R6 Delta Downs · State-Bred Allowance · $46,000 purse

8:00 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $46,000 · 12 runners8:00 PM · 7½f Dirt · 12 runners

Upcoming $46K · State-Bred Allowance · $46,000 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Good and Stout▲▲T. Thornton · C. CastilleThornton · CastilleA88 84 85►≡7-2Fair 9-218%► Steady88 84 85 ≡A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 85▲ Rider upgrade (37% vs 24%) cutting back to a sprint2

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–91 · Last 3 figs 88 84 85

    ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 85▲ Rider upgrade (37% vs 24%) cutting back to a sprint
    Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 13-for-54 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Carrol Castille 21% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Super Mo 8-1, R5: Imperial Cruiser 8-1, R7: Max Is G Money 8-1, R8: Copper Key 8-1 +1 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Switches from turf to dirt. Beaten a head for 2nd in a 10-horse race at LAD.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 751d back)
    RECORD T G Thornton from post 1 here: 29 wins, 58 top-3 in 116 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19LAD1 1/16 TsLaCpTrfClB75k2nd/10 by hd8814-1b LTracked;bid 2p;denied
    8/31EVD1m TsAuRevoirB100k4th/7 -2½L8411-1b LRallied; 5w; no threat
    7/10EVD-8f TsOC40000b3rd/6856.1-1b LChecked turn; dueled
  2. 2RandemoniumE. Santiago · B. ChattersSantiago · ChattersC80 61 65▲▲+11↕@trip 8215-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1180 61 65 ↕@trip 82C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 61 65

    Jockey Edward Santiago 25% career 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Benard Chatters 35% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Nayakim 20-1
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST3/3 board here

    Last start was a win, in a 9-horse allowance race at EVD at 31-1. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.40 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
    RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (2 wins)
    RECORD Edward Santiago from post 2 here: 5 wins, 15 top-3 in 57 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/29EVD1m TsAlw42000n3lWon/98031-1LRelaxed pace; held on
    7/30EVD6f DsOC30000n2x7th/7 -5¼L6122-1LVeered out; off slowly
    12/13FG6f DsLaJuvenilB125k7th/7 -4½L657.0-1LNever threatened
  3. 3Letmikefigureitout▲D. Magnon · A. KlanferMagnon · KlanferA89 90 90►≡5-2Fair 4-121%► Steady89 90 90 ≡A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 851

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 89–90 · Last 3 figs 89 90 90

    ▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 85
    Jockey Devin H Magnon 24% career ★ 4-for-20 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Alan Klanfer 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Catalina Classic 10-1 · Trainer R2: Allons Betta Lee 5-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Runs for $46,000 today after a $100,000 race last time. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 10d back)
    RECORD Devin H Magnon from post 3 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 32 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/31EVD6f DsLAStallnB100k3rd/7 -1½L891.8-1b LRallied; no menace
    8/6EVD6½f DsOC30000b2nd/10 by hd901.0-1b LChased; held place
    5/2EVD1m DsEVDClsscB75k2nd/10 -1½L902.0-1b LStalked; 2nd best
  4. 4Sounds Like PowerI. Castillo · J. LarrosaCastillo · LarrosaB80 92 74▼-36-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -380 92 74B

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 80 92 74

    Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Juan A Larrosa 34% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, R3: Electric Man 20-1, R3: Making Noise 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R9: Atmosphere 12-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 92, with 91 next best. Purse drops from $100,000 to $46,000 against its last start.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10DED7f DsGoldCupB100k5th/8 -5½L8014-1LIn middle; even effort
    9/19LAD6f DsLaCupSpntB75k3rd/6 -2L926.4-1LBrush brk;2p;rally 3rd
    8/29EVD5f TsOC20000n2xc5th/7 -4½L746.8-1b L5wd trip; some run
  5. 5TdzshininluckystarC. Rosier · N. EscheteRosier · EscheteB83 77 73▲▲+10@trip 846-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +1083 77 73@trip 84B

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 77 73

    Jockey C R Rosier 25% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Nason Eschete 22% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Just Sailing Along 10-1, R8: Wicked No Mo 12-1
    4/5 board here

    Figures are climbing: 73, 77, 83 over its last three. Purse drops from $100,000 to $46,000 against its last start.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here
    RECORD C R Rosier from post 5 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 49 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10DED7f DsGoldCupB100k2nd/8 -3L83101-1b LNo match; held 2nd
    9/5EVD5½f DOC 30k b7th/8 -3¾L7751-1b LCarried in start;tired
    8/6EVD6½f DsOC30000b8th/10 -5¾L7385-1b LAsked early; took back
  6. 6Behemah StarH. Hernandez · S. WilsonHernandez · WilsonC79 65 52▲▲+17↕12-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1779 65 52 ↕C

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 52–79 · Last 3 figs 79 65 52

    Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-57 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Shane Wilson 32% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R4: Drewmazing 12-1, R5: Beaudreaux 5-1, R7: Fiesty Fist 9-2, R8: Mo Cantharus 15-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Otra Cosa 20-1
    180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Returns from a 265-day break, the biggest in the field. Winless in 5 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 0)
    TROUBLED TRIP Hopped; ins; shift out last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 13d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    2/7FG1m TsOC35000b5th/8 -3¾L7942-1b LHopped;ins;shift out
    1/15FG1m TsOC35000b7th/8 -7½L6522-1b LTrack3w; retreated
    12/13FG1 1/16 TsLaTurfB125k11th/11 -11L5272-1LNo impact
  7. 7Saint Gabriel▲★T. Pompell · B. BrinkmanPompell · BrinkmanA85 85 81►≡@trip 898-1Fair 10-19%► Steady85 85 81 ≡@trip 89A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 893

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–85 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 85 81

    ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 89
    Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 29 · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Boohaki 8-1, R3: Ray Mefasolateedoe 20-1, R8: Last Two Dollars 12-1, R9: Lick Skillet 20-1 · Trainer R2: Boohaki 8-1, R5: Beaudreaux 5-1, this race: Cajun Mitole 12-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS4/6 board here

    Back after 139 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 8d back
    RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here
    RECORD T L Pompell from post 7 here: 12 wins, 32 top-3 in 80 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/13EVD6½f DsOC30000b4th/7 -1L851.9-1b LLoom 1/4;no late resp
    4/25OP1m DAlw n1x3rd/7 -1L859.8-1b L2p;bid5/16;led1/4;even
    2/20DED7f DrCGApprecnt75k4th/8 -½L811.9-1b LDuel2nd; weakened late
  8. 8Cajun MitoleA. Birzer · B. BrinkmanBirzer · BrinkmanC73 77 75▼-5≡12-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -573 77 75 ≡C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 73–82 · Last 3 figs 73 77 75

    Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Little Miss Jess 8-1, R2: Basile 12-1, R4: Stroller Boy 8-1, R5: Saint Robert's Row 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Boohaki 8-1, R5: Beaudreaux 5-1, this race: Saint Gabriel 8-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS2/3 board here

    Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. 126 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD A E Birzer from post 8 here: 5 wins, 26 top-3 in 55 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/26EVD1m TAlw C6th/7 -5½L737.5-1b LMid pack btwn;empty
    6/4EVD1m DsOC30000b3rd/7 -2L772.0-1b LWell placed; no kick
    4/11EVD1 1/16 TsDStmmnsMB75k8th/11 -2¾L7511-1b LIn middle; faded
  9. 9Otra CosaP. Ramirez · S. WilsonRamirez · WilsonC76 68 50▲▲+14↕@trip 3420-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +1476 68 50 ↕@trip 34C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–76 · Best fig at today's trip 34 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 68 50

    Jockey Paulina Ramirez 33% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Shane Wilson 32% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot
    Also today · Trainer this race: Behemah Star 12-1
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK2/4 board here

    Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 76 against a 85 par. Has moved up each time out, 50 to 68 to 76.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:02.00 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD Paulina Ramirez from post 9 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 32 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/9LAD1m TOC 15k n1x2nd/67614-1LDuel;led uppr;2nd best
    8/27EVD1m TAlw C6th/6 -6½L6820-1LKeen;vie ins;empty 3/8
    7/2EVD6½f DsOC20000n2x7th/7 -11L509.5-1LThrough early; stopped
  10. 10Macho BeanieJ. Melancon · A. LandryMelancon · LandryB76 86 91▼▼-910-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -976 86 91B

