DELTA DOWNS · RACE 5
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 56.69
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #3 Jazzy Gal (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 61 · 70 · 70. Backup is #1 Exploding Circle at 9-2. Use #4 Alyse Parker in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Drops from $7,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming. A 70 top number against a 72 par, so it fits the level.
Freshened 109 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Was running in $12,500 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 74 to 63 to 50. Back to 5 furlongs off a 6 furlongs race.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. A big drop, $12,500 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why.
New trainer: Sam B Jr David had it last time, Brett Brinkman now. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 79, with 75 next best.
Last out was 5th, 3½ lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at LAD. Cuts back from 6 furlongs to 5 furlongs.
Cesar Govea takes over the training from Pedro Rodriguez-Torres. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at EVD. Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going 7 furlongs.
0 for 5 at today's distance. Worked 4F in :50.00 on Oct 20, 2nd of 29 at the distance.
A 61 is the high figure lately, short of the 72 par. Finished 4th in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at LAD, beaten 2½ lengths.
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 BETSY LOUISE (5-2) — our number has it ranked #5.
- #10 BETSY LOUISE — our #5 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.3%).
- #1 EXPLODING CIRCLE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.2% to their 14.2%).
- #9 WHAT A HANGOVER — our #9 number, about right at the windows (14.9% to their 17.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Double Gem; pressure from #3 Jazzy Gal, #9 What A Hangover; the shape helps #1 Exploding Circle, #2 Long Shot Louise, #3 Jazzy Gal; and works against #8 Double Gem.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 5-6)
($1 MIN.)/PICK 3(RACES 5-7)/PICK 4(RACES 5-8)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta