● Live race intelligence · code DED

Delta Downs

Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Races
8
on the card
Feature
R3
State-Bred Maiden Special Weight · $43K
First post
5:40 PM
ET · race 1
Top model win %
25%
#9 Forty Three Cents

● Track conditions today

Delta Downs — today's signals

Surface read

±0.35s STEADY

Surface holds steady day to day — final times read true off the page, so our speed figures need little adjustment here.

day-to-day swing · 46 race-days sampled

Weather

Unavailable

No forecast for this track right now — surface read defaults to the listed condition.

Carryover pool

None today

No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.

Do the model's percentages hold up?

Mostly

Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.

checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06

TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST

Best post #3 (12%) · Rail helps

Rail/inside bias — posts 1-3 win 12% vs 7% outside. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 30,170 starts.

avg 10%12%112%212%311%412%511%610%78%88%98%102%110%12

Where the model is most sure

Three highest model win %.

The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.

R3 · 5 Furlongs Dirt

#9 Forty Three Cents

Fusilier C · Landry Allen Ray

Model win %
25%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
9-5

R1 · 5 Furlongs Dirt

#7 Purse Thief

Birzer A E · Tracy Tanner

Model win %
24%
Vs favourite
Agrees
M/L
2-1

R4 · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt

#6 Woods N Water

Perez Carlos · Cano Juan Munoz

Model win %
23%
Vs favourite
Differs
M/L
7-2

Top connections on the card

Trainers + jockeys to watch.

Trainer leaderboard

  1. Thomas Lee2 top picks
  2. Tracy Tanner1 top picks
  3. Martinez Sarah1 top picks
  4. Larrosa Juan A1 top picks
  5. Urbina Ruperto R1 top picks

Jockey leaderboard

  1. Birzer A E2 top picks
  2. Hernandez Harry2 top picks
  3. Nieves Emanuel1 top picks
  4. Fusilier C1 top picks
  5. Magnon Devin H1 top picks

Multi-race wagers

Today's sequences, leg by leg.

Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg, or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all. This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.

Pick 3Races 1–3
R1#7 Purse ThiefTop pick
R2#5 Julia's Warrior · #6 Critical Threat · #3 Donegal FreedomClose: top 3
R3#9 Forty Three Cents · #10 Boss KidClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 1–5
R1#7 Purse ThiefTop pick
R2#5 Julia's Warrior · #6 Critical Threat · #3 Donegal FreedomClose: top 3
R3#9 Forty Three Cents · #10 Boss KidClose: top 2
R4#6 Woods N Water · #2 Special StormyClose: top 2
R5#3 Jazzy Gal · #1 Exploding Circle · #4 Alyse ParkerClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 2–4
R2#5 Julia's Warrior · #6 Critical Threat · #3 Donegal FreedomClose: top 3
R3#9 Forty Three Cents · #10 Boss KidClose: top 2
R4#6 Woods N Water · #2 Special StormyClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 2–5
R2#5 Julia's Warrior · #6 Critical Threat · #3 Donegal FreedomClose: top 3
R3#9 Forty Three Cents · #10 Boss KidClose: top 2
R4#6 Woods N Water · #2 Special StormyClose: top 2
R5#3 Jazzy Gal · #1 Exploding Circle · #4 Alyse ParkerClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 3–5
R3#9 Forty Three Cents · #10 Boss KidClose: top 2
R4#6 Woods N Water · #2 Special StormyClose: top 2
R5#3 Jazzy Gal · #1 Exploding Circle · #4 Alyse ParkerClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 4–6
R4#6 Woods N Water · #2 Special StormyClose: top 2
R5#3 Jazzy Gal · #1 Exploding Circle · #4 Alyse ParkerClose: top 3
R6#2 Moenchanted · #3 Very Cosmopolitan · #1 Thats UnbelievableClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 4–8
R4#6 Woods N Water · #2 Special StormyClose: top 2
R5#3 Jazzy Gal · #1 Exploding Circle · #4 Alyse ParkerClose: top 3
R6#2 Moenchanted · #3 Very Cosmopolitan · #1 Thats UnbelievableClose: top 3
R7#1 WeekendsandwhiskeyTop pick
R8#3 Native RequiteTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 5–7
R5#3 Jazzy Gal · #1 Exploding Circle · #4 Alyse ParkerClose: top 3
R6#2 Moenchanted · #3 Very Cosmopolitan · #1 Thats UnbelievableClose: top 3
R7#1 WeekendsandwhiskeyTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 5–8
R5#3 Jazzy Gal · #1 Exploding Circle · #4 Alyse ParkerClose: top 3
R6#2 Moenchanted · #3 Very Cosmopolitan · #1 Thats UnbelievableClose: top 3
R7#1 WeekendsandwhiskeyTop pick
R8#3 Native RequiteTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 6–8
R6#2 Moenchanted · #3 Very Cosmopolitan · #1 Thats UnbelievableClose: top 3
R7#1 WeekendsandwhiskeyTop pick
R8#3 Native RequiteTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.

Today's races

Race-by-race with archetype.

Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.

R01

5 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $10,000

Purse $18,000 · 11 entered · Post 5:40 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#7 Purse Thief

Birzer A E / Tracy Tanner

M/L

2-1

Model 24% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R02

6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $4,000

Purse $12,000 · 10 entered · Post 6:08 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#5 Julia's Warrior

Hernandez Harry / Larrosa Juan A

M/L

5-1

Model 15% · favourite is #3

VIEW →
R03

5 Furlongs Dirt · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Purse $43,000 · 12 entered · Post 6:36 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#9 Forty Three Cents

Fusilier C / Landry Allen Ray

M/L

9-5

Model 25% · agrees with the favourite

VIEW →
R04

1 1/16 Miles Dirt · Claiming $4,000

Purse $11,000 · 9 entered · Post 7:04 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#6 Woods N Water

Perez Carlos / Cano Juan Munoz

M/L

7-2

Model 23% · favourite is #7

VIEW →
R05

5 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $5,000

Purse $14,000 · 10 entered · Post 7:32 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#3 Jazzy Gal

Lozada Carlos / Thomas Lee

M/L

6-1

Model 14% · favourite is #10

VIEW →
R06

7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $5,000

Purse $14,000 · 8 entered · Post 8:00 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#2 Moenchanted

Castillo Alexander / Wilson Melton

M/L

6-1

Model 15% · favourite is #3

VIEW →
R07

1 Mile Dirt · Allowance · $36,000 purse

Purse $36,000 · 10 entered · Post 8:28 PM ET

PRESSED PACE

Model's top pick

#1 Weekendsandwhiskey

Barrera Elio J / Gelner Jayde J

M/L

6-1

Model 15% · favourite is #8

VIEW →
R08

6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · Claiming $5,000

Purse $14,000 · 12 entered · Post 8:56 PM ET

SPEED DUEL

Model's top pick

#3 Native Requite

Arana Kelvin / Ward Ronnie

M/L

10-1

Model 11% · favourite is #9

VIEW →
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