★ Distance horse: #12 After Party (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 84 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1SyntagmaC. Hernandez · K. BourgeoisHernandez · BourgeoisB71 69 69▲+3≡4-1Fair 8-111%
▲ Up +371 69 69 ≡BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 65–71 · Last 3 figs 71 69 69
Jockey Colby J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Keith Bourgeois 33% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 36 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: What's Love 5-1, R3: Truvy's T Rex 9-2, R8: Romantic Rumor 8-1, R9: Captain Junuh 2-1 · Trainer R8: Romantic Rumor 8-1CLASS UPClass relief: $20,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 31 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 DED 7f D Clm 20k n2l 5th/10 -3¼L 71 3.6-1 L Even effort; no rally 8/28 EVD 7f D MCL 10k Won/8 69 0.1-1 L 3w bid;drift;took over 8/13 EVD 1m T MCL 12k 2nd/12 -2½L 69 2.8-1 L Steady close; up 2nd 2More Than CuteJ. Hernandez · C. GoveaHernandez · GoveaA75 68 68▲+6≡@trip 758-1Fair 7-113%
▲ Up +6 · career best75 68 68 ≡@trip 75A1Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 68–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 68 68
Jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez 38% career 4-for-41 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Cesar Govea 24% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%)3rd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 7. A 55-day gap since its last race.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 9d agoRECORD Javier Antonio Hernandez from post 2 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 25 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 EVD 6½f D Clm 10k n2l 3rd/7 -1½L 75 5.7-1 b L Off slowly; inside bid 8/8 EVD 7f D Clm 10k n2lc 5th/7 -6L 68 7.0-1 b L Came again; faltered 7/25 EVD 7f D Clm 20k n2l 4th/8 -2¾L 68 15-1 b L Bumpd start;swung wide 3Imperial CruiserT. Thornton · W. CalhounThornton · CalhounB61 70 69►↕8-1Fair 10-18%
► Steady61 70 69 ↕BCard model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–70 · Last 3 figs 61 70 69
Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 13-for-54 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 29 · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Miss Super Mo 8-1, R6: Good And Stout 7-2, R7: Max Is G Money 8-1, R8: Copper Key 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: What's Love 5-1, R2: Miss Super Mo 8-1Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 6½ furlongs. Drops from allowance to $10,000 claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 31d back)RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD T G Thornton from post 3 here: 23 wins, 47 top-3 in 105 rides · 22% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 DED 5f D sAlw51000n1x 8th/10 -10L 61 15-1 L Showed little 9/7 EVD 6f D sAlw41000n1x 4th/7 -3½L 70 18-1 L Vied inside; faltered 2/21 DED 5f D sOC50000n2l 4th/6 -½L 69 4.0-1 L Spd;caught;weakened 4Billy's Got Issues▼LSC. Perez · C. ConstantinePerez · ConstantineC53 59 69▼▼-9@trip 5915-1Fair 20-15%
▼▼ Big drop -953 59 69@trip 59C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 59 69
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-51 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Carol Constantine 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPSwitches from turf to dirt. A 69 is the high figure lately, short of the 78 par.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumpd; 5w 1st; empty. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Nov 25 (4F in :48.80), 1 work in 30dRECORD Carlos Perez from post 4 here: 6 wins, 24 top-3 in 64 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/27 EVD 1m T Clm 10k n2l 9th/9 -10L 53 92-1 b L Bumpd;5w 1st;empty 8/14 EVD 7½f T Clm 20k n2l 7th/7 -4½L 59 26-1 b L Squeezed upper stretch 7/24 EVD -8f T OC 15k 6th/7 -3½L 69 41-1 b L Svg grnd;9w upr;no bid 5Go EasyJ. Rodriguez · L. ThomasRodriguez · ThomasC64 45 46▲▲+9↕@trip 7512-1Fair 12-17%
▲▲ Big jump +964 45 46 ↕@trip 75C3Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 45–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 45 46
Jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez 34% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Lee Thomas 36% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hot60D LAYOFFCLASS UP★ FASTEST WORKFreshened 125 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 15; 2 works in 30dRECORD Jose Luis Rodriguez from post 5 here: 10 wins, 24 top-3 in 69 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/27 EVD 5f T sOC50000n2l 6th/7 -3¾L 64 31-1 b L No spd; saved ground 5/8 EVD 5f D Clm 17k n2l 6th/6 -6L 45 3.7-1 b L Bumped start; no bid 1/21 DED 6½f D Alw n2l 8th/8 -11L 46 9.0-1 b L Floatout;trck;stdyfade 6Jungle LawC. Fusilier · P. DuhonFusilier · DuhonA64 66 74▼-63-1Fair 9-218%
▼ Down -664 66 74A2Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 64 66 74
Jockey C Fusilier 32% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Paul Duhon 28% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Tensas Lu Lu 9-2, this race: Piastri 10-1, R6: Cajun Coaster 12-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Piastri 10-160D LAYOFFBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 79 next best. Figures have slipped: 74, 66, 64 over its last three.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 37d back)RECORD C Fusilier from post 6 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 41 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/31 EVD -5f T Clm 20k n2l 3rd/8 -2½L 64 6.8-1 b L Late surge;up wire 3rd 7/11 EVD -7½f T Clm 20k n2l 6th/9 -1½L 66 7.8-1 b L 4-w 2nd; empty 6/11 EVD 6f D Clm 20k n2l 3rd/7 -1L 74 2.9-1 b L Vied inside; hung late 7Eligio▼A. Castillo · G. BryantCastillo · BryantC62 67 58▼-3@trip 6510-1Fair 15-17%
▼ Down -362 67 58@trip 65C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 67 58
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 0-for-27 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer George Bryant 30% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: One Grand Slam 15-1, R4: Huey Duey 15-1, R7: Essay 6-1, R9: Global Heat Wave 15-1 · Trainer R7: Essay 6-160D LAYOFFJky 0/50 from post 7Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Beaten 2 lengths for 2nd in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at LAD.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 16d backRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Alexander Castillo has never won from post 7 here (10 top-3 in 50 rides) · 5% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/26 LAD 7½f T Clm 7k n2l 2nd/8 -2L 62 0.9-1 b L Rail bid; fnsh strong 8/5 LAD 1m T Clm 10k n2l 4th/7 -3¼L 67 12-1 b L 3wd;shift 4wd;empty 6/27 LS 6f D Clm 10k n2l 8th/8 -5L 58 13-1 b L Vied 2p btwn;faltered 8BeaudreauxH. Hernandez · B. BrinkmanHernandez · BrinkmanA74 76 59▲▲+8@trip 695-1Fair 10-110%
▲▲ Big jump +874 76 59@trip 69ACard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 76 59
Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-57 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R4: Drewmazing 12-1, R6: Behemah Star 12-1, R7: Fiesty Fist 9-2, R8: Mo Cantharus 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Boohaki 8-1, R6: Saint Gabriel 8-1, R6: Cajun Mitole 12-160D LAYOFF2/3 board hereLed at the first call last time. Carries 120 pounds, 4 less than last time.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 23d agoRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/26 LAD 7f D Clm 10k n2l 2nd/5 by hd 74 1.2-1 b L Prsrd; gamely;grdgngly 7/20 LAD 7f D MCL 10k Won/6 76 2.0-1 b L 4w bid 1/4;long duel 2/12 DED 1m D MCL 10k 5th/9 -7L 59 8.7-1 b L Off pc; finish evenly 9Saint Robert's Row▼A. Birzer · J. BerndtBirzer · BerndtC64 61 62▲+3≡10-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +3 · career best64 61 62 ≡C▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 60–64 · Last 3 figs 64 61 62
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Joel Berndt 35% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R1: Little Miss Jess 8-1, R2: Basile 12-1, R4: Stroller Boy 8-1, R6: Cajun Mitole 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Lieutenant Charm 4-160D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTJky 5/34 from post 9Gets a new rider, A E Birzer replacing Eduardo Gallardo. Last start was a win, in a 6-horse maiden claiming $7,500 race at CBY at 4-1.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.TROUBLED TRIP Stumble brk; 2p; held last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 18 (5F in 1:02.00), 1 work in 30dRECORD A E Birzer from post 9 here: 5 wins, 11 top-3 in 34 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/23 CBY 7f D MCL 7k Won/6 64 4.0-1 b L Stumble brk;2p;held 7/30 CBY 1m T MSW 5th/7 -5L 61 8.3-1 b L 5w trip;7w upr;evenly 7/12 CBY 1m T MSW 5th/7 -2¼L 62 9.6-1 b L Stalk;2-3p;outkicked 10Don'tstopthaspirit▲I. Castillo · S. MartinezCastillo · MartinezB78 64 56▲▲+1810-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best78 64 56B▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 78Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 64 56
▲ Last fig 78 at/above par 78Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Sarah Martinez 32% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)Also today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, R3: Electric Man 20-1, R3: Making Noise 8-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, R6: Misdeal 15-1WON LASTHas moved up each time out, 56 to 64 to 78. Won last out in a 10-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at DED.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Speed; pulled away.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 15 (3F in :35.20), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 DED 7f D MCL 10k Won/10 78 2.8-1 b L Speed; pulled away 8/28 EVD 7f D MCL 10k 2nd/8 -½L 64 23-1 b L Very keen;not enuf1/8 8/15 EVD 5½f D MCL 12k 5th/9 -3½L 56 18-1 b L Bumped start;bid;empty 11Piastri▼C. Fusilier · P. DuhonFusilier · DuhonC71 72 67►≡@trip 5810-1Fair 20-15%
► Steady71 72 67 ≡@trip 58C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–72 · Best fig at today's trip 58 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 72 67
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 78Jockey C Fusilier 32% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Paul Duhon 28% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Tensas Lu Lu 9-2, this race: Jungle Law 3-1, R6: Cajun Coaster 12-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Jungle Law 3-1Jky 0/17 from post 11New trainer: Jonas Gibson had it last time, Paul Duhon now. A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 31d back)RECORD C Fusilier has never won from post 11 here (0 top-3 in 17 rides) · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 DED 1m D Clm 5k n2lc 2nd/9 -½L 71 2.6-1 b L No match; clear 2nd 9/4 EVD 1m D Clm 5k n2l 3rd/7 -1½L 72 2.1-1 b L Vied 2w; evenly late 7/31 EVD 1m D Clm 5k n2l 2nd/7 -2½L 67 3.2-1 b L 5w bid;closed;2nd best 12After Party★E. Barrera · J. CanoBarrera · CanoC55 79 51▼▼-10↕@trip 8415-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -1055 79 51 ↕@trip 84C★ Best at the trip 84Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–79 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 79 51
★ Best at the trip 84Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-51 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Juan Munoz Cano 31% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%)Also today · Jockey R2: Pot's Paycheck 10-1, R4: Flotation Station 8-1, R6: Misdeal 15-1, R7: Beach Blanket 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Order Up 20-1, R7: Solidify 12-1★ FASTEST WORKGoes 6½ furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time. A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 25 (5F in 1:02.00), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 DED 5f D Clm 5k n2l 8th/10 by nk 55 1.2-1 b L Speed; finished early 8/22 EVD 6f D Clm 5k n2l 2nd/7 -½L 79 2.7-1 b L Led; wide; no match 8/14 EVD 5f T Clm 15k n2l 10th/10 -9L 51 8.3-1 b L Checked turn; stopped
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
DELTA DOWNS · RACE 5
UPCOMINGClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #2 More Than Cute (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 75 · 68 · 68. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Jungle Law at 3-1. Use #5 Go Easy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 JUNGLE LAW (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #6 JUNGLE LAW — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 17.8%).
- #1 SYNTAGMA — our #10 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 14.2%).
- #8 BEAUDREAUX — our #6 number, about right at the windows (11.1% to their 11.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 MORE THAN CUTE (8-1) — our fair 9.3% is above the morning line's 7.9%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #10 Don'tstopthaspirit; pressure from #12 After Party, #3 Imperial Cruiser; the shape helps #2 More Than Cute, #4 Billy's Got Issues; and works against #3 Imperial Cruiser, #5 Go Easy, #10 Don'tstopthaspirit.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA($1 MIN.)/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 5-6)
($1 MIN.)/PICK 3(RACES 5-7)/PICK 5(RACES 5-9)
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