R3 Delta Downs · Maiden Claiming $10,000

6:36 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $18,000 · 12 runners6:36 PM · 6½f Dirt · 12 runners

Upcoming $18K · Maiden Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #8 Ray Mefasolateedoe (20-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 74 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Truvy's T Rex▼▼C. Hernandez · A. AreyHernandez · AreyB49 60 61▼▼-11@trip 599-2Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -1149 60 61@trip 59B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 73▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 60 61

    ▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 73▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)
    Jockey Colby J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-29 on dirt this meet (24%), #1 of 29 · Trainer Anthony Arey 22% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: What's Love 5-1, R5: Syntagma 4-1, R8: Romantic Rumor 8-1, R9: Captain Junuh 2-1

    Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden claiming $10,000 is an easier level on paper. A 61 is the high figure lately, short of the 73 par.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 27d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/22LAD6f DsMdSpWt4th/6 -8L4910-1b LDwelt brk;5-4w turn
    7/21LAD6f DsMd10000c2nd/6 -1½L601.4-1LOff slw;2-w 1/4;rally
    6/9LAD6f DsMd100002nd/6 -1L613.6-1LLost path st;4w;chased
  2. 2Dirty DealJ. Rodriguez · I. GonzalezRodriguez · GonzalezA58 70 55▼-5@trip 644-1Fair 8-111%▼ Down -558 70 55@trip 64A

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 70 55

    Jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez 34% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Isai V Gonzalez 31% career ★ 8-for-39 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R4: Saint Peter's Bay 5-1, R5: Go Easy 12-1, R7: Yockey's Drivethru 20-1 · Trainer R4: Saint Peter's Bay 5-1
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF3/5 board here

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 70 against 69 for the next best. Beaten 4 lengths for 4th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at EVD.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped; squeezed start), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 11 (3F in :36.40), 2 works in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here
    RECORD Jose Luis Rodriguez from post 2 here: 14 wins, 45 top-3 in 99 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/20EVD6f DsMd100004th/8 -4L582.6-1b LBumped; squeezed start
    7/23EVD6f DsMd100003rd/127013-1b LCaught final strides
    6/18EVD6f DsMd100006th/12 -2½L554.1-1b LSttld bk;adv;no threat
  3. 3Sailor Mike▼J. Inirio · R. BrunoInirio · BrunoC52 49 54▲+520-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +552 49 54C▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 73

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 52 49 54

    ▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 73
    Jockey Junior Inirio 24% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Roland L Bruno 13% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Liberty Simone 5-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Moves up from maiden claiming $5,000 to maiden claiming $10,000. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Mar 10; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/29EVD7f DsMd50007th/12 -3¾L5255-1b LMiddle of pack; evenly
    7/4EVD1m DsMd50007th/10 -8L4912-1b LClear lead;gave way1/4
    5/30EVD7f DsMd5000DNF——b LHead turn; non starter
  4. 4Guitar Man▼K. Roman · D. FogartyRoman · FogartyA65 51 57▲▲+14@trip 575-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best65 51 57@trip 57A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 732

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 57 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 51 57

    ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 73
    Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-46 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Desmond Fogarty 19% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Luv To Win 2-1, R8: Louisiana Sis 20-1, R9: Film At Eleven 10-1

    Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days ago
    RECORD Kevin Roman from post 4 here: 6 wins, 23 top-3 in 71 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30LAD1m TsMdSpWt3rd/7 -2½L6524-1LRail rally 3rd
    9/14LAD7½f TsMdSpWt6th/7 -6L5119-1b L3w trip;little for str
    8/11LAD7½f TsMdSpWt5th/8 -2½L5739-1b LBtw 1/2;alter out 1/8
  5. 5Electric Man▼I. Castillo · K. ThompsonCastillo · ThompsonC44 62 29►20-1Fair 15-16%► Steady44 62 29C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 733

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 44 62 29

    ▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73
    Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Kevin Thompson 25% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, this race: Making Noise 8-1, R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-1 +3 more

