R9 Delta Downs · Maiden Claiming $10,000

9:24 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $16,000 · 11 runners9:24 PM · 6½f Dirt · 11 runners

Upcoming $16K · Maiden Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #8 Alajuela (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 68 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1My Leo▼C. Perez · J. RamirezPerez · RamirezB65 62 59▲+3≡10-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +365 62 59 ≡B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 59–66 · Last 3 figs 65 62 59

    ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 72
    Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-55 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Jose Luis Ramirez 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Swamp Queen 2-1, R6: Saved By Grace 6-1, R7: Thunderhawk 10-1
    CLASS DROP

    Has moved up each time out, 59 to 62 to 65. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 25d back)
    RECORD Carlos Perez from post 1 here: 8 wins, 29 top-3 in 71 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14DED7f DMCL 10k4th/10 -4L657.7-1b LSpeed; weakened
    9/5EVD1m DMCL 20k4th/8 -3¼L627.5-1b LBid; squeezed 1/16th
    8/14EVD7f DMSW7th/8 -5L5971-1b LVeerd out start;no bid
  2. 2Baritone Crier▼M. Alvarez · P. DisonAlvarez · DisonC23 5120-1Fair 50-12%—23 51C▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 72

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 23 51

    ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 72
    Jockey Misael Alvarez 34% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Phillip Mark Dison 18% career 0-for-16 on dirt this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Hand 15-1, R4: Mo Hope 10-1
    60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

    Switches from turf to dirt. Last out was 12th, 24 lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at EVD.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 14d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/13EVD1m TMCL 12k12th/12 -24L23140-1b LVied; tired; stopped
    3/20OP1 1/16 DMCL 25k6th/7 -22L—45-1b LIn range 3p; retreated
    2/20DED5f DMSW8th/10 -8L51103-1b LBmp;ins;even effort
  3. 3Making Noise▼LSI. Castillo · S. BreauxCastillo · BreauxC568-1Fair 10-110%—56C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 72LS

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 56

    ▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 72LS

    Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 8%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-56 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Samuel Breaux 36% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R3: Battle Star 6-1, R4: Path To Success 9-2, R5: Lady Dreamer 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R2: Hand 15-1, R5: Rosie's Angus 5-1
    60D LAYOFF

    Class relief: maiden claiming $20,000 last time, maiden claiming $10,000 today. Best recent figure is 56, well under the 72 par for this level.

    EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/28EVD6f DsMd200008th/9 -3½L5613-1b LBtw turn;swng 4w uppr
  4. 4Firstup▼J. Hernandez · E. RamaekersHernandez · RamaekersB66 67 60▲+68-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +666 67 60B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Last 3 figs 66 67 60

    ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 72
    Jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez 38% career 4-for-42 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Eric Ramaekers 29% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Ex Gonna 8-1, R2: Dirty Straight Up 6-1, R3: Rhone Valley 10-1 · Trainer R1: Ex Gonna 8-1
    CLASS DROP

    Jockey switch: Juan P Vargas last out, Javier Antonio Hernandez today. 3rd last time, 8 lengths back, in a field of 10.

    EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d ago
    RECORD Javier Antonio Hernandez from post 4 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 22 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14DED7f DMCL 10k3rd/10 -8L664.3-1b LNo match for top two
    9/5EVD1m DMCL 20k2nd/8 -3L6714-1b LInside; bore out; bid
    8/10LAD1m TMCL 10k2nd/7 -2L605.4-1b LGain 2-3w;won 2nd
  5. 5Tito▼C. Del · C. GoveaDel · GoveaC40 52 24►↕15-1Fair 50-12%► Steady40 52 24 ↕C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 72

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 24–52 · Last 3 figs 40 52 24

    ▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 72
    Jockey Cid Erick Del 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Cesar Govea 24% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Flashy Boy 12-1, R6: Agami 20-1, R7: The Donegal Clan 12-1 · Trainer R4: Bigfoot Sighting 8-1, R7: Gavel 15-1

    Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 52 against a 72 par. Maiden through 17 starts.

    EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 7d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30LAD6f DMCL 10k4th/6 -9½L4029-1b LLagged;mildly late
    9/14LAD7½f TMCL 10k5th/6 -7L5232-1b LBrk out; rank early
    7/20LAD7f DMCL 10k5th/6 -12L2452-1b LLagged;4w;no threat
  6. 6Seize the Port▼E. Ruiz · S. ZenonRuiz · ZenonC31 23 46▼-6↕20-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -631 23 46 ↕C▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 72

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 23–46 · Last 3 figs 31 23 46

    ▼ Best fig 46 is 5+ under today's par 72
    Jockey Efigenio Garcia Ruiz 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Shelton Zenon 14% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
    60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

    Changes barns, from L J Cuccia to Shelton Zenon. A step up in company: maiden claiming $5,000 before, maiden claiming $10,000 today.

    EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/29EVD7f DsMd500011th/12 -10L31140-1LSettled; no response
    5/23EVD1m DMCL 20k9th/9 -22L2370-1LOff bit slow;no factor
    4/25EVD1m DsMd200006th/9 -5¾L4628-1L2-w; lacked rally
  7. 7Yankee PrinceH. Hernandez · R. WardHernandez · WardA68 61 64▲+7@trip 647-2Fair 5-117%▲ Up +7 · career best68 61 64@trip 64A2

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 64 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 61 64

    Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-61 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Ronnie Ward 36% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R4: Native Star 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Mingling Mo 9-2
    60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP4/6 board here

    Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 14d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/13EVD1m TMCL 12k3rd/12 -1L6818-1b LChallenged; outclosed
    6/19EVD1m DsMd200004th/12 -1L616.3-1b LBid; vied; empty late
    5/21EVD1m DsMdSpWt6th/9 -6L6432-1b LTrk2-3w;no late respns
  8. 8Alajuela★C. Lozada · J. LaraLozada · LaraA69 68 59▲+7@trip 686-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +7 · career best69 68 59@trip 68A★ Best at the trip 68

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 68 59

    ★ Best at the trip 68
    Jockey Carlos Lozada 28% career 1-for-26 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Jorge Lara 29% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)
    Also today · Trainer R8: Golfito 5-1

    Figures are climbing: 59, 68, 69 over its last three. Still looking for the first win after 8 starts.

    EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 39 days ago
    RECORD Carlos Lozada from post 8 here: 5 wins, 18 top-3 in 54 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14DED7f DMCL 10k2nd/10 -4L696.8-1b LNo match; clear 2nd
    9/29LAD6½f DsMd100002nd/6681.4-1b LPressd 3w;led;stubborn
    8/10LAD1m TMCL 10k3rd/7 -1½L592.0-1b LPace;met bid;yielded
  9. 9Life Run▼T. Pompell · K. BourgeoisPompell · BourgeoisB63 61 32▲▲+165-1Fair 6-114%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best63 61 32B▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 723

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 63 61 32

    ▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72
    Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 9-for-43 on dirt this meet (21%), #2 of 30 · Trainer Keith Bourgeois 33% career ★ 4-for-20 on dirt this meet (20%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Pericles 15-1, R4: It's A Secret 15-1, R7: Life Is A Banquet 12-1

    Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Beaten 2 lengths for 2nd in a 10-horse maiden claiming $10,000 race at EVD.

    EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 18d ago)
    RECORD T L Pompell from post 9 here: 7 wins, 19 top-3 in 57 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7EVD1m TMCL 10k2nd/10 -2L633.9-1b LRallied; 3w; 2nd best
    8/13EVD1m TMCL 12k5th/12 -4½L6114-1b LInside trip; bid;empty
    4/10EVD7f DMSW9th/10 -8¾L324.2-1b LContention; retreated
  10. 10Irish WhiskeyE. Barrera · J. CanoBarrera · CanoA29 77 80▼▼-50↕@trip 655-2Fair 3-124%▼▼ Big drop -5029 77 80 ↕@trip 65A1

    Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -50 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 29–80 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 29 77 80

    Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-55 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Juan Munoz Cano 31% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Mingling Mo 9-2, R3: Forever Chapin 5-2, R4: Soul Coaxing 5-2, R6: Uno Pea 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Soul Coaxing 5-2, R6: Uno Pea 12-1, R7: Mr McGregor 8-1, R7: Thunderhawk 10-1
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 80. Off 77 days since the last start.

    EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped into turn. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back
    RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 10 here: 4 wins, 12 top-3 in 35 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/15EVD5½f DMCL 12k9th/9 -8L290.3-1LBumped into turn
    4/10OP6f DMCL 20kv2nd/8 by hd771.1-1L2-3p;dug in; edged out
    2/13OP6f DMCL 20kc3rd/10 by hd801.6-1LBump btwn st; bid4p1/4
  11. 11Take This City▼J. Edison · A. AreyEdison · AreyC61 59 42▲▲+910-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +961 59 42C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Last 3 figs 61 59 42

    ▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 72
    Jockey Jocelyn Edison 20% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Anthony Arey 22% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

    Moves up from maiden claiming $5,000 to maiden claiming $10,000. Worked 4F in :48.00 on Jun 9, 2nd of 11 at the distance.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 49 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16DED7½f DMCL 5k5th/10 -9¼L614.9-1b LMoved up; no factor
    9/5EVD6f DMCL 5k6th/10 -4½L5936-1b LNever menaced
    7/11LS1m DMCL 7k7th/9 -15L4231-1b L5w 1st;nothing left

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #8, #10.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $10,000

Field
11 runners
Purse
$16,000
Post
9:24 PM ET
Pace
Tactical / Honest
Card model top pick
#10 · 24%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 77.75

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #10 Irish Whiskey (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 29 · 77 · 80. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #7 Yankee Prince at 7-2. Use #9 Life Run in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #10 IRISH WHISKEY (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #10 IRISH WHISKEY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 20.7%).
  • #7 YANKEE PRINCE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.8% to their 16.1%).
  • #9 LIFE RUN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 12.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #1 My Leo; pressure from #10 Irish Whiskey, #8 Alajuela.

Lead
none
Press
1My Leo9210Irish Whiskey888Alajuela87
Stalk
11Take This City809Life Run78
Close
4Firstup827Yankee Prince76
No style yet
3Making Noise832Baritone Crier805Tito766Seize The Port72

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

1
My Leo
92
10
Irish Whiskey
88
8
Alajuela
87
11
Take This City
80
9
Life Run
78

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

4
Firstup
13
7
Yankee Prince
13
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA($1 MIN.)/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.