DELTA DOWNS · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field

11 runners

Purse

$18,000

Post

5:40 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#7 · 24%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 56.69

The shape is the story here: 8 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #7 Purse Thief (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 75 · 77 · 62. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Ripple's Rocket at 5-1. Use #11 Imperial Cruiser in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

7Purse Thief

Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Tanner Tracy 36% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Warren L 12-1, R6: Very Cosmopolitan 5-2

Owns the highest recent figure here at 83. Class relief: $20,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 19d back

RECORD A E Birzer from post 7 here: 2 wins, 26 top-3 in 69 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

M/L2-1

Model24%

Fav?Yes

StyleE

Last2nd · 54d

22ND

10Ripple's Rocket

Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 8-for-47 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Sarah Martinez 32% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Julia's Warrior 5-1, R3: Apollo's Fury 7-2, R4: Clearly Colossal 9-2, R7: Bigwrigdude 5-2 +1 more · Trainer R3: Petty Officer 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 5 furlongs. A big drop, $20,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 1; 1 work in 30d

M/L5-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last9th · 18d

33RD

11Imperial Cruiser

Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 11-for-47 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 27 · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career ★ 3-for-15 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey this race: Hold My Hat 10-1, R2: Donegal Freedom 2-1, R5: Betsy Louise 5-2, R7: Miracle Mula 7-2 +1 more

8th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 10. Drops from allowance to $10,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 29d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD T G Thornton from post 11 here: 2 wins, 4 top-3 in 34 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last8th · 14d

44TH

2Hold My Hat

Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 11-for-47 on dirt this meet (23%), #1 of 27 · Trainer Carrol Castille 21% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey this race: Imperial Cruiser 6-1, R2: Donegal Freedom 2-1, R5: Betsy Louise 5-2, R7: Miracle Mula 7-2 +1 more

60D LAYOFF

Was running in $15,000 claiming; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Nov 14 (4F in :47.40), 1 work in 30d

RECORD T G Thornton from post 2 here: 22 wins, 43 top-3 in 101 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

M/L10-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last6th · 75d

55TH

5Benjamino

Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 4-for-24 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Tappin Fora Dance 6-1, R5: Alyse Parker 10-1, R6: Talksalot 20-1, R7: Hegs 10-1 · Trainer R5: Betsy Louise 5-2, R7: Hegs 10-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Drops from $12,500 claiming to $10,000 claiming.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 5; 1 work in 30d

RECORD T L Pompell from post 5 here: 9 wins, 45 top-3 in 91 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L6-1

Model9%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last5th · 75d

8Big Country Boy

Jockey Emanuel Nieves 32% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Tim Dixon 28% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Critical Threat 6-1, R3: Mr. Mo 9-2, R7: Flamingproposition 12-1

CLASS DROP

Has moved up each time out, 54 to 56 to 60. Winless in 7 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 263d back)

M/L8-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 37d

1The Big Ben

Jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez 38% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jerry Eugene Jr Tillis 19% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Double Gem 20-1, R7: Traitour 15-1, R8: Ocean Voyager 5-1

Switches from turf to dirt. Best recent figure is 69, well under the 78 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 50 days ago

RECORD Javier Antonio Hernandez from post 1 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 24 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 43d

6Shot Gun Shack

Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-42 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Kearney Segura 24% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Buster Scruggs 12-1, R4: Woods N Water 7-2, R5: Kara Flash 8-1, R6: Age Of Reason 7-2 +1 more

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Gets a new rider, Carlos Perez replacing Kevin Roman. A 88-day gap since its last race.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.20 on Oct 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

RECORD Carlos Perez from post 6 here: 5 wins, 29 top-3 in 66 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last9th · 88d

9That's Apriority

Jockey Carlos Lozada 28% career 1-for-20 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Lee Thomas 36% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R2: San Juan Hill 10-1, R5: Jazzy Gal 6-1 · Trainer R5: Exploding Circle 9-2, R5: Jazzy Gal 6-1

180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here

Freshened 273 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Beaten ½ length for 2nd in a 6-horse $12,500 claiming race at DED.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.60 on Oct 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Carlos Lozada from post 9 here: 3 wins, 14 top-3 in 45 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

M/L4-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 273d

4Rocky Rock It

Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-40 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Desmond Fogarty 19% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Unfathomed 15-1, R4: Midnight Rules 8-1

Back to 5 furlongs off a 7½ furlongs race. Figures have slipped: 60, 59, 51 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 150d back)

RECORD Kevin Roman from post 4 here: 6 wins, 23 top-3 in 71 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

M/L20-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last5th · 29d

3King Jules

Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-42 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Juan Munoz Cano 31% career 1-for-20 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Baron Of The Nile 7-2, R4: Z's Guitar 12-1, R7: Weekendsandwhiskey 6-1, R8: Running Production 15-1 · Trainer R2: Baron Of The Nile 7-2, R4: Woods N Water 7-2, R4: All West 15-1

CLASS UPWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at DED at 3.9-1. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 78 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Apr 15; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 3 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 80 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

M/L12-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last1st · 18d

At a glance

Market favourite #7 PURSE THIEF (2-1) — our number agrees.
#7 PURSE THIEF — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.6% to their 23.4%).
#9 THAT'S APRIORITY — our #9 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 14.1%).
#10 RIPPLE'S ROCKET — our #2 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 11.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Shot Gun Shack; pressure from #7 Purse Thief, #4 Rocky Rock It; and works against #1 The Big Ben, #4 Rocky Rock It, #5 Benjamino.

Lead

6Shot Gun Shack1017Purse Thief914Rocky Rock It9010Ripple's Rocket8511Imperial Cruiser841The Big Ben818Big Country Boy785Benjamino77

Press

9That's Apriority903King Jules83

Stalk

2Hold My Hat80

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Shot Gun Shack

101

Purse Thief

Rocky Rock It

That's Apriority

Ripple's Rocket

Imperial Cruiser

King Jules

The Big Ben

Hold My Hat

Big Country Boy

Benjamino

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Big Country Boy

Shot Gun Shack

Purse Thief

That's Apriority

Imperial Cruiser

King Jules

Ripple's Rocket

The Big Ben

Rocky Rock It

Hold My Hat

Benjamino

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