R6 Delta Downs · State-Bred Allowance · $46,000 purse

8:00 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $46,000 · 10 runners8:00 PM · 7½f Dirt · 10 runners

Upcoming $46K · State-Bred Allowance · $46,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Magnolia Avenue▲A. Castillo · G. BryantCastillo · BryantA84 73 74▲▲+10@trip 744-1Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +1084 73 74@trip 74A▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 822

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 73 74

▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82

Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer George Bryant 30% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Tied The Knot 9-2, R4: Silver Redesdale 20-1, R5: Carson Bay 8-1, R8: Pastinaca 3-1 · Trainer R1: Tied The Knot 9-2

3/5 board here

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 2nd in an 8-horse allowance race at DED, beaten 3½ lengths.

PACE HELPS Closer-heavy field with little speed, so the late kick projects to matter.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 22d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Alexander Castillo from post 1 here: 3 wins, 16 top-3 in 49 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	DED	1m D	Alw b	2nd/8 -3½L	84	23-1	b L	Missed; needed more
6/20	LS	1m D	Clm 25k n3l	Won/6 by 2½	73	2.8-1	b L	Lag;circld;closed grnd
5/31	LS	1m T	Alw b	10th/11 -11L	74	65-1	b L	3w nr back;no late bid

2Beulah K▼K. Roman · R. CourvilleRoman · CourvilleC63 63 73▼-4@trip 7512-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -463 63 73@trip 75C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 63 73

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Ricky Courville 21% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Perfect Delight 12-1, R2: Springtown 7-2, R3: Loving Creed 10-1, R5: My Boy Vander 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Louisiana Sis 10-1

180D+ LAYOFF

Returns from a 267-day break, the biggest in the field. Goes 7½ furlongs after running 6½ furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS Pace is thin and the closers will be bunched; the late run is the race.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:02.00 on Sep 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Kevin Roman from post 2 here: 6 wins, 25 top-3 in 58 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
2/6	DED	6½f D	fsAlw46000n1x	4th/7 -7½L	63	17-1	b L	Trld;latekick;imprvd
1/23	DED	6½f D	fsAlw45000n1x	4th/8 -4L	63	5.1-1	b L	Ins;slipthru;flttnout
12/30	DED	7½f D	fsClm10000b	2nd/8 -2L	73	20-1	b L	No match; clear 2nd

3Uno PeaE. Barrera · J. CanoBarrera · CanoC57 68 69▼▼-12@trip 7512-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1257 68 69@trip 75C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 68 69

Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-55 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Juan Munoz Cano 31% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Mingling Mo 9-2, R3: Forever Chapin 5-2, R4: Soul Coaxing 5-2, R7: Eye Witness 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Soul Coaxing 5-2, R7: Mr McGregor 8-1, R7: Thunderhawk 10-1, R9: Irish Whiskey 5-2

180D+ LAYOFF

A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, allowance today. Back after 189 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.

PACE HELPS Not much speed ahead of it, which helps a closing run.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 3 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 80 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/25	EVD	1m D	Clm 4k	4th/6 -10L	57	1.7-1	b L	5-w; lacked rally
2/7	DED	1m D	fsPremLdys60k	5th/6 -7L	68	32-1	b L	Strkdist;adv3w;empty
1/8	DED	7½f D	fsOC15000n1x	4th/7 -3½L	69	10-1	L	Saved ground; improved

4Miss PriorityC. Fusilier · P. DuhonFusilier · DuhonA76 69 77▲+4≡5-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +476 69 77 ≡A3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 69–77 · Last 3 figs 76 69 77

Jockey C Fusilier 32% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Paul Duhon 28% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Coattails 8-1, R4: Byword 8-1, R5: Ice Cold Blonde 12-1, R7: Our Favorite Son 6-1 · Trainer R2: Coattails 8-1, R4: Byword 8-1

3/6 board here

2 wins from 3 starts at this distance. Purse drops from $100,000 to $46,000 against its last start.

EVEN PACE Can sit close in a field short on forward types.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 36 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD C Fusilier from post 4 here: 6 wins, 15 top-3 in 38 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DED	7f D	fsMagnoliaB100k	4th/9 by hd	76	49-1	L	Speed; no kick
8/13	EVD	6½f D	fsOC30000b	5th/6 -6L	69	34-1	L	Even effort; outrun
7/18	EVD	-5f T	fsAlw43000b	4th/7 -2½L	77	46-1	L	Brk slo;angl6w;bmp foe

5R T's Gem▲LSH. Hernandez · J. WongHernandez · WongB80 49 79▲▲+11↕@trip 7512-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +1180 49 79 ↕@trip 75B▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–80 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 49 79

▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-61 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jonathan Wong 47% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R4: Native Star 5-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R4: Path To Success 9-2, R5: Perfect Union 20-1, R7: Established 5-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS4/4 board here

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Beaten 1½ lengths for 9th in an 11-horse race at LAD.

EVEN PACE Tactical speed in a field of closers; early position could be worth a lot.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (3 wins)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LAD	1 1/16 T	fsLaCupDstfB75k	9th/11 -1½L	80	11-1	b L	Pressed 2p; gave way
6/6	EVD	1m D	fsLALgndTDB100k	5th/5 -10L	49	7.2-1	b L	Hopped start; stopped
5/1	EVD	1m D	fsEVDDstff75k	3rd/6	79	15-1	b L	Pace; clear; worn down

6Island GoldI. Castillo · J. LarrosaCastillo · LarrosaB73 83 81▼▼-8@trip 758-1Fair 8-111%▼▼ Big drop -873 83 81@trip 75B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 83 81

Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-56 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Juan A Larrosa 34% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R3: Battle Star 6-1, R4: Path To Success 9-2, R5: Lady Dreamer 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R4: Native Star 5-1, this race: Saved By Grace 6-1

3/6 board here

Runs for $46,000 today after a $100,000 race last time. Best recent figure of 83 sits right around the 82 par.

PACE HELPS Not much speed ahead of it, which helps a closing run.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DED	7f D	fsMagnoliaB100k	5th/9 -3¾L	73	72-1	L	Moved up; no factor
9/19	LAD	1 1/16 T	fsLaCupDstfB75k	6th/11 -3L	83	71-1	L	2p turns; mildly
2/28	FG	1m T	fsRedCamelaB100k	5th/7 -6½L	81	67-1	L	Trail; gain upr; flatn

7Saved By GraceC. Perez · J. LarrosaPerez · LarrosaB73 74 70►@trip 766-1Fair 8-111%► Steady73 74 70@trip 76B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 74 70

Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-55 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Juan A Larrosa 34% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Swamp Queen 2-1, R7: Thunderhawk 10-1, R9: My Leo 10-1 · Trainer R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R4: Native Star 5-1, this race: Island Gold 8-1

2/4 board here

Has won 7 of 17 going today's distance. 3rd of 6 at 5F on Aug 13, in 1:04.00.

PACE HELPS Closer-heavy field with little speed, so the late kick projects to matter.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Carlos Perez from post 7 here: 1 win, 22 top-3 in 55 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DED	7f D	fsMagnoliaB100k	7th/9 -5¼L	73	51-1	b L	Wide late; no bid
8/31	EVD	1m T	fs1stLdyLaB100k	7th/8 -4L	74	49-1	b L	Inside; no menace
8/20	EVD	1m T	Alw C	4th/6 -2½L	70	13-1	b L	Saved ground; no rally

8NodahE. Santiago · B. ChattersSantiago · ChattersA72 84 71▼▼-8@trip 822-1Fair 5-229%▼▼ Big drop -872 84 71@trip 82A1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 84 71

Jockey Edward Santiago 25% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Benard Chatters 35% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)

60D LAYOFF4/4 board here

Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 84 for the next best. Freshened 147 days. Watch how its recent works look.

EVEN PACE Tactical speed in a field of closers; early position could be worth a lot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Broke slowly; rail trip. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 17 days ago

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (2 wins)

RECORD Edward Santiago from post 8 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 38 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/6	EVD	1m D	fsLALgndTDB100k	3rd/5 -4½L	72	1.9-1	b L	Broke slowly;rail trip
5/1	EVD	1m D	fsEVDDstff75k	Won/6 by hd	84	4.0-1	b L	Sqz 7/8ths; ins rally
4/10	EVD	1m T	fsBonTempsB75k	6th/7 -2¾L	71	15-1	b L	No threat late

9Agami▼C. Del · R. Patt Jr.Del · Patt Jr.C64 62 56►20-1Fair 99-11%► Steady64 62 56C▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 64 62 56

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey Cid Erick Del 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Roland Jr Patt 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Flashy Boy 12-1, R7: The Donegal Clan 12-1, R9: Tito 15-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Has moved up each time out, 56 to 62 to 64. Dropped in well back early last out, 11th of 11 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Tactical speed in a field of closers; early position could be worth a lot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/13	EVD	7f D	Clm 5k b	7th/11 -6L	64	52-1	b L	Saved ground; no bid
7/29	LAD	1 1/16 D	fsClm5000b	4th/7 -4½L	62	5.8-1	b L	5wd 7/8;3w;shift in
6/27	EVD	1m D	Clm 5k b	5th/7 -4L	56	14-1	b L	3-4w; no threat

10Molto VinoK. Arana · J. BernardArana · BernardC62 74 74▼-720-1Fair 99-11%▼ Down -762 74 74C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 62 74 74

Jockey Kelvin Arana 24% career 1-for-34 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer John Bernard 14% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

CLASS UP

Carries 115 pounds, 6 less than last time. A 74 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par.

PACE HELPS Pace is thin and the closers will be bunched; the late run is the race.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD Kelvin Arana from post 10 here: 1 win, 1 top-3 in 17 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	EVD	1m D	Clm 7k b	7th/9 -6L	62	12-1	b L	Evenly; lacked a bid
8/6	EVD	1m D	Clm 4k b	3rd/10 -6L	74	4.0-1	b L	Rail; gaining late
7/10	EVD	1m D	Clm 5k b	2nd/8 -½L	74	4.6-1	b L	Couldn't get by; game

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $46,000 purse

Field

10 runners

Purse

$46,000

Post

8:00 PM ET

Pace

Closers' Race

Card model top pick

#8 · 29%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 7 1/2 Furlongs: 91.22

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #8 Nodah (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 72 · 84 · 71. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Magnolia Avenue at 4-1. Use #4 Miss Priority in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 NODAH (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 NODAH — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.1% to their 26.0%).
#1 MAGNOLIA AVENUE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.4% to their 15.6%).
#4 MISS PRIORITY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 R T'S GEM (12-1) — our fair 7.0% is above the morning line's 6.0%; supported by: top barn (47%) + jockey (38%) at 12-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Closers' Race. Closer-heavy field with limited speed. Tactical horses + closers projected to advance late.

Likely leader: #4 Miss Priority; the shape helps #1 Magnolia Avenue, #2 Beulah K, #3 Uno Pea.

Lead

none

Press

4Miss Priority87

Stalk

5R T's Gem858Nodah839Agami74

1Magnolia Avenue807Saved By Grace803Uno Pea7910Molto Vino792Beulah K776Island Gold69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Miss Priority

R T's Gem

Nodah

Agami

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Uno Pea

Molto Vino

Magnolia Avenue

Beulah K

Island Gold

Saved By Grace

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