DELTA DOWNS · RACE 3
UPCOMINGState-Bred Maiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 56.69
The shape is the story here: 8 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #9 Forty Three Cents (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 80 · 69 · 65. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Boss Kid at 8-1. Use #12 Wildly Wicked in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Returns from a 494-day break, the biggest in the field. Gets a new rider, C Fusilier replacing Devin H Magnon.
Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 16 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Still looking for the first win after 8 starts.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 82, with 80 next best. A 82-day gap since its last race.
A step up in company: maiden claiming $20,000 before, maiden special weight today. The Sep 19 work, 3F in :37.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Bobby's Wicked One out of Rosalba Maria. Debut for a trainer who is 23% with first-timers, over 87 starts.
Back to 5 furlongs off a 7 furlongs race. A 61 is the high figure lately, short of the 76 par.
Figures are climbing: 51, 60, 66 over its last three. Best recent figure is 66, well under the 76 par for this level.
Finished 3rd in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at DED, beaten 4 lengths. 3rd of 11 at 4F on Sep 26, in :48.20.
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 17). First career start, by Classic Empire out of The Goddess Lyssa.
Raises its level, maiden claiming $20,000 last time and maiden special weight now. Last out was 6th, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at EVD.
Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 5 furlongs. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 48 against a 76 par.
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 FORTY THREE CENTS (9-5) — our number agrees.
- #9 FORTY THREE CENTS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 24.3%).
- #5 APOLLO'S FURY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 15.1%).
- #6 MR. MO — our #9 number, about right at the windows (11.3% to their 12.4%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #10 BOSS KID (8-1) — our fair 9.0% is above the morning line's 7.6%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #9 Forty Three Cents; pressure from #1 Petty Officer, #8 Ready To Ride; and works against #1 Petty Officer, #2 Shred It Up, #4 The Duke Of Delhi.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 3-4)
($1 MIN.)/PICK 3(RACES 3-5)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta