DELTA DOWNS · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Allowance · $36,000 purse

Field

10 runners

Purse

$36,000

Post

8:28 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#1 · 15%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 96.89

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Weekendsandwhiskey (a closer, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 78 · 72 · 80. Backup is #10 Miracle Mula at 7-2. Use #8 Bigwrigdude in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

1Weekendsandwhiskey

Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-42 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jayde J Gelner 30% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: King Jules 12-1, R2: Baron Of The Nile 7-2, R4: Z's Guitar 12-1, R8: Running Production 15-1 · Trainer R3: Apollo's Fury 7-2

60D LAYOFF2/3 board here

Changes barns, from Scott Gelner to Jayde J Gelner. Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 12d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 1 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 68 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last4th · 81d

22ND

10Miracle Mula

Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 11-for-47 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 27 · Trainer Joel Berndt 35% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Hold My Hat 10-1, R1: Imperial Cruiser 6-1, R2: Donegal Freedom 2-1, R5: Betsy Louise 5-2 +1 more

Goes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 92).

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 95 days ago

RECORD T G Thornton from post 10 here: 9 wins, 16 top-3 in 43 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 18d

33RD

8Bigwrigdude

Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 8-for-47 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Jonas Gibson 36% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Ripple's Rocket 5-1, R2: Julia's Warrior 5-1, R3: Apollo's Fury 7-2, R4: Clearly Colossal 9-2 +1 more · Trainer R4: Clearly Colossal 9-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Jockey switch: Kevin Roman last out, Harry Hernandez today.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (5F in 1:01.20), 2 works in 30d

M/L5-2

Model19%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 30d

44TH

2Gorilla Trek

Jockey Devin H Magnon 24% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 27 · Trainer Rylee Magnon 24% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Boss Kid 8-1

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Has moved up each time out, 71 to 78 to 82.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Swung wide; closed), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 11d ago)

RECORD Devin H Magnon from post 2 here: 3 wins, 15 top-3 in 43 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

M/L9-2

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 54d

55TH

3I'm Your Man

Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-46 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Cesar Govea 24% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Trainer R5: Double Gem 20-1, this race: Traitour 15-1, R8: Awesome William 20-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance now. Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 82 for the next best.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

M/L20-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last8th · 74d

6Footprint

Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-42 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Cardel Cormier 19% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Shot Gun Shack 15-1, R3: Buster Scruggs 12-1, R4: Woods N Water 7-2, R5: Kara Flash 8-1 +1 more

CLASS DROP

New trainer: Juan Munoz Cano had it last time, Cardel Cormier now. Beaten 2 lengths for 2nd in a 9-horse optional claiming race at DED.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 19d back)

RECORD Carlos Perez from post 6 here: 5 wins, 29 top-3 in 66 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 11d

9Hegs

Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Benjamino 6-1, R4: Tappin Fora Dance 6-1, R5: Alyse Parker 10-1, R6: Talksalot 20-1 · Trainer R1: Benjamino 6-1, R5: Betsy Louise 5-2

60D LAYOFF

Raises its level, $12,500 claiming last time and allowance now. Best recent figure of 80 sits right around the 81 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD T L Pompell from post 9 here: 7 wins, 19 top-3 in 57 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 61d

5Charbon

Jockey Juan P Vargas 29% career 6-for-39 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Chasey Deville Pomier 25% career 2-for-14 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Louisiana Native 12-1

CLASS DROP4/5 board here

Last out was 2nd, a head behind the winner, in a 10-horse $5,000 claiming race at DED. A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, allowance today.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 27d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Juan P Vargas from post 5 here: 21 wins, 43 top-3 in 102 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 19d

4Traitour

Jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez 38% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Cesar Govea 24% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: The Big Ben 20-1, R5: Double Gem 20-1, R8: Ocean Voyager 5-1 · Trainer R5: Double Gem 20-1, this race: I'm Your Man 20-1, R8: Awesome William 20-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Moves up from $5,000 claiming to allowance. Cesar Govea takes over the training from George Iii Leonard.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 78 days ago

RECORD Javier Antonio Hernandez from post 4 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 22 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 19d

7Flamingproposition

Jockey Emanuel Nieves 32% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Antonio Alberto 24% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Country Boy 8-1, R2: Critical Threat 6-1, R3: Mr. Mo 9-2

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 120 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to a mile.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 17; 2 works in 30d

M/L12-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 120d

At a glance

Market favourite #8 BIGWRIGDUDE (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
#8 BIGWRIGDUDE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 22.3%).
#10 MIRACLE MULA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 17.4%).
#2 GORILLA TREK — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.8% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 I'M YOUR MAN (20-1) — our fair 4.4% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #10 Miracle Mula; pressure from #7 Flamingproposition, #9 Hegs; the shape helps #2 Gorilla Trek, #4 Traitour, #5 Charbon; and works against #10 Miracle Mula.

Lead

10Miracle Mula92

Press

7Flamingproposition939Hegs794Traitour788Bigwrigdude782Gorilla Trek76

Stalk

5Charbon816Footprint76

3I'm Your Man701Weekendsandwhiskey66

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Flamingproposition

Miracle Mula

Charbon

Hegs

Traitour

Bigwrigdude

Gorilla Trek

Footprint

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Weekendsandwhiskey

I'm Your Man

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 7-8)/($1 MIN.)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.