★ Distance horse: #8 Alajuela (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 68 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.
1My Leo▼C. Perez · J. RamirezPerez · RamirezB65 62 59▲+3≡10-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +365 62 59 ≡B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 59–66 · Last 3 figs 65 62 59
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-55 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Jose Luis Ramirez 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetCLASS DROPHas moved up each time out, 59 to 62 to 65. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 25d back)RECORD Carlos Perez from post 1 here: 8 wins, 29 top-3 in 71 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 DED 7f D MCL 10k 4th/10 -4L 65 7.7-1 b L Speed; weakened 9/5 EVD 1m D MCL 20k 4th/8 -3¼L 62 7.5-1 b L Bid; squeezed 1/16th 8/14 EVD 7f D MSW 7th/8 -5L 59 71-1 b L Veerd out start;no bid 2Baritone Crier▼M. Alvarez · P. DisonAlvarez · DisonC23 5120-1Fair 50-12%
—23 51C▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 72Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 23 51
▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 72Jockey Misael Alvarez 34% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Phillip Mark Dison 18% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPSwitches from turf to dirt. Last out was 12th, 24 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at EVD.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 14d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/13 EVD 1m T MCL 12k 12th/12 -24L 23 140-1 b L Vied; tired; stopped 3/20 OP 1 1/16 D MCL 25k 6th/7 -22L — 45-1 b L In range 3p; retreated 2/20 DED 5f D MSW 8th/10 -8L 51 103-1 b L Bmp;ins;even effort 3Making Noise▼LSI. Castillo · S. BreauxCastillo · BreauxC568-1Fair 10-110%
—56C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 72LSCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 72LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-56 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Samuel Breaux 36% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)Also today · Jockey R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R3: Battle Star 6-1, R4: Path To Success 9-2, R5: Lady Dreamer 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R2: Hand 15-1, R5: Rosie's Angus 5-160D LAYOFFClass relief: maiden claiming $20,000 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today. Best recent figure is 56, well under the 72 par for this level.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 10d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/28 EVD 6f D sMd20000 8th/9 -3½L 56 13-1 b L Btw turn;swng 4w uppr 4Firstup▼J. Hernandez · E. RamaekersHernandez · RamaekersB66 67 60▲+68-1Fair 10-110%
▲ Up +666 67 60B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Last 3 figs 66 67 60
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72Jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez 38% career 4-for-42 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Eric Ramaekers 29% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R1: Ex Gonna 8-1, R2: Dirty Straight Up 6-1, R3: Rhone Valley 10-1 · Trainer R1: Ex Gonna 8-1CLASS DROPJockey switch: Juan P Vargas last out, Javier Antonio Hernandez today. 3rd last time, 8 lengths back, in a field of 10.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d agoRECORD Javier Antonio Hernandez from post 4 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 22 rides · 9% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 DED 7f D MCL 10k 3rd/10 -8L 66 4.3-1 b L No match for top two 9/5 EVD 1m D MCL 20k 2nd/8 -3L 67 14-1 b L Inside; bore out; bid 8/10 LAD 1m T MCL 10k 2nd/7 -2L 60 5.4-1 b L Gain 2-3w;won 2nd 5Tito▼C. Del · C. GoveaDel · GoveaC40 52 24►↕15-1Fair 50-12%
► Steady40 52 24 ↕C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 72Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 24–52 · Last 3 figs 40 52 24
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 72Jockey Cid Erick Del 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cesar Govea 24% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%)Also today · Jockey R2: Flashy Boy 12-1, R6: Agami 20-1, R7: The Donegal Clan 12-1 · Trainer R4: Bigfoot Sighting 8-1, R7: Gavel 15-1Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 52 against a 72 par. Maiden through 17 starts.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 LAD 6f D MCL 10k 4th/6 -9½L 40 29-1 b L Lagged;mildly late 9/14 LAD 7½f T MCL 10k 5th/6 -7L 52 32-1 b L Brk out; rank early 7/20 LAD 7f D MCL 10k 5th/6 -12L 24 52-1 b L Lagged;4w;no threat 6Seize the Port▼E. Ruiz · S. ZenonRuiz · ZenonC31 23 46▼-6↕20-1Fair 50-12%
▼ Down -631 23 46 ↕C▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 72Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 23–46 · Last 3 figs 31 23 46
▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 72Jockey Efigenio Garcia Ruiz 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Shelton Zenon 14% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)60D LAYOFFCLASS DROPChanges barns, from L J Cuccia to Shelton Zenon. A step up in company: maiden claiming $5,000 before, maiden claiming $10,000 today.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 EVD 7f D sMd5000 11th/12 -10L 31 140-1 L Settled; no response 5/23 EVD 1m D MCL 20k 9th/9 -22L 23 70-1 L Off bit slow;no factor 4/25 EVD 1m D sMd20000 6th/9 -5¾L 46 28-1 L 2-w; lacked rally 7Yankee PrinceH. Hernandez · R. WardHernandez · WardA68 61 64▲+7@trip 647-2Fair 5-117%
▲ Up +7 · career best68 61 64@trip 64A2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 64 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 61 64
Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-61 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Ronnie Ward 36% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R4: Native Star 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Mingling Mo 9-260D LAYOFFCLASS DROP4/6 board hereCuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 14d agoRECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/13 EVD 1m T MCL 12k 3rd/12 -1L 68 18-1 b L Challenged; outclosed 6/19 EVD 1m D sMd20000 4th/12 -1L 61 6.3-1 b L Bid; vied; empty late 5/21 EVD 1m D sMdSpWt 6th/9 -6L 64 32-1 b L Trk2-3w;no late respns 8Alajuela★C. Lozada · J. LaraLozada · LaraA69 68 59▲+7@trip 686-1Fair 7-112%
▲ Up +7 · career best69 68 59@trip 68A★ Best at the trip 68Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 68 59
★ Best at the trip 68Jockey Carlos Lozada 28% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Jorge Lara 29% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)Figures are climbing: 59, 68, 69 over its last three. Still looking for the first win after 8 starts.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 39 days agoRECORD Carlos Lozada from post 8 here: 5 wins, 18 top-3 in 54 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 DED 7f D MCL 10k 2nd/10 -4L 69 6.8-1 b L No match; clear 2nd 9/29 LAD 6½f D sMd10000 2nd/6 68 1.4-1 b L Pressd 3w;led;stubborn 8/10 LAD 1m T MCL 10k 3rd/7 -1½L 59 2.0-1 b L Pace;met bid;yielded 9Life Run▼T. Pompell · K. BourgeoisPompell · BourgeoisB63 61 32▲▲+165-1Fair 6-114%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best63 61 32B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 723Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 63 61 32
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 9-for-43 on dirt this meet (21%), #2 of 30 · Trainer Keith Bourgeois 33% career ★ 4-for-20 on dirt this meet (20%)Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Beaten 2 lengths for 2nd in a 10-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at EVD.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 18d ago)RECORD T L Pompell from post 9 here: 7 wins, 19 top-3 in 57 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 EVD 1m T MCL 10k 2nd/10 -2L 63 3.9-1 b L Rallied; 3w; 2nd best 8/13 EVD 1m T MCL 12k 5th/12 -4½L 61 14-1 b L Inside trip; bid;empty 4/10 EVD 7f D MSW 9th/10 -8¾L 32 4.2-1 b L Contention; retreated 10Irish WhiskeyE. Barrera · J. CanoBarrera · CanoA29 77 80▼▼-50↕@trip 655-2Fair 3-124%
▼▼ Big drop -5029 77 80 ↕@trip 65A1Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -50 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 29–80 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 29 77 80
Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-55 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Juan Munoz Cano 31% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%)Also today · Jockey R2: Mingling Mo 9-2, R3: Forever Chapin 5-2, R4: Soul Coaxing 5-2, R6: Uno Pea 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Soul Coaxing 5-2, R6: Uno Pea 12-1, R7: Mr McGregor 8-1, R7: Thunderhawk 10-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFOwns the highest recent figure here at 80. Off 77 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped into turn. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d backRECORD Elio J Barrera from post 10 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 35 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/15 EVD 5½f D MCL 12k 9th/9 -8L 29 0.3-1 L Bumped into turn 4/10 OP 6f D MCL 20kv 2nd/8 by hd 77 1.1-1 L 2-3p;dug in; edged out 2/13 OP 6f D MCL 20kc 3rd/10 by hd 80 1.6-1 L Bump btwn st; bid4p1/4 11Take This City▼J. Edison · A. AreyEdison · AreyC61 59 42▲▲+910-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +961 59 42C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Last 3 figs 61 59 42
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72Jockey Jocelyn Edison 20% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anthony Arey 22% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meetMoves up from maiden claiming $5,000 to maiden claiming $10,000. Worked 4F in :48.00 on Jun 9, 2nd of 11 at the distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 DED 7½f D MCL 5k 5th/10 -9¼L 61 4.9-1 b L Moved up; no factor 9/5 EVD 6f D MCL 5k 6th/10 -4½L 59 36-1 b L Never menaced 7/11 LS 1m D MCL 7k 7th/9 -15L 42 31-1 b L 5w 1st;nothing left
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #8, #10.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
DELTA DOWNS · RACE 9
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $10,000
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #10 Irish Whiskey (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 29 · 77 · 80. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #7 Yankee Prince at 7-2. Use #9 Life Run in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 IRISH WHISKEY (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #10 IRISH WHISKEY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 20.7%).
- #7 YANKEE PRINCE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 16.1%).
- #9 LIFE RUN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 12.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #1 My Leo; pressure from #10 Irish Whiskey, #8 Alajuela.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA($1 MIN.)/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta