DELTA DOWNS · RACE 8
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #3 Native Requite (a closer, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 56 · 61 · 57. Backup is #7 Ahooga at 4-1. Use #11 Mo'z Star Sailor in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Back to 6½ furlongs off a a mile race. 0 for 7 at today's distance.
Class relief: $7,500 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. Worked 4F in :48.00 on Sep 16, 3rd of 6 at the distance.
Switches from turf to dirt. Beaten 6¾ lengths for 10th in a 12-horse $10,000 claiming race at LAD.
Winless in 7 starts at this distance. Best recent figure is 53, well under the 75 par for this level.
Freshened 333 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Changes barns, from Samuel Breaux to Ronnie Averett.
Figures have slipped: 71, 68, 61 over its last three. Back after 250 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.
Last start was a win, in a 5-horse maiden claiming $5,000 race at LAD at 2-1. Eric Ramaekers takes over the training from Matt Lorefice.
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 75 par. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 94).
A big drop, $25,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
New trainer: Carrol Castille had it last time, Vincent A Chevis now. Drops from $10,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming.
Goes 6½ furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time. 3rd last time, ¾ length back, in a field of 6.
Returns from a 117-day break. A 57 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 MARKS LEGACY (9-5) — our number has it ranked #6.
- #9 MARKS LEGACY — our #6 number, about right at the windows (24.3% to their 25.3%).
- #7 AHOOGA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 14.1%).
- #2 OCEAN VOYAGER — our #8 number, about right at the windows (11.2% to their 11.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #11 MO'Z STAR SAILOR (20-1) — our fair 4.2% is above the morning line's 3.4%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Ocean Voyager; pressure from #10 No Deal Or Deal, #6 Bourbon Or Wine; the shape helps #3 Native Requite; and works against #2 Ocean Voyager, #6 Bourbon Or Wine, #9 Marks Legacy.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta