R1 Delta Downs · Claiming $10,000

5:40 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $22,000 · 8 runners5:40 PM · 7f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $22K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Louisiana Woman▼J. Rodriguez · R. EllisRodriguez · EllisC38 51 64▼▼-22↕20-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -2238 51 64 ↕C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 38–64 · Last 3 figs 38 51 64

▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Randy J Ellis 29% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Bigfoot Sighting 8-1, R7: Mr McGregor 8-1, R8: Golfito 5-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $10,000 claiming now. Last out was 7th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at EVD.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD Jose Luis Rodriguez from post 1 here: 10 wins, 31 top-3 in 86 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	EVD	1m D	Clm 5k n3l	7th/7 -10L	38	27-1	L	Outrun; showed little
7/10	EVD	-8f T	Clm 15k n3l	7th/7 -11L	51	30-1	L	Failed to respond
2/21	FG	1m D	fsClm5000n2l	Won/6 by hd	64	1.2-1	L	Setld; 4wbid; driving

2I Love Mango'sJ. Ramirez Jr. · S. MartinezRamirez Jr. · MartinezB70 66 62▲▲+88-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +870 66 62B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 70 66 62

Jockey Julio Jr Ramirez 33% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Sarah Martinez 32% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST2/3 board here

Winner of a 9-horse $7,500 claiming race at DED last time. Has moved up each time out, 62 to 66 to 70.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Pulled away; best.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.20 on Jul 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Julio Jr Ramirez from post 2 here: 5 wins, 12 top-3 in 22 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/21	DED	6½f D	Clm 5k n2l	Won/9	70	1.8-1	b L	Pulled away; best
9/7	EVD	5f D	Clm 10k n2l	3rd/11 -2L	66	5.5-1	b L	2w; closed willingly
8/27	EVD	6f D	fsClm10000n2l	3rd/8 -3L	62	7.0-1	b L	Btw;no match upper

3Perfect Delight▼K. Roman · I. GonzalezRoman · GonzalezC67 60 55▲▲+11@trip 6012-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +1167 60 55@trip 60C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 60 55

▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75

Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Isai V Gonzalez 31% career ★ 9-for-41 on dirt this meet (22%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Springtown 7-2, R3: Loving Creed 10-1, R5: My Boy Vander 8-1, R6: Beulah K 12-1 +1 more

CLASS UPWON LAST3/4 board here

Switches from turf to dirt. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 75 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Shuffld7/16; jumpd trck last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Kevin Roman from post 3 here: 6 wins, 26 top-3 in 77 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	LAD	1m T	Clm 10k n2l	Won/8 by ½	67	31-1	b L	Shuffld7/16;jumpd trck
8/22	EVD	1m D	fsClm5000n2lc	3rd/6 -3L	60	0.9-1	b L	Stalked; flattened out
5/21	EVD	7f D	Clm 10k n2l	7th/7 -3L	55	33-1	b L	Close up; weakened

4Tied the KnotA. Castillo · G. BryantCastillo · BryantB72 71 64▲+4≡9-2Fair 12-18%▲ Up +4 · career best72 71 64 ≡B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 64–72 · Last 3 figs 72 71 64

Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer George Bryant 30% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Silver Redesdale 20-1, R5: Carson Bay 8-1, R6: Magnolia Avenue 4-1, R8: Pastinaca 3-1 · Trainer R6: Magnolia Avenue 4-1

CLASS UPJky 6/69 from post 4

Figures are climbing: 64, 71, 72 over its last three. Goes 7 furlongs after running 6 furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)

RECORD Alexander Castillo from post 4 here: 6 wins, 20 top-3 in 69 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	LAD	6f D	Clm 10k n3l	2nd/6 -½L	72	3.2-1	L	Brief bid; 2nd best
8/11	LAD	5½f D	fsClm5000n2lc	Won/6	71	0.5-1	L	Vied bw;assert upr;drv
7/31	EVD	6f D	fsClm5000n2l	3rd/11 -3L	64	2.5-1	b L	Off slow;bumped;closed

5Ex GonnaJ. Hernandez · E. RamaekersHernandez · RamaekersB71 58 69▲▲+18↕8-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best71 58 69 ↕B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–71 · Last 3 figs 71 58 69

Jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez 38% career 4-for-42 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Eric Ramaekers 29% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Dirty Straight Up 6-1, R3: Rhone Valley 10-1, R9: Firstup 8-1 · Trainer R9: Firstup 8-1

