R5 Delta Downs · Claiming $25,000

7:32 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $29,000 · 10 runners7:32 PM · 7f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $29K · Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Leslie's Mojeaux▲T. Thornton · W. CalhounThornton · CalhounA84 82 93►5-2Fair 5-229%► Steady84 82 93A▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 821
Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 84 82 93
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82
Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 15-for-59 on dirt this meet (25%), #1 of 30 · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Its Billy Baroo 9-2 · Trainer R3: Fearless Flame 12-1, R8: Bold Echo 4-1
60D LAYOFFCLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK
Freshened 132 days. Watch how its recent works look. Class relief: optional claiming last time, $25,000 claiming today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 11d ago
RECORD T G Thornton from post 1 here: 29 wins, 58 top-3 in 116 rides · 22% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/21 LS 6f D OC 75k n3l 2nd/6 84 2.1-1 b L Cmd5/16;clear;caught
5/30 EVD 1m D OC 15k b Won/7 82 0.3-1 b L Chsd;bid1/2;duel;edged
4/25 EVD 6f D Alw n1x Won/8 93 3.0-1 b L 3-w; drew clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/21	LS	6f D	OC 75k n3l	2nd/6	84	2.1-1	b L	Cmd5/16;clear;caught
5/30	EVD	1m D	OC 15k b	Won/7	82	0.3-1	b L	Chsd;bid1/2;duel;edged
4/25	EVD	6f D	Alw n1x	Won/8	93	3.0-1	b L	3-w; drew clear

2RosieontheriverJ. Mudd · J. BroussardMudd · BroussardC71 46 74▲+7↕20-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +771 46 74 ↕C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–74 · Last 3 figs 71 46 74

Jockey Jamison Mudd 14% career 0-for-17 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jervon Broussard 15% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

A step up in company: optional claiming before, $25,000 claiming today. Beaten 2½ lengths for 3rd in a 9-horse optional claiming race at DED.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 94d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	DED	6½f D	OC 8k	3rd/9 -2½L	71	12-1	b L	Late rally;outfinished
9/29	LAD	7½f T	OC 15k n1x	6th/6 -18L	46	11-1	b L	Fell back;not involved
8/25	LAD	1 1/16 D	OC 10k	3rd/8 -5L	74	5.2-1	b L	2w;4w upr;evenly

3Tapitures ActorE. Murray · J. GelnerMurray · GelnerB72 76 69▼-412-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -472 76 69B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 72 76 69

Jockey Erica M Murray 22% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jayde J Gelner 30% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Trainer R3: Golden Rey 8-1, R3: Loving Creed 10-1, this race: My Boy Vander 8-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 14 (4F in :48.00), 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/16	LS	5f T	fsAlw46000nc	5th/7 -7¾L	72	8.0-1	b L	Inside;mild late rally
4/17	LS	1m T	fsAlw46000nc	6th/7 -8L	76	12-1	b L	Prssd2w;gave way 1/4
3/20	HOU	5½f D	RHP 49-63	Won/7 by 1	69	2.7-1	b L	Prssd2w;wore dwn foe

4Rosie's Angus▲C. Hernandez · S. BreauxHernandez · BreauxA82 77 79▲+5≡@trip 755-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +582 77 79 ≡@trip 75A▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 823

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 75–82 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 77 79

▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82

Jockey Colby J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 30 · Trainer Samuel Breaux 36% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: E Ted 15-1, R4: Lucky Romance 7-2, R7: Hay Jude 7-2, R8: Bold Echo 4-1 · Trainer R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R2: Hand 15-1, R9: Making Noise 8-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at EVD at 5.6-1. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 23d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	EVD	-8f T	OC 15k b	Won/9	82	5.6-1	L	Quick 3wd move 1/4
7/18	EVD	-7½f T	Alw n1x	3rd/7 -¾L	77	2.2-1	L	Swung 6w;rallied well
4/15	EVD	1m T	OC 12k n1x	2nd/11 by hd	79	2.6-1	L	Speed; no match late

5Lady DreamerI. Castillo · L. BrileyCastillo · BrileyC42 75 66▼▼-28↕@trip 778-1Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -2842 75 66 ↕@trip 77C
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -28 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–75 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 42 75 66
Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-56 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Lonnie Briley 30% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R3: Battle Star 6-1, R4: Path To Success 9-2, R6: Island Gold 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Battle Star 6-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
A big drop, allowance to $25,000 claiming, and worth asking why. Goes 7 furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 9d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 CD 6f D Alw s 9th/9 -11L 42 54-1 b L 4p; wknd
8/7 ELP 6f D OC 20k 3rd/6 -3L 75 17-1 b L Ins;3p1/8;willingly
7/17 ELP 6f D Clm 25k 5th/6 -5L 66 7.3-1 b L Chased ins;3p upr;tire

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CD	6f D	Alw s	9th/9 -11L	42	54-1	b L	4p; wknd
8/7	ELP	6f D	OC 20k	3rd/6 -3L	75	17-1	b L	Ins;3p1/8;willingly
7/17	ELP	6f D	Clm 25k	5th/6 -5L	66	7.3-1	b L	Chased ins;3p upr;tire

6Classy'n Connected▲J. Melancon · A. LandryMelancon · LandryA59 82 80▼▼-20↕3-1Fair 9-218%▼▼ Big drop -2059 82 80 ↕A▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 22%) cutting back to a sprint2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -20 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–82 · Last 3 figs 59 82 80

▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 22%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey Jansen Melancon 33% career 6-for-39 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Allen Ray Landry 37% career ★ 15-for-40 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 39

Also today · Jockey R2: Two Good Old Guys 5-2, R3: Golden Rey 8-1, R7: Gavel 15-1, R8: Army Running Bayou 8-1 · Trainer R2: Two Good Old Guys 5-2, this race: Ice Cold Blonde 12-1, R7: Our Favorite Son 6-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS UP

Allen Ray Landry takes over the training from Chris Hartman. Has run 91 against a 82 par for the class.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD Jansen Melancon from post 6 here: 18 wins, 45 top-3 in 115 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/25	CD	1⅛m D	OC 80k n2x	8th/8 -14L	59	24-1	b L	3p-ins 1st; done early
5/17	CD	1 1/16 T	Clm 50k c	2nd/8 -2½L	82	2.7-1	b L	2-4p;6p1/4;rallied
4/25	CD	1m T	Clm 40k c	Won/8	80	1.7-1	b L	Ins;5p upr;bid;drw off

7Perfect UnionLSH. Hernandez · J. WongHernandez · WongC75 74 77▲+5@trip 5620-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +575 74 77@trip 56CLS

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 56 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 74 77

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-61 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jonathan Wong 47% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R4: Native Star 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R4: Path To Success 9-2, R6: R T's Gem 12-1, R7: Established 5-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $10,000 claiming race at LAD. Led at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (4F in :47.80), 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	LAD	6f D	Clm 10k n3l	Won/6	75	0.7-1	b L	Turned back foe;drivng
5/11	LAD	6f D	RHP 30-50	4th/6 -1½L	74	2.9-1	b L	Pace;met bid;faded
3/19	FG	6f D	Clm 30k b	Won/7	77	4.3-1	b L	Speed;dug in stretch

8My Boy Vander▲K. Roman · J. GelnerRoman · GelnerB81 74 75▲+6≡8-1Fair 12-17%▲ Up +6 · career best81 74 75 ≡B▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 74–81 · Last 3 figs 81 74 75
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jayde J Gelner 30% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Perfect Delight 12-1, R2: Springtown 7-2, R3: Loving Creed 10-1, R6: Beulah K 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Golden Rey 8-1, R3: Loving Creed 10-1, this race: Tapitures Actor 12-1
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Back after 98 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 14, in :48.00.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Kevin Roman from post 8 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 53 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/25 EVD 6f D Alw n1x Won/6 81 4.4-1 L Clear; steady urging
6/25 EVD 6f D Alw n1x 3rd/5 -½L 74 2.3-1 L Vied; clear; outclosed
6/5 LS 6½f D Alw n3l 4th/6 -2½L 75 8.1-1 L Early drive; ran-on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/25	EVD	6f D	Alw n1x	Won/6	81	4.4-1	L	Clear; steady urging
6/25	EVD	6f D	Alw n1x	3rd/5 -½L	74	2.3-1	L	Vied; clear; outclosed
6/5	LS	6½f D	Alw n3l	4th/6 -2½L	75	8.1-1	L	Early drive; ran-on

9Ice Cold Blonde▲C. Fusilier · A. LandryFusilier · LandryB86 58 73▲▲+19↕12-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best86 58 73 ↕B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 58–86 · Last 3 figs 86 58 73

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82

Jockey C Fusilier 32% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Allen Ray Landry 37% career ★ 15-for-40 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 39

Also today · Jockey R2: Coattails 8-1, R4: Byword 8-1, R6: Miss Priority 5-1, R7: Our Favorite Son 6-1 · Trainer R2: Two Good Old Guys 5-2, this race: Classy'n Connected 3-1, R7: Our Favorite Son 6-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7 furlongs. Returns from a 105-day break.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD C Fusilier from post 9 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 23 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/18	EVD	5½f D	Clm 20k n3l	Won/8 by 1	86	2.7-1	L	Save grd;led 1/8;drive
4/22	EVD	1m T	Clm 20k b	8th/11 -5½L	58	9.4-1	L	Passed tired ones
3/16	FG	6f D	Clm 15k n2lc	Won/5 by hd	73	1.6-1	L	3p;bid 5-7pupr;up;held

10Carson Bay▼A. Castillo · G. SchererCastillo · SchererC57 77 67▼▼-15@trip 778-1Fair 15-17%▼▼ Big drop -1557 77 67@trip 77C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 77 67

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Gary Scherer 31% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Tied The Knot 9-2, R4: Silver Redesdale 20-1, R6: Magnolia Avenue 4-1, R8: Pastinaca 3-1

LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Worked 5F in 1:02.00 on Oct 15, 2nd of 6 at the distance. Purse drops from $55,000 to $29,000 against its last start.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 22; 3 works in 30d

RECORD Alexander Castillo from post 10 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 23 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	CBY	6f D	fsMinDsfSpr55k	5th/5 -9L	57	21-1	b	Press btw;flat frm 1/2
8/15	CBY	7f D	fsAlw35000nc	2nd/5 -3L	77	7.9-1	b L	Pace ins;no match 3/16
6/28	CBY	7f D	OC 20k n2x	4th/5 -6L	67	9.0-1	b L	Prsd pc;svd gnd;faded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Claiming $25,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$29,000

Post

7:32 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 29%

Claiming $25,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 84.27

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Leslie's Mojeaux (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 84 · 82 · 93. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Classy'n Connected at 3-1. Use #4 Rosie's Angus in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 LESLIE'S MOJEAUX (5-2) — our number agrees.
#1 LESLIE'S MOJEAUX — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.1% to their 22.2%).
#6 CLASSY'N CONNECTED — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.5%).
#4 ROSIE'S ANGUS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.8% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 My Boy Vander; pressure from #3 Tapitures Actor, #1 Leslie's Mojeaux; the shape helps #1 Leslie's Mojeaux, #4 Rosie's Angus, #5 Lady Dreamer; and works against #3 Tapitures Actor, #8 My Boy Vander.

Lead

8My Boy Vander933Tapitures Actor86

Press

1Leslie's Mojeaux937Perfect Union9210Carson Bay885Lady Dreamer82

Stalk

4Rosie's Angus80

6Classy'n Connected809Ice Cold Blonde802Rosieontheriver73

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Leslie's Mojeaux

My Boy Vander

Perfect Union

Carson Bay

Tapitures Actor

Lady Dreamer

Rosie's Angus

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Classy'n Connected

Ice Cold Blonde

Rosieontheriver

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