★ Distance horse: #8 Ray Mefasolateedoe (20-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 74 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.
1Truvy's T Rex▼▼C. Hernandez · A. AreyHernandez · AreyB49 60 61▼▼-11@trip 599-2Fair 10-110%
▼▼ Big drop -1149 60 61@trip 59B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 73▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 60 61
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 73▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)Jockey Colby J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Anthony Arey 22% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: What's Love 5-1, R5: Syntagma 4-1, R8: Romantic Rumor 8-1, R9: Captain Junuh 2-1Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper. A 61 is the high figure lately, short of the 73 par.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 27d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/22 LAD 6f D sMdSpWt 4th/6 -8L 49 10-1 b L Dwelt brk;5-4w turn 7/21 LAD 6f D sMd10000c 2nd/6 -1½L 60 1.4-1 L Off slw;2-w 1/4;rally 6/9 LAD 6f D sMd10000 2nd/6 -1L 61 3.6-1 L Lost path st;4w;chased 2Dirty DealJ. Rodriguez · I. GonzalezRodriguez · GonzalezA58 70 55▼-5@trip 644-1Fair 8-111%
▼ Down -558 70 55@trip 64ACard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 70 55
Jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez 34% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Isai V Gonzalez 31% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R4: Saint Peter's Bay 5-1, R5: Go Easy 12-1, R7: Yockey's Drivethru 20-1 · Trainer R4: Saint Peter's Bay 5-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF3/5 board hereTops the field on speed figures, a 70 against 69 for the next best. Beaten 4 lengths for 4th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at EVD.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped; squeezed start), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 11 (3F in :36.40), 2 works in 30dRECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts hereRECORD Jose Luis Rodriguez from post 2 here: 14 wins, 45 top-3 in 99 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/20 EVD 6f D sMd10000 4th/8 -4L 58 2.6-1 b L Bumped; squeezed start 7/23 EVD 6f D sMd10000 3rd/12 70 13-1 b L Caught final strides 6/18 EVD 6f D sMd10000 6th/12 -2½L 55 4.1-1 b L Sttld bk;adv;no threat 3Sailor Mike▼J. Inirio · R. BrunoInirio · BrunoC52 49 54▲+520-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +552 49 54C▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 52 49 54
▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 7360D LAYOFFMoves up from maiden claiming $5,000 to maiden claiming $10,000. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Mar 10; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 EVD 7f D sMd5000 7th/12 -3¾L 52 55-1 b L Middle of pack; evenly 7/4 EVD 1m D sMd5000 7th/10 -8L 49 12-1 b L Clear lead;gave way1/4 5/30 EVD 7f D sMd5000 DNF — — b L Head turn; non starter 4Guitar Man▼K. Roman · D. FogartyRoman · FogartyA65 51 57▲▲+14@trip 575-2Fair 9-218%
▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best65 51 57@trip 57A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 732Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 57 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 51 57
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-46 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Desmond Fogarty 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetLast race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days agoRECORD Kevin Roman from post 4 here: 6 wins, 23 top-3 in 71 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 LAD 1m T sMdSpWt 3rd/7 -2½L 65 24-1 L Rail rally 3rd 9/14 LAD 7½f T sMdSpWt 6th/7 -6L 51 19-1 b L 3w trip;little for str 8/11 LAD 7½f T sMdSpWt 5th/8 -2½L 57 39-1 b L Btw 1/2;alter out 1/8 5Electric Man▼I. Castillo · K. ThompsonCastillo · ThompsonC44 62 29►20-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady44 62 29C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 733Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 44 62 29
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Kevin Thompson 25% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, this race: Making Noise 8-1, R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-1 +3 moreNew trainer: Shane Wilson had it last time, Kevin Thompson now. 3rd last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 6.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Early bothr; shuffld3/8), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 65d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 LAD 6f D MCL 10kc 3rd/6 -10L 44 2.6-1 L Early bothr;shuffld3/8 9/8 LAD 5f T sMd10000 2nd/8 by hd 62 6.9-1 L Duel;ran on; 2nd best 7/28 LAD 5f T sMdSpWt 7th/7 -17L 29 10-1 L Lagged; no threat 6Minimus MaximusK. Arana · R. WardArana · WardA56 62 67▼▼-10@trip 577-2Fair 7-112%
▼▼ Big drop -1056 62 67@trip 57ACard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 62 67
Jockey Kelvin Arana 24% career 1-for-31 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Ronnie Ward 36% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)Also today · Jockey R1: Saucy Diem 20-1, R8: Passion Strike 5-1 · Trainer R2: Pot's Paycheck 10-1, R8: My Hintof Platinum 15-10/5 board hereTrending the wrong way on speed, 67 to 62 to 56. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 13d agoRECORD Not on the board in 5 starts hereRECORD Kelvin Arana from post 6 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 47 rides · 5% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 EVD 1m T MCL 10k 7th/10 -5L 56 5.0-1 L Settled; 3w; bid;empty 8/20 EVD 6f D sMd10000 2nd/8 -2½L 62 0.6-1 L Bumped start; no match 7/23 EVD 6f D sMd10000 4th/12 -½L 67 0.8-1 L Failed to sustain bid 7He's Therealdeal▼J. Ramirez Jr. · C. CelestineRamirez Jr. · CelestineC60 47 38▲▲+16@trip 4915-1Fair 30-14%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best60 47 38@trip 49C▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 49 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 47 38
