DELTA DOWNS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $4,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$12,000

Post

6:08 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#5 · 15%

Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Julia's Warrior (a closer, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 65 · 81 · 76. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #6 Critical Threat at 6-1. Use #3 Donegal Freedom in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

5Julia's Warrior

Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 8-for-47 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Juan A Larrosa 34% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Ripple's Rocket 5-1, R3: Apollo's Fury 7-2, R4: Clearly Colossal 9-2, R7: Bigwrigdude 5-2 +1 more · Trainer R5: Kara Flash 8-1, R6: Age Of Reason 7-2

0/3 board here

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 6½ furlongs.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

M/L5-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last8th · 54d

22ND

6Critical Threat

Jockey Emanuel Nieves 32% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Ruperto R Urbina 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Big Country Boy 8-1, R3: Mr. Mo 9-2, R7: Flamingproposition 12-1

Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 84 for the next best. Was running in optional claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 313 days ago

M/L6-1

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last8th · 14d

33RD

3Donegal Freedom

Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 11-for-47 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 27 · Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez 36% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Hold My Hat 10-1, R1: Imperial Cruiser 6-1, R5: Betsy Louise 5-2, R7: Miracle Mula 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R8: Marks Legacy 9-5

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here

Figures have slipped: 83, 76, 74 over its last three. 4th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 32d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD T G Thornton from post 3 here: 23 wins, 47 top-3 in 105 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

Model22%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last4th · 14d

44TH

10Warren L

Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Bonnie Birzer 30% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Purse Thief 2-1, R6: Very Cosmopolitan 5-2 · Trainer R6: Very Cosmopolitan 5-2

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

New trainer: Logan Ashford had it last time, Bonnie Birzer now. Has moved up each time out, 59 to 65 to 75.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 20; 2 works in 30d

RECORD A E Birzer from post 10 here: 3 wins, 12 top-3 in 29 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last1st · 46d

55TH

4San Juan Hill

Jockey Carlos Lozada 28% career 1-for-20 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Edith A Mojica 27% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: That's Apriority 4-1, R5: Jazzy Gal 6-1 · Trainer R5: Alyse Parker 10-1

60D LAYOFF3/3 board here

109 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Beaten 2½ lengths for 3rd in an 8-horse allowance race at EVD.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 32d back)

RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)

RECORD Carlos Lozada from post 4 here: 8 wins, 18 top-3 in 56 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 109d

2Baron Of The Nile

Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-42 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Juan Munoz Cano 31% career 1-for-20 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: King Jules 12-1, R4: Z's Guitar 12-1, R7: Weekendsandwhiskey 6-1, R8: Running Production 15-1 · Trainer R1: King Jules 12-1, R4: Woods N Water 7-2, R4: All West 15-1

60D LAYOFF2/3 board here

2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Drops from $7,500 claiming to $4,000 claiming.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 15d back

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 2 here: 10 wins, 39 top-3 in 93 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L7-2

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 68d

9Threefiftyseven

Jockey A B Ramos 34% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Isai V Gonzalez 31% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Now Hear This 4-1 · Trainer this race: Unfathomed 15-1, R4: Butler Cabin 2-1, R4: Midnight Rules 8-1

CLASS DROPWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $2,500 claiming race at ATO at 3.7-1. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)

SHARP LAST OUT Inside; drew off last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 14d back

M/L10-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last1st · 51d

8Unfathomed

Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-40 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Isai V Gonzalez 31% career ★ 7-for-31 on dirt this meet (23%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Rocky Rock It 20-1, R4: Midnight Rules 8-1 · Trainer this race: Threefiftyseven 10-1, R4: Butler Cabin 2-1, R4: Midnight Rules 8-1

CLASS DROP

Best recent figure is 68, well under the 80 par for this level. Raises its level, $2,500 claiming last time and $4,000 claiming now.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD Kevin Roman from post 8 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 53 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 51d

1Supreme Capo

Jockey Paulina Ramirez 33% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jonathon Boxie 14% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Petty Officer 15-1

Class relief: allowance last time, $4,000 claiming today. Goes 6½ furlongs after running 4 furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 32d ago

RECORD Paulina Ramirez from post 1 here: 5 wins, 17 top-3 in 45 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last6th · 59d

7Hawija

Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 0-for-23 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Eduardo Ramirez 32% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Moenchanted 6-1, R8: Quikonthetrigger 8-1

CLASS DROPJky 0/50 from post 7

A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today. 3rd of 41 at 4F on Oct 8, in :49.40.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 20d ago)

RECORD Alexander Castillo has never won from post 7 here (10 top-3 in 50 rides) · 5% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last6th · 12d

At a glance

Market favourite #3 DONEGAL FREEDOM (2-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#3 DONEGAL FREEDOM — our #3 number, about right at the windows (24.7% to their 26.0%).
#2 BARON OF THE NILE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (16.1% to their 17.3%).
#5 JULIA'S WARRIOR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (14.1% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Threefiftyseven; pressure from #3 Donegal Freedom, #2 Baron Of The Nile; the shape helps #1 Supreme Capo, #2 Baron Of The Nile, #3 Donegal Freedom; and works against #9 Threefiftyseven.

Lead

9Threefiftyseven90

Press

3Donegal Freedom892Baron Of The Nile857Hawija838Unfathomed821Supreme Capo77

Stalk

6Critical Threat76

5Julia's Warrior8210Warren L824San Juan Hill68

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Threefiftyseven

Donegal Freedom

Baron Of The Nile

Hawija

Unfathomed

Supreme Capo

Critical Threat

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

San Juan Hill

Warren L

Julia's Warrior

Bet types

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