66►@trip 7630-1Fair 99-1<1%► Steady56 59 66@trip 76C

Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 59 66

Jockey Linton Leon Steadman 22% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Anderson Ward 36% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Ah Touche 7-2, R5: Frostedbird 5-1, R6: Crusher Royale 20-1, R7: Quinto Sol 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Diamond Di 20-1, R4: Betty Jo 5-2

3/6 board here

Shortens up to 7 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Turns back in 7 days.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Fanned4w; tired early. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 54d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k b	6th/6 -5¾L	56	30-1	L	Fanned4w;tired early
10/9	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k b	6th/8 -2½L	59	15-1	L	Led;wilted
9/19	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	5th/6 -4L	66	12-1	b L	Trailed;offered little

14Bodemonster▼S. Muir · R. HedgeMuir · HedgeB66 71 76►@trip 7615-1Fair 50-12%► Steady66 71 76@trip 76B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 71 76

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Shamaree Muir 25% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rick Hedge 25% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%)

Also today · Trainer R4: Caravalla 15-1, R7: Thiscatsgotspeed 15-1

CLASS DROP3/5 board here

Turns back in 7 days. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Chased5w; no threat. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 38d ago)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 4k b	5th/6 -3¾L	66	3.2-1	b L	Chased5w;no threat
10/2	CTD	1 1/16 D	Clm 6k b	3rd/5 -2L	71	11-1	b L	Trailed;6w;passedfoe
8/29	CML	7f D	OC 8k	6th/8 -10L	76	24-1	b L	Driftdwide;clsdoutside

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CTD · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Claiming $4,000

Field

14 runners

Purse

$12,000

Post

7:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 17%

Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 81.89

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 J Dutton (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 71 · 55 · 72. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #12 Call The Cavalry at 3-1. Use #8 Zip It Writ in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #12 CALL THE CAVALRY (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#12 CALL THE CAVALRY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 18.6%).
#2 J DUTTON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 14.9%).
#9 SNAP COUNT — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.0% to their 12.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 FED BOY (12-1) — our fair 6.7% is above the morning line's 5.7%; supported by: top barn (36%) + jockey (36%) at 12-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Snap Count; pressure from #1 Wickedblackbullet, #3 Fed Boy; the shape helps #1 Wickedblackbullet, #2 J Dutton, #3 Fed Boy; and works against #9 Snap Count.

Lead

9Snap Count79

Press

1Wickedblackbullet853Fed Boy8413Rocktillyoudrop74

Stalk

6Man At The Pulpit892J Dutton868Zip It Writ86

12Call The Cavalry9111Green Amazon815Where's The Gold797Eitherinorintheway7910Hangin' Tuff744Rattlesnake Jack7314Bodemonster69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Man At The Pulpit

J Dutton

Zip It Writ

Wickedblackbullet

Fed Boy

Snap Count

Rocktillyoudrop

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Green Amazon

Where's The Gold

Hangin' Tuff

Call The Cavalry

Rattlesnake Jack

Bodemonster

Eitherinorintheway

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