R2 Delta Downs · State-Bred Allowance · $44,000 purse

6:08 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Dirt · $44,000 · 11 runners6:08 PM · 5f Dirt · 11 runners

Upcoming $44K · State-Bred Allowance · $44,000 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1What's LoveC. Hernandez · W. CalhounHernandez · CalhounC53 61 75▼▼-16↕@trip 735-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1653 61 75 ↕@trip 73C1

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–75 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 61 75

    Jockey Colby J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 29 · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R3: Truvy's T Rex 9-2, R5: Syntagma 4-1, R8: Romantic Rumor 8-1, R9: Captain Junuh 2-1 · Trainer this race: Miss Super Mo 8-1, R5: Imperial Cruiser 8-1
    180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Freshened 188 days. Watch how its recent works look. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 5 furlongs.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 10d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/25EVD7f DfsOC50000n2l7th/8 -5½L536.6-1L2-w; gave way
    3/21FG1 1/16 DfsCsntCtyOkB100k5th/6 -6½L6113-1L3-2w;asked 4w;empty
    2/28FG6f DfsMdSpWtWon/7 by 6750.4-1LIns; 3wbid; in time
  2. 2Mika Ella PikaE. Murray · J. NeyMurray · NeyA74 68 81►@trip 683-1Fair 6-115%► Steady74 68 81@trip 68A3

    Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 68 81

    Jockey Erica M Murray 22% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer John Ney 23% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 81, with 80 next best. 3rd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 7.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Lugged in 1/8; caught last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 11d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/29EVD6f DfsAlw41000n1x3rd/7 -2L745.7-1LLugged in 1/8; caught
    6/25EVD5f TfsAlw41000n1x8th/12 -4½L685.0-1LEven effort; outrun
    4/25EVD5½f DfsAlw41000n1x2nd/7813.3-1L3-w; led; game try
  3. 3Wickedly RoyalI. Castillo · S. MartinezCastillo · MartinezC71 72 71►≡@trip 7115-1Fair 20-14%► Steady71 72 71 ≡@trip 71C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–72 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 72 71

    Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Sarah Martinez 32% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R3: Electric Man 20-1, R3: Making Noise 8-1, R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-1, R6: Misdeal 15-1

    Moves up from $5,000 claiming to allowance. Changes barns, from Jervon Broussard to Sarah Martinez.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 14d ago)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/12LAD5½f DfsClm5000bc2nd/5 -3L711.4-1b L3w 1/4;angled in;up2nd
    7/27LAD6f DOC 10k3rd/6 -3L724.4-1b LAngled 3w1/4;nailed2nd
    6/23LAD5f DOC 10k c3rd/7 -1L7113-1b LBrk in/bp;4-3w;brf bid
  4. 4BasileA. Birzer · I. Solis-GuevaraBirzer · Solis-GuevaraC59 76 71▼▼-1012-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1059 76 71C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 59 76 71

    Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ismael Solis-Guevara 28% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Little Miss Jess 8-1, R4: Stroller Boy 8-1, R5: Saint Robert's Row 10-1, R6: Cajun Mitole 12-1 +1 more
    60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

    Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance now. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
    TROUBLED TRIP Veered out; bumpd start last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 14d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here
    RECORD A E Birzer from post 4 here: 9 wins, 28 top-3 in 81 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/15EVD5½f DOC 10k6th/7 -3½L5922-1b LVeered out;bumpd start
    7/25EVD-5f TfsClm15000b5th/8 -2½L7617-1b LSwung wide;leveled off
    6/25EVD5f TfsAlw41000n1x5th/12 -2½L7114-1b LLacked late response
  5. 5BoohakiT. Pompell · B. BrinkmanPompell · BrinkmanB62 79@trip 798-1Fair 15-17%—62 79@trip 79B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 79

    Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 29 · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 5-for-28 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Ray Mefasolateedoe 20-1, R6: Saint Gabriel 8-1, R8: Last Two Dollars 12-1, R9: Lick Skillet 20-1 · Trainer R5: Beaudreaux 5-1, R6: Saint Gabriel 8-1, R6: Cajun Mitole 12-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Back after 104 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Finished 7th in a 7-horse optional claiming race at EVD, beaten ½ length.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 4 (5F in 1:02.40), 3 works in 30d
    RECORD T L Pompell from post 5 here: 9 wins, 45 top-3 in 91 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/18EVD6f DfsOC50000n2l7th/7 -½L624.2-1LHustled ins;empty3/16
    6/19EVD5f DfsMdSpWtWon/7796.2-1LDrew off; ridden out
  6. 6My Other Half▼LSC. Del · C. CormierDel · CormierC64 72 67►↕@trip 7220-1Fair 20-15%► Steady64 72 67 ↕@trip 72C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77LS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–72 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 72 67

    ▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 77LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Cid Erick Del 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cardel Cormier 19% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Flora Bound 12-1, R3: Money Drop 12-1, R4: Blue Cheese 20-1
    CLASS DROP

    Cardel Cormier takes over the training from Allen Ray Landry. A step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, allowance today.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 20d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7EVD5f DClm 10k n2lc4th/11642.6-1LEarly speed; weakened
    7/31EVD-5f TClm 20k n2l2nd/6721.5-1LLed to final strides
    7/11EVD-5f TClm 20k n2l2nd/8 -2L677.8-1LNo match; held 2nd
  7. 7Tensas Lu Lu▼C. Fusilier · A. LandryFusilier · LandryB67 78 60▼-4@trip 789-2Fair 8-112%▼ Down -467 78 60@trip 78B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (67 vs 78)

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 78 60

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (67 vs 78)
    Jockey C Fusilier 32% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Allen Ray Landry 37% career ★ 14-for-36 on dirt this meet (39%), #1 of 36
    Also today · Jockey R5: Jungle Law 3-1, R5: Piastri 10-1, R6: Cajun Coaster 12-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Macho Beanie 10-1, R6: Cajun Coaster 12-1, R8: Cajun Caviar 2-1, R9: Kama Can 5-1

    Worked 4F in :49.40 on Sep 22, 2nd of 59 at the distance. Last out was 5th, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at DED.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 38 days ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 6 starts here
    RECORD C Fusilier from post 7 here: 4 wins, 13 top-3 in 52 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/15DED5f DfsAlw51000n1x5th/10 -2L674.5-1b LEven effort; no kick
    8/6EVD5½f DClm 5k bWon/7782.5-1b LAsked; responded
    6/25EVD5f TfsAlw41000n1x12th/12 -5L607.6-1b LStalked; stopped turn
  8. 8Pot's PaycheckE. Barrera · R. WardBarrera · WardC67 75 74▼-7≡@trip 6310-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -767 75 74 ≡@trip 63C

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 67–75 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 75 74

    Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-51 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ronnie Ward 36% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Flotation Station 8-1, R5: After Party 15-1, R6: Misdeal 15-1, R7: Beach Blanket 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Minimus Maximus 7-2, R8: My Hintof Platinum 15-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here

    Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going 6½ furlongs. The Sep 26 work, 3F in :37.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Sep 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
    RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 8 here: 9 wins, 19 top-3 in 59 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14DED6½f DfsAlw52000n3l5th/10 -2¾L6719-1b LLate interest
    8/29EVD6f DfsAlw41000n1x2nd/7 -2½L759.9-1b LTight hold; rail rally
    8/7EVD-5f TfsAlw41000n1x3rd/6 -4½L745.8-1b LChased; brushed 3/16
  9. 9Allons Betta LeeJ. Melancon · A. KlanferMelancon · KlanferA74 73 72►≡@trip 745-1Fair 10-110%► Steady74 73 72 ≡@trip 74A

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 72–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 73 72

    Jockey Jansen Melancon 33% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Alan Klanfer 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Madoria 5-2, R4: Whiskey And Easy 8-1, R6: Macho Beanie 10-1, R8: Copy This 20-1 · Trainer R6: Letmikefigureitout 5-2
    180D+ LAYOFF

    Returns from a 328-day break, the biggest in the field. New trainer: Jason Faul had it last time, Alan Klanfer now.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 24d ago
    RECORD Jansen Melancon from post 9 here: 1 win, 15 top-3 in 58 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    12/6DED5f DfsOC50000n2l2nd/8 -3L741.8-1LLate bid; clear second
    11/21FG6f DfsDLFrgsnMmB100k4th/9 -3L7351-1LSwift; 5w; mild rally
    9/23LAD6f DOC 50k n1x3rd/6 -3½L727.3-1LTracked; late try
  10. 10Miss Super MoT. Thornton · W. CalhounThornton · CalhounB67 71 65►≡@trip 758-1Fair 12-17%► Steady67 71 65 ≡@trip 75B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–71 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 71 65

    Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 13-for-54 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 29 · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R5: Imperial Cruiser 8-1, R6: Good And Stout 7-2, R7: Max Is G Money 8-1, R8: Copper Key 8-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: What's Love 5-1, R5: Imperial Cruiser 8-1
    180D+ LAYOFFWON LAST

    Winner of a 7-horse maiden special weight race at FG last time. 239 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 10d back
    RECORD T G Thornton from post 10 here: 9 wins, 16 top-3 in 43 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    3/5FG6f DfsMdSpWtWon/7671.1-1LStp slw;tip 3w;best
    1/17FG6f DfsMdSpWt2nd/8 -2¼L711.7-1LFrac; hop; rallied6w
    12/20FG6f DfsMdSpWt2nd/7 -1L652.7-1LIns bid; needed more
  11. 11Lee CircleD. Cardoso · M. HibdonCardoso · HibdonA76 66 73▲+6@trip 764-1Fair 6-114%▲ Up +6 · career best76 66 73@trip 76A2

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 66 73

    Jockey David Cardoso 37% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Mark N Hibdon 35% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
    Also today · Trainer R1: North Lake Kate 9-2, R4: West Island 4-1

    Mark N Hibdon takes over the training from Anthony Arey. A 76 top number against a 77 par, so it fits the level.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 133 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17DED5f DfsClm20000n3lc2nd/7 by hd765.7-1b LNo match; held place
    9/19LAD5f TfsAlw28000n1x3rd/6 -3½L6610-1b LMild rally 3w;clr rest
    9/5EVD5½f DfsAlw42000n3l4th/8 -2L7312-1b LOff rail 1/4pl;kept on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART5 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 2

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $44,000 purse

Field
11 runners
Purse
$44,000
Post
6:08 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#1 · 13%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 56.69

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #1 What's Love (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 53 · 61 · 75. Backup is #11 Lee Circle at 4-1. Use #2 Mika Ella Pika in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #2 MIKA ELLA PIKA (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
  • #2 MIKA ELLA PIKA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.1% to their 17.1%).
  • #11 LEE CIRCLE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.7% to their 13.6%).
  • #7 TENSAS LU LU — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.1% to their 12.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 MY OTHER HALF (20-1) — our fair 3.8% is above the morning line's 3.2%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Boohaki; pressure from #6 My Other Half, #4 Basile; and works against #4 Basile, #5 Boohaki, #6 My Other Half.

Lead
5Boohaki926My Other Half904Basile87
Press
1What's Love922Mika Ella Pika9011Lee Circle877Tensas Lu Lu863Wickedly Royal83
Stalk
9Allons Betta Lee8810Miss Super Mo888Pot's Paycheck80
Close
none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
What's Love
92
5
Boohaki
92
2
Mika Ella Pika
90
6
My Other Half
90
9
Allons Betta Lee
88
10
Miss Super Mo
88
4
Basile
87
11
Lee Circle
87
7
Tensas Lu Lu
86
3
Wickedly Royal
83
8
Pot's Paycheck
80

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

2
Mika Ella Pika
14
8
Pot's Paycheck
13
1
What's Love
12
5
Boohaki
12
7
Tensas Lu Lu
12
10
Miss Super Mo
12
11
Lee Circle
11
4
Basile
10
6
My Other Half
9
9
Allons Betta Lee
9
3
Wickedly Royal
0
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