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Julio Jr Ramirez 33% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Charles R Celestine 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFF0/3 board here0 for 5 at today's distance. Figures are climbing: 38, 47, 60 over its last three.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 13 (4F in :50.00), 1 work in 30dRECORD Not on the board in 3 starts hereRECORD Julio Jr Ramirez from post 7 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 20 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/15 EVD 5½f D MCL 12k 3rd/9 -5L 60 101-1 L Steady effort; up show 7/3 EVD 6½f D MCL 10k 8th/10 -6½L 47 90-1 L Failed to menace 5/16 EVD 6½f D sMd10000 11th/12 -5½L 38 119-1 L Svd gnd;tired 8Ray Mefasolateedoe★LST. Pompell · B. ToupsPompell · ToupsC39 49 44►↕@trip 7420-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady39 49 44 ↕@trip 74C★ Best at the trip 74LSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 27–49 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 39 49 44
★ Best at the trip 74LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 29 · Trainer Brent Toups 17% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Boohaki 8-1, R6: Saint Gabriel 8-1, R8: Last Two Dollars 12-1, R9: Lick Skillet 20-160D LAYOFFJky 16/80 from post 8Maiden through 11 starts. Off 85 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 10d agoRECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts hereRECORD T L Pompell from post 8 here: 16 wins, 43 top-3 in 80 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/6 EVD 6½f D sMd20000 9th/10 -9L 39 24-1 b L Speed; pressed; tired 6/20 EVD 5f D sMdSpWt 8th/9 -7L 49 55-1 b L Broke in; lacked a bid 5/9 EVD 6f D sMdSpWt 8th/9 -8L 44 53-1 b L Broke out; thru early 9Money Drop▼C. Del · D. NoelDel · NoelC51 52 45►@trip 5812-1Fair 6-113%
► Steady51 52 45@trip 58C▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 731Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 58 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 52 45
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Cid Erick Del 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Dane Noel 24% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)60D LAYOFF2/4 board hereFreshened 98 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. A longer trip: -5 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d backRECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/24 EVD -5f T MCL 20k 9th/9 -7L 51 10-1 b L Svd grnd;no menace 6/24 LAD 1 1/16 D sMdSpWt 5th/7 -5L 52 23-1 b L Chased; little left 1/29 DED 6½f D sMd20000 7th/8 -9½L 45 17-1 b L Off pace; gave way 10Catalina Classic▼D. Magnon · J. FuselierMagnon · FuselierB57 6210-1Fair 12-18%
—57 62B▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 57 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Devin H Magnon 24% career ★ 4-for-20 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jonah Fuselier 21% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFFClass relief: maiden claiming $20,000 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today. Best recent figure is 62, well under the 73 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 17 days agoRECORD Devin H Magnon from post 10 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 18 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/28 EVD 6f D sMd20000 7th/9 -4L 57 24-1 L Fwd early;ins trn;flat 8/7 EVD 5½f D sMdSpWt 5th/6 -7½L 62 19-1 L Rail trip; empty 11Making Noise▼I. Castillo · S. BreauxCastillo · BreauxB568-1Fair 15-16%
—56B▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Samuel Breaux 36% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)Also today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, this race: Electric Man 20-1, R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Saucy Diem 20-1, R1: Little Miss Jess 8-160D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS3rd of 13 at 3F on Aug 22, in :37.00. Finished 8th in a 9-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at EVD, beaten 3½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 9d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/28 EVD 6f D sMd20000 8th/9 -3½L 56 13-1 b L Btw turn;swng 4w uppr 12One Grand Slam▼A. Castillo · A. ShamsieCastillo · ShamsieC50 60 48▼-3@trip 6015-1Fair 30-14%
▼ Down -350 60 48@trip 60C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 60 48
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 0-for-27 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Austin Shamsie 13% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet60D LAYOFFJky 0/15 from post 12Changes barns, from Randy Shamsie to Austin Shamsie. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 60 against a 73 par.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days agoRECORD Alexander Castillo has never won from post 12 here (0 top-3 in 15 rides) · 5% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/26 LAD 6½f D sMd5000 4th/7 -3½L 50 3.9-1 b L Stlkd;nomatch;yld'd 8/4 LAD 6½f D sMd5000 2nd/6 -½L 60 4.1-1 b L Bit closer 3w;2nd best 7/22 LAD 5½f D sMd5000 5th/8 -3½L 48 5.0-1 b L Ins upper;needed more
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
DELTA DOWNS · RACE 3
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $10,000
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #9 Money Drop (a closer, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 51 · 52 · 45. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #4 Guitar Man at 5-2. Use #5 Electric Man in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 GUITAR MAN (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #4 GUITAR MAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 19.9%).
- #6 MINIMUS MAXIMUS — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.1% to their 15.5%).
- #2 DIRTY DEAL — our #8 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 13.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 MONEY DROP (12-1) — our fair 7.4% is above the morning line's 5.4%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Ray Mefasolateedoe; pressure from #5 Electric Man, #6 Minimus Maximus; the shape helps #9 Money Drop; and works against #5 Electric Man, #6 Minimus Maximus, #8 Ray Mefasolateedoe.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA($1 MIN.)/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 3-4)
($1 MIN.)/PICK 3(RACES 3-5)
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