★ Distance horse: #10 Flora Bound (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 54 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1Liberty SimoneJ. Inirio · J. BernardInirio · BernardA65 54 61▲▲+95-1Fair 7-112%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best65 54 61ACard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 65 54 61
Jockey Junior Inirio 24% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer John Bernard 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFFBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 65, with 64 next best. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Bumpd; swung5w; rally last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 28 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/27 EVD 6f D fsMd10000 3rd/10 -3L 65 11-1 b L Bumpd;swung5w;rally 7/30 EVD 6f D fsMd10000 5th/9 -4L 54 6.3-1 b L Pressed 5w; weakened 7/9 EVD 6f D MCL 12k 3rd/9 -3½L 61 6.3-1 b L Lackd room turn;closed 2North Lake Kate▼A. Ramos · M. HibdonRamos · HibdonB58 55 29▲▲+10↕9-2Fair 7-112%
▲▲ Big jump +1058 55 29 ↕B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 29–59 · Last 3 figs 58 55 29
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey A B Ramos 34% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Mark N Hibdon 35% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hotA longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today. Has moved up each time out, 29 to 55 to 58.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 43d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 DED 5f D MCL 10k 6th/9 -7¼L 58 30-1 L Moved up; no factor 9/20 SWF 5½f D MCL 10k 2nd/8 -2¼L 55 3.0-1 LB Swung 4w;willingly 8/14 ARP 7f D MSW 6th/7 -4½L 29 3.1-1 LB In clear 4path; empty 3Mediator▼I. Castillo · A. Journet Jr.Castillo · Journet Jr.C42 49 32►@trip 3215-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady42 49 32@trip 32C▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 32 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 42 49 32
▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Albert Jr Journet 15% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, R3: Electric Man 20-1, R3: Making Noise 8-1, R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-1 +3 more★ FASTEST WORKRaises its level, maiden claiming $5,000 last time and maiden claiming $10,000 now. New trainer: Joseph M Foster had it last time, Albert Jr Journet now.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jun 28; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 LAD 7f D fsMd5000 3rd/6 -8L 42 5.9-1 b L Pressed inside;savd3rd 8/12 LAD 7f D fsMd5000 3rd/8 -2L 49 16-1 b L 3-deep;chse;kept tryng 7/27 LAD 6½f D fsMd5000 7th/7 -7L 32 14-1 b L Movd in;early bid;fade 4Saucy Diem▼K. Arana · S. BreauxArana · BreauxC21 4620-1Fair 30-13%
—21 46C▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 21 46
▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Kelvin Arana 24% career 1-for-31 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Samuel Breaux 36% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)Also today · Jockey R3: Minimus Maximus 7-2, R8: Passion Strike 5-1 · Trainer this race: Little Miss Jess 8-1, R3: Making Noise 8-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF7th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 7. Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 6½ furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped; squeezed start), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 13d agoRECORD Kelvin Arana from post 4 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 29 rides · 5% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/14 EVD 5f D fsMd10000 7th/7 -10L 21 21-1 b L Bumped; squeezed start 7/30 EVD 6f D fsMd10000 8th/9 -5L 46 29-1 b L Pressed pace; gave way 5Little Miss Jess▼A. Birzer · S. BreauxBirzer · BreauxB458-1Fair 8-110%
—45B▼ Best fig 45 is 5+ under today's par 692Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 45
▼ Best fig 45 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Samuel Breaux 36% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)Also today · Jockey R2: Basile 12-1, R4: Stroller Boy 8-1, R5: Saint Robert's Row 10-1, R6: Cajun Mitole 12-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Saucy Diem 20-1, R3: Making Noise 8-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFJky 9/60 from post 5Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Was running in maiden claiming $20,000; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Checked turn; stopped. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 10d agoRECORD A E Birzer from post 5 here: 9 wins, 20 top-3 in 60 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/21 EVD 5f T MCL 20k 6th/7 -6L 45 17-1 L Checked turn; stopped 6The Get Out▼C. Perez · J. SanchezPerez · SanchezA62 57 56▲+4≡4-1Fair 4-120%
▲ Up +462 57 56 ≡A▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 691Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 56–62 · Last 3 figs 62 57 56
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-51 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Juan C Sanchez 34% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meetFigures are climbing: 56, 57, 62 over its last three. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 127d agoRECORD Carlos Perez from post 6 here: 5 wins, 29 top-3 in 66 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 DED 7f D MCL 10k 2nd/10 -1L 62 7.7-1 L No match; held place 8/29 EVD 7f D MCL 10k 4th/7 -6L 57 7.0-1 L Drift 5wd; evenly 8/13 EVD 7½f T MCL 20k 4th/7 -2L 56 11-1 L In contention; empty 7Nayakim▼E. Santiago · D. MelanconSantiago · MelanconC33 38 28►@trip 920-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady33 38 28@trip 9C▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 9 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 33 38 28
▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Edward Santiago 25% career 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Donald Melancon 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFFLASIX 1STDonald Melancon takes over the training from Dale A Swift. Moves up from maiden claiming $4,000 to maiden claiming $10,000.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 10d agoRECORD Edward Santiago from post 7 here: 1 win, 13 top-3 in 46 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 GIL 4f D sMd4000 7th/7 -7½L 33 18-1 Showed very little 8/15 GIL 4f D MCL 4k 6th/8 -4L 38 14-1 2nd pack rail no bid 6/20 LS 6f D fsMdSpWt 7th/7 -19L 28 24-1 Chsd4w;lacked rally 8Just Sailing Along▼LSC. Rosier · C. WoodleyRosier · WoodleyC44 1410-1Fair 12-18%
—44 14C▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 69LSCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 44 14
▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 69LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey C R Rosier 25% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Carl J Woodley 22% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFF95 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Traffic rail 3/8; empty), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 17d agoRECORD C R Rosier from post 8 here: 1 win, 12 top-3 in 36 rides · 7% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/27 LAD 5f T fsMd10000 5th/7 -2L 44 17-1 L Traffic rail 3/8;empty 6/25 EVD 5f D MCL 12k 7th/7 -7½L 14 19-1 L No factor; outrun 9MadoriaJ. Melancon · K. LeonardMelancon · LeonardA57 53 56►≡5-2Fair 9-219%
► Steady57 53 56 ≡A3Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 53–60 · Last 3 figs 57 53 56
Jockey Jansen Melancon 33% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Kirby Leonard 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Allons Betta Lee 5-1, R4: Whiskey And Easy 8-1, R6: Macho Beanie 10-1, R8: Copy This 20-1Tops the field on speed figures, a 65 against 64 for the next best. Maiden through 8 starts.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 175 days agoRECORD Jansen Melancon from post 9 here: 1 win, 15 top-3 in 58 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 DED 7f D MCL 10k 5th/10 -2½L 57 2.9-1 L Pressed; bid; faded 9/23 LAD 7½f T MSW 6th/7 -½L 53 3.4-1 L Headed 1/8;gave way 9/7 EVD 5f T MSW 7th/10 -5¼L 56 63-1 L Swung 5w; no menace 10Flora Bound▼★C. Del · R. AverettDel · AverettB58 49 48▲▲+9@trip 5412-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +958 49 48@trip 54B▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 69★ Best at the trip 54Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 54 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 49 48
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 69★ Best at the trip 54Jockey Cid Erick Del 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ronnie Averett 30% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%)Also today · Jockey R2: My Other Half 20-1, R3: Money Drop 12-1, R4: Blue Cheese 20-1 · Trainer R4: Blue Cheese 20-1Moves up from maiden claiming $5,000 to maiden claiming $10,000. Carries 114 pounds, 5 less than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 28d back)RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/21 DED 5f D MCL 5k 3rd/10 -3L 58 8.4-1 b L No match for top two 8/28 EVD 7f D fsMd5000 6th/11 -1½L 49 10-1 b L Vie2w;led;chase to 1/8 8/14 EVD 6f D fsMd5000 5th/8 -3½L 48 5.3-1 b L Lacked late response
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #10.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
DELTA DOWNS · RACE 1
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $10,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 The Get Out (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 62 · 57 · 56. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Little Miss Jess at 8-1. Use #9 Madoria in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 MADORIA (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #9 MADORIA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.5%).
- #6 THE GET OUT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 15.7%).
- #2 NORTH LAKE KATE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 14.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #10 Flora Bound; pressure from #3 Mediator; the shape helps #1 Liberty Simone, #2 North Lake Kate, #6 The Get Out; and works against #3 Mediator, #4 Saucy Diem, #5 Little Miss Jess.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA($1 MIN.)/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 1-2)
($1 MIN.)/PICK 3(RACES 1-3)/PICK 5(RACES 1-5)
BET OPTIONS
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