    New trainer: Shane Wilson had it last time, Kevin Thompson now. 3rd last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 6.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Early bothr; shuffld3/8), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 65d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30LAD6f DMCL 10kc3rd/6 -10L442.6-1LEarly bothr;shuffld3/8
    9/8LAD5f TsMd100002nd/8 by hd626.9-1LDuel;ran on; 2nd best
    7/28LAD5f TsMdSpWt7th/7 -17L2910-1LLagged; no threat
  6. 6Minimus MaximusK. Arana · R. WardArana · WardA56 62 67▼▼-10@trip 577-2Fair 7-112%▼▼ Big drop -1056 62 67@trip 57A

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 62 67

    Jockey Kelvin Arana 24% career 1-for-31 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Ronnie Ward 36% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Saucy Diem 20-1, R8: Passion Strike 5-1 · Trainer R2: Pot's Paycheck 10-1, R8: My Hintof Platinum 15-1
    0/5 board here

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 67 to 62 to 56. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago
    RECORD Not on the board in 5 starts here
    RECORD Kelvin Arana from post 6 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 47 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7EVD1m TMCL 10k7th/10 -5L565.0-1LSettled; 3w; bid;empty
    8/20EVD6f DsMd100002nd/8 -2½L620.6-1LBumped start; no match
    7/23EVD6f DsMd100004th/12 -½L670.8-1LFailed to sustain bid
  7. 7He's Therealdeal▼J. Ramirez Jr. · C. CelestineRamirez Jr. · CelestineC60 47 38▲▲+16@trip 4915-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best60 47 38@trip 49C▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 73

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 49 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 47 38

    ▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 73
    Jockey Julio Jr Ramirez 33% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Charles R Celestine 14% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    60D LAYOFF0/3 board here

    0 for 5 at today's distance. Figures are climbing: 38, 47, 60 over its last three.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 13 (4F in :50.00), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
    RECORD Julio Jr Ramirez from post 7 here: 4 wins, 7 top-3 in 20 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/15EVD5½f DMCL 12k3rd/9 -5L60101-1LSteady effort; up show
    7/3EVD6½f DMCL 10k8th/10 -6½L4790-1LFailed to menace
    5/16EVD6½f DsMd1000011th/12 -5½L38119-1LSvd gnd;tired
  8. 8Ray Mefasolateedoe★LST. Pompell · B. ToupsPompell · ToupsC39 49 44►↕@trip 7420-1Fair 15-16%► Steady39 49 44 ↕@trip 74C★ Best at the trip 74LS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 27–49 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 39 49 44

    ★ Best at the trip 74LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 3%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 29 · Trainer Brent Toups 17% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Boohaki 8-1, R6: Saint Gabriel 8-1, R8: Last Two Dollars 12-1, R9: Lick Skillet 20-1
    60D LAYOFFJky 16/80 from post 8

    Maiden through 11 starts. Off 85 days since the last start.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here
    RECORD T L Pompell from post 8 here: 16 wins, 43 top-3 in 80 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/6EVD6½f DsMd200009th/10 -9L3924-1b LSpeed; pressed; tired
    6/20EVD5f DsMdSpWt8th/9 -7L4955-1b LBroke in; lacked a bid
    5/9EVD6f DsMdSpWt8th/9 -8L4453-1b LBroke out; thru early
  9. 9Money Drop▼C. Del · D. NoelDel · NoelC51 52 45►@trip 5812-1Fair 6-113%► Steady51 52 45@trip 58C▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 731

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 58 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 52 45

    ▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 73
    Jockey Cid Erick Del 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Dane Noel 24% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Flora Bound 12-1, R2: My Other Half 20-1, R4: Blue Cheese 20-1
    60D LAYOFF2/4 board here

    Freshened 98 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. A longer trip: -5 furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today.

    PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/24EVD-5f TMCL 20k9th/9 -7L5110-1b LSvd grnd;no menace
    6/24LAD1 1/16 DsMdSpWt5th/7 -5L5223-1b LChased; little left
    1/29DED6½f DsMd200007th/8 -9½L4517-1b LOff pace; gave way
  10. 10Catalina Classic▼D. Magnon · J. FuselierMagnon · FuselierB57 6210-1Fair 12-18%—57 62B▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 57 62

    ▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 73
    Jockey Devin H Magnon 24% career ★ 4-for-20 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Jonah Fuselier 21% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R6: Letmikefigureitout 5-2
    60D LAYOFF

    Class relief: maiden claiming $20,000 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today. Best recent figure is 62, well under the 73 par for this level.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 17 days ago
    RECORD Devin H Magnon from post 10 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 18 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/28EVD6f DsMd200007th/9 -4L5724-1LFwd early;ins trn;flat
    8/7EVD5½f DsMdSpWt5th/6 -7½L6219-1LRail trip; empty
  11. 11Making Noise▼I. Castillo · S. BreauxCastillo · BreauxB568-1Fair 15-16%—56B▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 73

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 56

    ▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 73
    Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Samuel Breaux 36% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, this race: Electric Man 20-1, R5: Don'tstopthaspirit 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Saucy Diem 20-1, R1: Little Miss Jess 8-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    3rd of 13 at 3F on Aug 22, in :37.00. Finished 8th in a 9-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at EVD, beaten 3½ lengths.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/28EVD6f DsMd200008th/9 -3½L5613-1b LBtw turn;swng 4w uppr
  12. 12One Grand Slam▼A. Castillo · A. ShamsieCastillo · ShamsieC50 60 48▼-3@trip 6015-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -350 60 48@trip 60C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 50 60 48

    ▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 73
    Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 0-for-27 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Austin Shamsie 13% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R4: Huey Duey 15-1, R5: Eligio 10-1, R7: Essay 6-1, R9: Global Heat Wave 15-1
    60D LAYOFFJky 0/15 from post 12

    Changes barns, from Randy Shamsie to Austin Shamsie. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 60 against a 73 par.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days ago
    RECORD Alexander Castillo has never won from post 12 here (0 top-3 in 15 rides) · 5% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/26LAD6½f DsMd50004th/7 -3½L503.9-1b LStlkd;nomatch;yld'd
    8/4LAD6½f DsMd50002nd/6 -½L604.1-1b LBit closer 3w;2nd best
    7/22LAD5½f DsMd50005th/8 -3½L485.0-1b LIns upper;needed more

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field
12 runners
Purse
$18,000
Post
6:36 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#9 · 13%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Money Drop (a closer, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 51 · 52 · 45. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #4 Guitar Man at 5-2. Use #5 Electric Man in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #4 GUITAR MAN (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #4 GUITAR MAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 19.9%).
  • #6 MINIMUS MAXIMUS — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.1% to their 15.5%).
  • #2 DIRTY DEAL — our #8 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 13.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 MONEY DROP (12-1) — our fair 7.4% is above the morning line's 5.4%; supported by: 5-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Ray Mefasolateedoe; pressure from #5 Electric Man, #6 Minimus Maximus; the shape helps #9 Money Drop; and works against #5 Electric Man, #6 Minimus Maximus, #8 Ray Mefasolateedoe.

Lead
8Ray Mefasolateedoe915Electric Man886Minimus Maximus76
Press
12One Grand Slam907He's Therealdeal843Sailor Mike781Truvy's T Rex772Dirty Deal76
Stalk
4Guitar Man66
Close
9Money Drop73
No style yet
10Catalina Classic8611Making Noise83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

8
Ray Mefasolateedoe
91
12
One Grand Slam
90
5
Electric Man
88
7
He's Therealdeal
84
3
Sailor Mike
78
1
Truvy's T Rex
77
2
Dirty Deal
76
6
Minimus Maximus
76
4
Guitar Man
66

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

9
Money Drop
9
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