A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today. A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Javier Antonio Hernandez from post 5 here: 3 wins, 7 top-3 in 26 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	DED	5f D	Clm 5k n3l	2nd/8 by hd	71	6.0-1	b L	Speed; caught
9/19	LAD	5f T	fsAlw28000n1x	6th/6 -4L	58	49-1	b L	Tight;steadied rail3/8
9/7	EVD	5f D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/11 by 1½	69	9.0-1	b L	Rallied; 4w; driving

6Majestic RagsH. Hernandez · J. LarrosaHernandez · LarrosaA70 69 74►≡6-1Fair 6-114%► Steady70 69 74 ≡A3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 64–74 · Last 3 figs 70 69 74

Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-61 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Juan A Larrosa 34% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R4: Native Star 5-1, R5: Perfect Union 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R4: Native Star 5-1, R6: Island Gold 8-1, R6: Saved By Grace 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/5 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 77. Jockey switch: Javier Antonio Hernandez last out, Harry Hernandez today.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 21d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/17	DED	5f D	fsClm20000n3l	5th/7 -1¾L	70	7.6-1	b L	Pressed; retreated
8/29	EVD	6f D	fsAlw41000n1x	5th/7 -4L	69	5.2-1	L	Reared st;bid;faltered
7/18	EVD	5½f D	Clm 20k n3l	4th/8 -3L	74	3.8-1	L	3w turn; mildly btwn

7Classic EmbraceI. Castillo · J. WongCastillo · WongA68 75 64►@trip 683-1Fair 5-228%► Steady68 75 64@trip 68A2

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 75 64

Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-56 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jonathan Wong 47% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Battle Star 6-1, R4: Path To Success 9-2, R5: Lady Dreamer 8-1, R6: Island Gold 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Path To Success 9-2, R5: Perfect Union 20-1, R6: R T's Gem 12-1, R7: Established 5-1

CLASS UP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. A big drop, $20,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Carried 6w 1st; miss2nd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	LAD	7½f T	fsClm20000n3l	3rd/7 -2½L	68	2.9-1	b L	Carried 6w 1st;miss2nd
9/7	LAD	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n3lc	2nd/7 -3L	75	0.9-1	b L	Shifted out; slow gain
8/24	LAD	1m T	Clm 7k n3l	5th/7 -5½L	64	2.7-1	b L	Inside; no menace

8Swamp QueenC. Perez · B. BrinkmanPerez · BrinkmanA71 71 74►≡@trip 722-1Fair 5-228%► Steady71 71 74 ≡@trip 72A1

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–74 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 71 74

Jockey Carlos Perez 32% career 1-for-55 on dirt this meet (2%) · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 6-for-32 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Saved By Grace 6-1, R7: Thunderhawk 10-1, R9: My Leo 10-1 · Trainer R3: Rhone Valley 10-1, R7: Life Is A Banquet 12-1

A 57-day gap since its last race. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD Carlos Perez from post 8 here: 5 wins, 22 top-3 in 58 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	EVD	7½f T	fsClm15000n3l	4th/8 -1L	71	6.4-1	L	Closed;just missed 3rd
8/6	EVD	-8f T	fsAlw42000n3l	6th/8 -5L	71	16-1	L	Brief bid; faltered
7/10	EVD	-8f T	Clm 15k n3l	3rd/7 -1L	74	6.3-1	L	Closed; not enough

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #4, #5.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $10,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$22,000

Post

5:40 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#8 · 28%

Claiming $10,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 84.27

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #8 Swamp Queen (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 71 · 71 · 74. Backup is #7 Classic Embrace at 3-1. Use #6 Majestic Rags in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 SWAMP QUEEN (2-1) — our number agrees.
#8 SWAMP QUEEN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.4% to their 26.6%).
#7 CLASSIC EMBRACE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 19.9%).
#6 MAJESTIC RAGS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.2% to their 11.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Ex Gonna; pressure from #4 Tied The Knot, #2 I Love Mango's.

Lead

none

Press

5Ex Gonna924Tied The Knot892I Love Mango's85

Stalk

3Perfect Delight791Louisiana Woman707Classic Embrace65

6Majestic Rags878Swamp Queen82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Ex Gonna

Tied The Knot

I Love Mango's

Perfect Delight

Louisiana Woman

Classic Embrace

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Majestic Rags

Swamp Queen

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