DELTA DOWNS · RACE 4
UPCOMINGClaiming $4,000
Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 103.2
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Woods N Water (a closer, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 73 · 74 · 71. Backup is #2 Special Stormy at 10-1. Use #3 Z's Guitar in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Drops from $7,500 claiming to $4,000 claiming.
Was running in $5,000 claiming; today's $4,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. 5th last time, 5 lengths back, in a field of 10.
A big drop, $12,500 claiming to $4,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Off 51 days since the last start.
A longer trip: 7½ furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.
Tops the field on speed figures, a 76 against 75 for the next best. 3 wins from 7 starts at this distance.
382 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Albert Jr Journet takes over the training from John Anthony Leblanc.
Sheds 6 pounds from its last start. Posted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Jul 25, in 1:02.00.
Best recent figure is 71, well under the 79 par for this level. Has won 3 of 4 going today's distance.
Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Beaten 3½ lengths for 5th in an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at DED.
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 BUTLER CABIN (2-1) — our number has it ranked #5.
- #7 BUTLER CABIN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 26.3%).
- #6 WOODS N WATER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 17.5%).
- #4 CLEARLY COLOSSAL — our #8 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 14.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 SPECIAL STORMY (10-1) — our fair 8.8% is above the morning line's 7.2%; supported by: top barn (35%) + jockey (33%) at 10-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Tappin Fora Dance; pressure from #5 Cookn Wit Catman, #4 Clearly Colossal; the shape helps #4 Clearly Colossal, #9 All West; and works against #1 Tappin Fora Dance, #5 Cookn Wit Catman.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 4-5)
($1 MIN.)/PICK 3(RACES 4-6)/PICK 5(RACES 4-8)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta