1Good and Stout▲▲T. Thornton · C. CastilleThornton · CastilleA88 84 85►≡7-2Fair 9-218%
► Steady88 84 85 ≡A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 85▲ Rider upgrade (37% vs 24%) cutting back to a sprint2Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–91 · Last 3 figs 88 84 85
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 85▲ Rider upgrade (37% vs 24%) cutting back to a sprintJockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 13-for-54 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Carrol Castille 21% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Miss Super Mo 8-1, R5: Imperial Cruiser 8-1, R7: Max Is G Money 8-1, R8: Copper Key 8-1 +1 more★ FASTEST WORKSwitches from turf to dirt. Beaten a head for 2nd in a 10-horse race at LAD.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 751d back)RECORD T G Thornton from post 1 here: 29 wins, 58 top-3 in 116 rides · 22% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LAD 1 1/16 T sLaCpTrfClB75k 2nd/10 by hd 88 14-1 b L Tracked;bid 2p;denied 8/31 EVD 1m T sAuRevoirB100k 4th/7 -2½L 84 11-1 b L Rallied; 5w; no threat 7/10 EVD -8f T sOC40000b 3rd/6 85 6.1-1 b L Checked turn; dueled 2RandemoniumE. Santiago · B. ChattersSantiago · ChattersC80 61 65▲▲+11↕@trip 8215-1Fair 20-14%
▲▲ Big jump +1180 61 65 ↕@trip 82CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 61 65
Jockey Edward Santiago 25% career 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Benard Chatters 35% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST3/3 board hereLast start was a win, in a 9-horse allowance race at EVD at 31-1. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.40 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dRECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)RECORD Edward Santiago from post 2 here: 5 wins, 15 top-3 in 57 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 EVD 1m T sAlw42000n3l Won/9 80 31-1 L Relaxed pace; held on 7/30 EVD 6f D sOC30000n2x 7th/7 -5¼L 61 22-1 L Veered out; off slowly 12/13 FG 6f D sLaJuvenilB125k 7th/7 -4½L 65 7.0-1 L Never threatened 3Letmikefigureitout▲D. Magnon · A. KlanferMagnon · KlanferA89 90 90►≡5-2Fair 4-121%
► Steady89 90 90 ≡A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 851Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 89–90 · Last 3 figs 89 90 90
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 85Jockey Devin H Magnon 24% career ★ 4-for-20 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Alan Klanfer 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFFRuns for $46,000 today after a $100,000 race last time. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 10d back)RECORD Devin H Magnon from post 3 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 32 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/31 EVD 6f D sLAStallnB100k 3rd/7 -1½L 89 1.8-1 b L Rallied; no menace 8/6 EVD 6½f D sOC30000b 2nd/10 by hd 90 1.0-1 b L Chased; held place 5/2 EVD 1m D sEVDClsscB75k 2nd/10 -1½L 90 2.0-1 b L Stalked; 2nd best 4Sounds Like PowerI. Castillo · J. LarrosaCastillo · LarrosaB80 92 74▼-36-1Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -380 92 74BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 80 92 74
Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Juan A Larrosa 34% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%)Also today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, R3: Electric Man 20-1, R3: Making Noise 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R9: Atmosphere 12-1★ FASTEST WORKBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 92, with 91 next best. Purse drops from $100,000 to $46,000 against its last start.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 DED 7f D sGoldCupB100k 5th/8 -5½L 80 14-1 L In middle; even effort 9/19 LAD 6f D sLaCupSpntB75k 3rd/6 -2L 92 6.4-1 L Brush brk;2p;rally 3rd 8/29 EVD 5f T sOC20000n2xc 5th/7 -4½L 74 6.8-1 b L 5wd trip; some run 5TdzshininluckystarC. Rosier · N. EscheteRosier · EscheteB83 77 73▲▲+10@trip 846-1Fair 12-18%
▲▲ Big jump +1083 77 73@trip 84BCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 77 73
Jockey C R Rosier 25% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Nason Eschete 22% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet4/5 board hereFigures are climbing: 73, 77, 83 over its last three. Purse drops from $100,000 to $46,000 against its last start.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d agoRECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts hereRECORD C R Rosier from post 5 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 49 rides · 7% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 DED 7f D sGoldCupB100k 2nd/8 -3L 83 101-1 b L No match; held 2nd 9/5 EVD 5½f D OC 30k b 7th/8 -3¾L 77 51-1 b L Carried in start;tired 8/6 EVD 6½f D sOC30000b 8th/10 -5¾L 73 85-1 b L Asked early; took back 6Behemah StarH. Hernandez · S. WilsonHernandez · WilsonC79 65 52▲▲+17↕12-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +1779 65 52 ↕CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–79 · Last 3 figs 79 65 52
Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-57 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Shane Wilson 32% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R4: Drewmazing 12-1, R5: Beaudreaux 5-1, R7: Fiesty Fist 9-2, R8: Mo Cantharus 15-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Otra Cosa 20-1180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSReturns from a 265-day break, the biggest in the field. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 0)TROUBLED TRIP Hopped; ins; shift out last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 13d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 2/7 FG 1m T sOC35000b 5th/8 -3¾L 79 42-1 b L Hopped;ins;shift out 1/15 FG 1m T sOC35000b 7th/8 -7½L 65 22-1 b L Track3w; retreated 12/13 FG 1 1/16 T sLaTurfB125k 11th/11 -11L 52 72-1 L No impact 7Saint Gabriel▲★T. Pompell · B. BrinkmanPompell · BrinkmanA85 85 81►≡@trip 898-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady85 85 81 ≡@trip 89A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 893Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–85 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 85 81
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 89Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 29 · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R2: Boohaki 8-1, R3: Ray Mefasolateedoe 20-1, R8: Last Two Dollars 12-1, R9: Lick Skillet 20-1 · Trainer R2: Boohaki 8-1, R5: Beaudreaux 5-1, this race: Cajun Mitole 12-160D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS4/6 board hereBack after 139 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 8d backRECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts hereRECORD T L Pompell from post 7 here: 12 wins, 32 top-3 in 80 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/13 EVD 6½f D sOC30000b 4th/7 -1L 85 1.9-1 b L Loom 1/4;no late resp 4/25 OP 1m D Alw n1x 3rd/7 -1L 85 9.8-1 b L 2p;bid5/16;led1/4;even 2/20 DED 7f D rCGApprecnt75k 4th/8 -½L 81 1.9-1 b L Duel2nd; weakened late 8Cajun MitoleA. Birzer · B. BrinkmanBirzer · BrinkmanC73 77 75▼-5≡12-1Fair 20-14%
▼ Down -573 77 75 ≡CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 73–82 · Last 3 figs 73 77 75
Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)Also today · Jockey R1: Little Miss Jess 8-1, R2: Basile 12-1, R4: Stroller Boy 8-1, R5: Saint Robert's Row 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Boohaki 8-1, R5: Beaudreaux 5-1, this race: Saint Gabriel 8-160D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2/3 board hereLast race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. 126 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 8d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD A E Birzer from post 8 here: 5 wins, 26 top-3 in 55 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/26 EVD 1m T Alw C 6th/7 -5½L 73 7.5-1 b L Mid pack btwn;empty 6/4 EVD 1m D sOC30000b 3rd/7 -2L 77 2.0-1 b L Well placed; no kick 4/11 EVD 1 1/16 T sDStmmnsMB75k 8th/11 -2¾L 75 11-1 b L In middle; faded 9Otra CosaP. Ramirez · S. WilsonRamirez · WilsonC76 68 50▲▲+14↕@trip 3420-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +1476 68 50 ↕@trip 34CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–76 · Best fig at today's trip 34 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 68 50
Jockey Paulina Ramirez 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Shane Wilson 32% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK2/4 board hereNeeds to move up: the best of its last five is 76 against a 85 par. Has moved up each time out, 50 to 68 to 76.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:02.00 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Paulina Ramirez from post 9 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 32 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/9 LAD 1m T OC 15k n1x 2nd/6 76 14-1 L Duel;led uppr;2nd best 8/27 EVD 1m T Alw C 6th/6 -6½L 68 20-1 L Keen;vie ins;empty 3/8 7/2 EVD 6½f D sOC20000n2x 7th/7 -11L 50 9.5-1 L Through early; stopped 10Macho BeanieJ. Melancon · A. LandryMelancon · LandryB76 86 91▼▼-910-1Fair 15-16%