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 76 86 91

    Jockey Jansen Melancon 33% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Allen Ray Landry 37% career ★ 14-for-36 on dirt this meet (39%), #1 of 36
    Also today · Jockey R1: Madoria 5-2, R2: Allons Betta Lee 5-1, R4: Whiskey And Easy 8-1, R8: Copy This 20-1 · Trainer R2: Tensas Lu Lu 9-2, this race: Cajun Coaster 12-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1, R9: Kama Can 5-1
    180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Freshened 181 days. Watch how its recent works look. Worked 4F in :49.00 on Oct 16, 3rd of 54 at the distance.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back
    RECORD Jansen Melancon from post 10 here: 10 wins, 21 top-3 in 53 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    5/2EVD1m DsEVDClsscB75k8th/10 -7½L7622-1b LSettled 3wd; no rally
    4/17EVD6½f DsOC30000n4l3rd/10 -3L862.8-1b LBumped st; late gain
    3/7FG1 1/16 DsOC20000n3lcWon/5910.3-1b LWell handled;drew off
  11. 11Cajun CoasterLSC. Fusilier · A. LandryFusilier · LandryC78 84 82►12-1Fair 12-17%► Steady78 84 82CLS

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 78 84 82

    LS

    Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey C Fusilier 32% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Allen Ray Landry 37% career ★ 14-for-36 on dirt this meet (39%), #1 of 36
    Also today · Jockey R2: Tensas Lu Lu 9-2, R5: Jungle Law 3-1, R5: Piastri 10-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Tensas Lu Lu 9-2, this race: Macho Beanie 10-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1, R9: Kama Can 5-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 0/17 from post 11

    Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    TROUBLED TRIP Rail bid; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
    RECORD C Fusilier has never won from post 11 here (0 top-3 in 17 rides) · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/6EVD6½f DsOC30000b6th/10 -3¾L7814-1b LRail bid; faltered
    7/2EVD6½f DsOC20000n2xWon/7 by ½846.4-1b LDueled; clear late
    6/6EVD6f DsOC50000n2lWon/6 by hd821.4-1b LUp 1/16; drew clear
  12. 12Misdeal▼E. Barrera · S. MartinezBarrera · MartinezC78 76 68▲▲+915-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best78 76 68C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 85

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 76 68

    ▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 85
    Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-51 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Sarah Martinez 32% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Pot's Paycheck 10-1, R4: Flotation Station 8-1, R5: After Party 15-1, R7: Beach Blanket 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-1
    2/3 board here

    Carries 122 pounds, 4 more than last time. 2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 10.

    EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 21d back)
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15DED6½f DsAlw52000n3x2nd/10 -1L789.8-1b LUp in time; DH
    8/29EVD1m TsAlw42000n3l7th/9 -2¾L7630-1b LShuffled;bid;faltered
    8/3LAD7½f TsOC15000n2x7th/7 by hd6870-1b LTiring; bothered 1/8

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART7 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $46,000 purse

Field
12 runners
Purse
$46,000
Post
8:00 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#3 · 21%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 91.22

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Letmikefigureitout (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 89 · 90 · 90. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Good And Stout at 7-2. Use #7 Saint Gabriel in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 LETMIKEFIGUREITOUT (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #3 LETMIKEFIGUREITOUT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.8% to their 20.4%).
  • #1 GOOD AND STOUT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 15.9%).
  • #4 SOUNDS LIKE POWER — our #5 number, about right at the windows (9.5% to their 10.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Otra Cosa; pressure from #6 Behemah Star, #3 Letmikefigureitout; the shape helps #1 Good And Stout, #2 Randemonium, #3 Letmikefigureitout; and works against #6 Behemah Star, #9 Otra Cosa.

Lead
9Otra Cosa786Behemah Star66
Press
3Letmikefigureitout922Randemonium887Saint Gabriel8510Macho Beanie8311Cajun Coaster83
Stalk
8Cajun Mitole924Sounds Like Power865Tdzshininluckystar841Good And Stout75
Close
12Misdeal84

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

3
Letmikefigureitout
92
8
Cajun Mitole
92
2
Randemonium
88
4
Sounds Like Power
86
7
Saint Gabriel
85
5
Tdzshininluckystar
84
10
Macho Beanie
83
11
Cajun Coaster
83
9
Otra Cosa
78
1
Good And Stout
75
6
Behemah Star
66

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

12
Misdeal
12
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