DELTA DOWNS · RACE 6
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won four races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 91.22
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #2 Moenchanted (early speed, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 56 · 77 · 53. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #3 Very Cosmopolitan at 5-2. Use #1 Thats Unbelievable in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 77, with 76 next best.
Was running in $10,000 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Has moved up each time out, 55 to 67 to 76.
Last start was a win, in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at DED at 8.1-1. Drops from $7,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 75 par.
Winner of a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at SWF last time. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 5½ furlongs last time.
A big drop, $20,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Switches from turf to dirt.
Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 7½ furlongs. Won last out in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at EVD.
0 for 7 at today's distance. A 63 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 VERY COSMOPOLITAN (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 VERY COSMOPOLITAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 22.8%).
- #8 NOW HEAR THIS — our #5 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 16.0%).
- #5 AGE OF REASON — our #7 number, about right at the windows (15.6% to their 17.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Moenchanted; pressure from #5 Age Of Reason, #7 Nicely Unified; the shape helps #1 Thats Unbelievable; and works against #2 Moenchanted, #5 Age Of Reason, #7 Nicely Unified.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 6-7)
($1 MIN.)/PICK 3(RACES 6-8)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta