R7 Delta Downs · Claiming $10,000

8:28 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $24,000 · 9 runners8:28 PM · 6½f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $24K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Purple HeartE. Nieves · R. UrbinaNieves · UrbinaC77 76 71►@trip 7615-1Fair 8-110%► Steady77 76 71@trip 76C1

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #1 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 76 71

    Jockey Emanuel Nieves 32% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Ruperto R Urbina 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R8: Pink Angel 20-1, R9: Downtown Motown 8-1 · Trainer R4: Izzy's Baby Boy 7-2, this race: Beach Blanket 10-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    New trainer: Patti Turner had it last time, Ruperto R Urbina now. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 15 (4F in :48.00), 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Emanuel Nieves from post 1 here: 2 wins, 5 top-3 in 17 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/15LAD7½f TOC 15k n1x3rd/9 -1½L7716-1LStd'd 5/16;thru traffc
    8/22EVD6f DOC 15k n3l7th/8 -4L7612-1LChased; flattened out
    8/3LAD1 1/16 DOC 15k b5th/6 -4½L719.8-1LPressd;bid btwn;fade
  2. 2CobochA. Birzer · T. DixonBirzer · DixonA66 87 89▼▼-17↕7-2Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1766 87 89 ↕A

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–89 · Last 3 figs 66 87 89

    Jockey A E Birzer 32% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Tim Dixon 28% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Little Miss Jess 8-1, R2: Basile 12-1, R4: Stroller Boy 8-1, R5: Saint Robert's Row 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Downtown Motown 8-1
    Jky 9/65 from post 2

    Tops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 86 for the next best. Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 96 days ago
    RECORD A E Birzer from post 2 here: 9 wins, 29 top-3 in 65 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17DED1m DOC 10k9th/9 -8¾L667.5-1b LOutrun
    8/25LAD1 1/16 DClm 7k bcWon/5870.2-1b LStmbld;2w-ins;drw clr
    8/5LAD7f DClm 7k b2nd/5 by hd890.5-1b LVied;met outer;duel;gm
  3. 3Max Is G MoneyT. Thornton · A. AlbertoThornton · AlbertoC65 73 85▼▼-13@trip 658-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1365 73 85@trip 65C

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 73 85

    Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 13-for-54 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Antonio Alberto 24% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Super Mo 8-1, R5: Imperial Cruiser 8-1, R6: Good And Stout 7-2, R8: Copper Key 8-1 +1 more
    CLASS UP

    Class relief: optional claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today. Last out was 8th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at DED.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 1)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 29d back)
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here
    RECORD T G Thornton from post 3 here: 23 wins, 47 top-3 in 105 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17DED6½f DOC 30k b8th/9 -11L6525-1b LNear middle; faded
    9/4EVD1m TOC 15k n1xc9th/10 -6L7314-1b LChallenged; gave way
    8/15EVD7f DOC 20k b3rd/8 -1L859.3-1b LLoomed a threat; hung
  4. 4Runnin Munnin▲I. Castillo · J. WongCastillo · WongA84 83 77▲+3≡2-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +3 · career best84 83 77 ≡A▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 77–84 · Last 3 figs 84 83 77

    ▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82
    Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-50 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jonathan Wong 47% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mediator 15-1, R2: Wickedly Royal 15-1, R3: Electric Man 20-1, R3: Making Noise 8-1 +3 more
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST2/3 board here

    123 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Winner of a 5-horse optional claiming race at LAD last time.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Drew off; mild urging.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 21 (4F in :48.20), 3 works in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/29LAD6f DOC 15k n3lWon/5840.1-1LDrew off; mild urging
    5/16LAD6f DOC 15k n1x2nd/6 -3L831.2-1LChsd;mild rally;at bay
    3/1FG5½f DOC 10k c3rd/8 -4L776.4-1LSetld; 6w; fin well
  5. 5Solidify★C. Perez · J. CanoPerez · CanoB79 69 86►@trip 8512-1Fair 10-19%► Steady79 69 86@trip 85B★ Best at the trip 853

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 69 86

    ★ Best at the trip 85
    Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-51 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Juan Munoz Cano 31% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: The Get Out 4-1, R4: Order Up 20-1, R5: Billy's Got Issues 15-1 · Trainer R4: Order Up 20-1, R5: After Party 15-1
    60D LAYOFFCLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK6/6 board here

    Freshened 112 days. Watch how its recent works look. Was running in optional claiming; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

    EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 9; 2 works in 30d
    RECORD On the board in all 6 starts here (4 wins)
    RECORD Carlos Perez from post 5 here: 4 wins, 20 top-3 in 64 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/10EVD6f DOC 20k n1x7th/8 -4¼L7939-1b LPassed tiring rival
    6/15LAD6f DOC 10k5th/7 -4L691.9-1b LOutrun early; belated
    3/22FG5½f DOC 10k4th/6 -2¾L862.4-1b LOff slow;4w late rally
  6. 6Beach Blanket▼E. Barrera · R. UrbinaBarrera · UrbinaB76 78 69▲+3≡10-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +376 78 69 ≡B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises2

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 69–78 · Last 3 figs 76 78 69

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-51 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Ruperto R Urbina 0-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Pot's Paycheck 10-1, R4: Flotation Station 8-1, R5: After Party 15-1, R6: Misdeal 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Izzy's Baby Boy 7-2, this race: Purple Heart 15-1

    Switches from turf to dirt. Ruperto R Urbina takes over the training from Patti Turner.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 26 (5F in 1:01.00), 2 works in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 6 here: 11 wins, 31 top-3 in 77 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30LAD1m TsAlw28000n1x2nd/8 -4¾L764.2-1b L3w turns;late rally2nd
    9/16LAD7½f TsAlw28000n1x2nd/9 -6L788.0-1b LDropped in upper;rally
    8/26LAD7f DsAlw27000n1x4th/7 -2½L695.3-1b LRail bid; missed show
  7. 7Yockey's Drivethru▼LSJ. Rodriguez · C. GoveaRodriguez · GoveaC72 59 83►↕@trip 8020-1Fair 15-16%► Steady72 59 83 ↕@trip 80C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–83 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 59 83

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez 34% career 5-for-30 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Cesar Govea 24% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Dirty Deal 4-1, R4: Saint Peter's Bay 5-1, R5: Go Easy 12-1 · Trainer R5: More Than Cute 8-1

    3rd of 33 at 5F on Nov 15, in 1:01.20. Drops from $15,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 34d back)
    RECORD Jose Luis Rodriguez from post 7 here: 7 wins, 31 top-3 in 103 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/17DED7f DClm 15k b6th/10 -6L7238-1b LNear middle; weakened
    9/4EVD1m TOC 15k n1x10th/10 -20L5967-1b LSteadied into 1st turn
    8/21EVD6f DClm 7k bc2nd/6 -1½L831.3-1b LSteady bid; not enough
  8. 8EssayA. Castillo · G. BryantCastillo · BryantB72 83 79▼-4@trip 836-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -472 83 79@trip 83B

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 83 79

    Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 0-for-27 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer George Bryant 30% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: One Grand Slam 15-1, R4: Huey Duey 15-1, R5: Eligio 10-1, R9: Global Heat Wave 15-1 · Trainer R5: Eligio 10-1
    0/3 board here

    Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Apr 17, in :47.00. 5th last time, 2¾ lengths back, in a field of 10.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Hopped st; mild gain), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 17 (4F in :47.00), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here
    RECORD Alexander Castillo from post 8 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 51 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14DED6½f DOC 8k5th/10 -2¾L729.0-1b LHopped st; mild gain
    9/8LAD6½f DOC 10kWon/6 by hd836.0-1b LTraffc turn;cme out1/8
    7/11LS6½f DsAlw52000nc6th/8 -3½L7926-1b LVied;larger lead;faltr
  9. 9Fiesty FistH. Hernandez · J. GibsonHernandez · GibsonA77 72 78►≡@trip 779-2Fair 7-113%► Steady77 72 78 ≡@trip 77A

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 72–78 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 72 78

    Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-57 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jonas Gibson 36% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R4: Drewmazing 12-1, R5: Beaudreaux 5-1, R6: Behemah Star 12-1, R8: Mo Cantharus 15-1 +1 more
    CLASS DROPWON LAST

    Has won 4 of 8 going today's distance. Won last out in a 5-horse $12,500 claiming race at LAD.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 20 days ago
    RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/16LAD7f DsClm12500bWon/5 by hd773.2-1LRespnded;came out late
    6/29LAD6f DOC 15k n3lc4th/5 -¾L726.0-1LRail trip; weakened
    5/2LAD7f DsOC15000n3l3rd/6 -½L788.5-1LBid5w1/8;willingly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field
9 runners
Purse
$24,000
Post
8:28 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#1 · 10%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Purple Heart (a presser/stalker, M/L 15-1). Recent figures: 77 · 76 · 71. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Beach Blanket at 10-1. Use #5 Solidify in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #4 RUNNIN MUNNIN (2-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
  • #4 RUNNIN MUNNIN — our #4 number, about right at the windows (25.2% to their 26.3%).
  • #2 COBOCH — our #9 number, about right at the windows (15.7% to their 17.5%).
  • #9 FIESTY FIST — our #5 number, about right at the windows (13.8% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 PURPLE HEART (15-1) — our fair 6.4% is above the morning line's 4.9%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Max Is G Money; pressure from #2 Coboch, #8 Essay; the shape helps #1 Purple Heart, #4 Runnin Munnin, #6 Beach Blanket; and works against #2 Coboch, #3 Max Is G Money.

Lead
3Max Is G Money832Coboch76
Press
8Essay809Fiesty Fist74
Stalk
4Runnin Munnin887Yockey's Drivethru821Purple Heart796Beach Blanket70
Close
5Solidify64

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

4
Runnin Munnin
88
3
Max Is G Money
83
7
Yockey's Drivethru
82
8
Essay
80
1
Purple Heart
79
2
Coboch
76
9
Fiesty Fist
74
6
Beach Blanket
70

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

5
Solidify
8
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