▼▼ Big drop -976 86 91BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 76 86 91
Jockey Jansen Melancon 33% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Allen Ray Landry 37% career ★ 14-for-36 on dirt this meet (39%), #1 of 36Also today · Jockey R1: Madoria 5-2, R2: Allons Betta Lee 5-1, R4: Whiskey And Easy 8-1, R8: Copy This 20-1 · Trainer R2: Tensas Lu Lu 9-2, this race: Cajun Coaster 12-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1, R9: Kama Can 5-1180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFreshened 181 days. Watch how its recent works look. Worked 4F in :49.00 on Oct 16, 3rd of 54 at the distance.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d backRECORD Jansen Melancon from post 10 here: 10 wins, 21 top-3 in 53 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/2 EVD 1m D sEVDClsscB75k 8th/10 -7½L 76 22-1 b L Settled 3wd; no rally 4/17 EVD 6½f D sOC30000n4l 3rd/10 -3L 86 2.8-1 b L Bumped st; late gain 3/7 FG 1 1/16 D sOC20000n3lc Won/5 91 0.3-1 b L Well handled;drew off 11Cajun CoasterLSC. Fusilier · A. LandryFusilier · LandryC78 84 82►12-1Fair 12-17%
► Steady78 84 82CLSCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 78 84 82
LSLongshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey C Fusilier 32% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Allen Ray Landry 37% career ★ 14-for-36 on dirt this meet (39%), #1 of 36Also today · Jockey R2: Tensas Lu Lu 9-2, R5: Jungle Law 3-1, R5: Piastri 10-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Tensas Lu Lu 9-2, this race: Macho Beanie 10-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1, R9: Kama Can 5-160D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 0/17 from post 11Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Rail bid; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD C Fusilier has never won from post 11 here (0 top-3 in 17 rides) · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/6 EVD 6½f D sOC30000b 6th/10 -3¾L 78 14-1 b L Rail bid; faltered 7/2 EVD 6½f D sOC20000n2x Won/7 by ½ 84 6.4-1 b L Dueled; clear late 6/6 EVD 6f D sOC50000n2l Won/6 by hd 82 1.4-1 b L Up 1/16; drew clear 12Misdeal▼E. Barrera · S. MartinezBarrera · MartinezC78 76 68▲▲+915-1Fair 20-14%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best78 76 68C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 85Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 76 68
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 85Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-51 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Sarah Martinez 32% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)Also today · Jockey R2: Pot's Paycheck 10-1, R4: Flotation Station 8-1, R5: After Party 15-1, R7: Beach Blanket 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-12/3 board hereCarries 122 pounds, 4 more than last time. 2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 10.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 21d back)RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 DED 6½f D sAlw52000n3x 2nd/10 -1L 78 9.8-1 b L Up in time; DH 8/29 EVD 1m T sAlw42000n3l 7th/9 -2¾L 76 30-1 b L Shuffled;bid;faltered 8/3 LAD 7½f T sOC15000n2x 7th/7 by hd 68 70-1 b L Tiring; bothered 1/8
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
DELTA DOWNS · RACE 6
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $46,000 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 91.22
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Letmikefigureitout (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 89 · 90 · 90. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Good And Stout at 7-2. Use #7 Saint Gabriel in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 LETMIKEFIGUREITOUT (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #3 LETMIKEFIGUREITOUT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.8% to their 20.4%).
- #1 GOOD AND STOUT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 15.9%).
- #4 SOUNDS LIKE POWER — our #5 number, about right at the windows (9.5% to their 10.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #9 Otra Cosa; pressure from #6 Behemah Star, #3 Letmikefigureitout; the shape helps #1 Good And Stout, #2 Randemonium, #3 Letmikefigureitout; and works against #6 Behemah Star, #9 Otra Cosa.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA($1 MIN.)/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 6-7)
($1 MIN.)/PICK 3(RACES 6-8)/PICK 4(RACES 6-9)
BET OPTIONS
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