R3 Delta Downs · Maiden Special Weight

6:36 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $35,000 · 9 runners6:36 PM · 7f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $35K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Rhone Valley▼J. Hernandez · B. BrinkmanHernandez · BrinkmanB62 65@trip 6210-1Fair 15-16%—62 65@trip 62B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 65

    ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez 38% career 4-for-42 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Brett Brinkman 31% career 6-for-32 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Ex Gonna 8-1, R2: Dirty Straight Up 6-1, R9: Firstup 8-1 · Trainer R1: Swamp Queen 2-1, R7: Life Is A Banquet 12-1

    Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 65 against a 76 par. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 5 (4F in :48.40), 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Javier Antonio Hernandez from post 1 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 24 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9DED7f DMSW7th/8 -2½L6214-1LPressed pace;retreated
    8/15EVD5½f DMSW3rd/6 -2L6516-1LIn range; no rally
  2. 2Its Billy Baroo▼T. Thornton · J. BerndtThornton · BerndtB659-2Fair 9-218%—65B▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 763

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 65

    ▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey T G Thornton 44% career ★ 15-for-59 on dirt this meet (25%), #1 of 30 · Trainer Joel Berndt 35% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R5: Leslie's Mojeaux 5-2 · Trainer R7: Street Warrior 5-2
    60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

    Returns from a 100-day break, the biggest in the field. Finished 2nd in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at CBY, beaten 1 length.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Pinched st; held at bay), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 24d back)
    RECORD T G Thornton from post 2 here: 22 wins, 43 top-3 in 101 rides · 22% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    7/23CBY4½f DMSW2nd/7 -1L650.7-1Pinched st;held at bay
  3. 3Bravo LimaH. Hernandez · J. LarrosaHernandez · LarrosaA72 74@trip 727-2Fair 4-121%—72 74@trip 72A2

    Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 74

    Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-61 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Juan A Larrosa 34% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R4: Native Star 5-1, R5: Perfect Union 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R4: Native Star 5-1, R6: Island Gold 8-1, R6: Saved By Grace 6-1

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 74. 3rd last time, a head back, in a field of 8.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9DED7f DMSW3rd/8 by hd722.3-1LSpeed; outfinished
    8/15EVD5½f DMSW2nd/6744.4-1LVied throughout; game
  4. 4E Ted▼C. Hernandez · J. JeansonneHernandez · JeansonneC5115-1Fair 30-13%—51C▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 51

    ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Colby J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 30 · Trainer Justin Jeansonne 32% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R4: Lucky Romance 7-2, R5: Rosie's Angus 5-1, R7: Hay Jude 7-2, R8: Bold Echo 4-1

    Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/21LAD7½f TMSW4th/8 -2½L513.0-1b LBtwn;3p5/16; faded str
  5. 5Fearless FlameE. Nieves · W. CalhounNieves · Calhoun?12-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?

    Jockey Emanuel Nieves 32% career 0-for-20 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%)
    Also today · Jockey R8: Runningoncloudnine 2-1 · Trainer R5: Leslie's Mojeaux 5-2, R8: Bold Echo 4-1

    Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Flameaway and Cara Mia breeding. First-time starter from a barn that wins 12% of the time with them (243 tried).

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 11d back

    Last three races

    First start. By Flameaway out of Cara Mia (Dixie Union)
    Trainer W. Calhoun: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 31% in the money (243 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 31% in the money (205 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 43% in the money (664 starts)
    Jockey E. Nieves in sprints: 33 wins from 219 (15%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/20CCT5f1:03.20breezing2/5
    10/13CCT5f1:03.20breezing6/11
    10/6CCT4f:50.20handily9/27from gate
    9/29CCT4f:51.40breezing41/69
    9/22CCT4f:51.60breezing37/59
  6. 6Battle Star▼I. Castillo · L. BrileyCastillo · BrileyB67 46@trip 676-1Fair 10-110%—67 46@trip 67B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 46

    ▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-56 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Lonnie Briley 30% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R4: Path To Success 9-2, R5: Lady Dreamer 8-1, R6: Island Gold 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Lady Dreamer 8-1

    Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call. Last out was 4th, 3¼ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at DED.

    PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 10d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9DED7f DMSW4th/8 -3¼L6721-1b LMoved up; no factor
    8/2ELP5½f DMSW10th/10 -13L4660-1Step slw/floatd in;ins
  7. 7Golden Rey▼J. Melancon · J. GelnerMelancon · GelnerA64 61 67►≡@trip 648-1Fair 15-16%► Steady64 61 67 ≡@trip 64A▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 61–70 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 61 67

    ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Jansen Melancon 33% career 6-for-39 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Jayde J Gelner 30% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Two Good Old Guys 5-2, R5: Classy'n Connected 3-1, R7: Gavel 15-1, R8: Army Running Bayou 8-1 · Trainer this race: Loving Creed 10-1, R5: Tapitures Actor 12-1, R5: My Boy Vander 8-1

    The Aug 9 work, 3F in :37.00, was the best time at that distance that morning. Beaten 4¼ lengths for 5th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at DED.

    EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 39d back)
    RECORD Jansen Melancon from post 7 here: 10 wins, 36 top-3 in 92 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9DED7f DMSW5th/8 -4¼L6414-1b LIn middle; weakened
    8/15EVD5½f DMSW4th/6 -6L613.3-1b LEven effort; no threat
    7/11LS5f DrTXStStAvg81k2nd/7 -5L671.0-1b L3w;late run2nd;no mtch
  8. 8Loving Creed▼K. Roman · J. GelnerRoman · GelnerC6010-1Fair 20-15%—60C▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 76

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 60

    ▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 76
    Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jayde J Gelner 30% career 3-for-23 on dirt this meet (13%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Perfect Delight 12-1, R2: Springtown 7-2, R5: My Boy Vander 8-1, R6: Beulah K 12-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Golden Rey 8-1, R5: Tapitures Actor 12-1, R5: My Boy Vander 8-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 23 (3F in :37.20), 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Kevin Roman from post 8 here: 2 wins, 13 top-3 in 53 rides · 8% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/28LAD5f DMSW5th/7 -3¾L6017-1LTracked inside;empty
  9. 9Forever ChapinE. Barrera · C. CormierBarrera · CormierA73@trip 735-2Fair 5-227%—73@trip 73A1

    Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73

    Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-55 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Cardel Cormier 19% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Mingling Mo 9-2, R4: Soul Coaxing 5-2, R6: Uno Pea 12-1, R7: Eye Witness 20-1 +1 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Worked 4F in :49.60 on Aug 29, 2nd of 33 at the distance. Last out was 2nd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at DED.

    PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d ago
    RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 9 here: 8 wins, 26 top-3 in 57 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9DED7f DMSW2nd/8 -2L731.0-1LFractious gate; gain

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART7 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field
9 runners
Purse
$35,000
Post
6:36 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#9 · 27%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 84.27

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #9 Forever Chapin (a closer, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 73. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Bravo Lima at 7-2. Use #2 Its Billy Baroo in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #9 FOREVER CHAPIN (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #9 FOREVER CHAPIN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.9% to their 22.6%).
  • #3 BRAVO LIMA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.6%).
  • #2 ITS BILLY BAROO — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.7%, they've got 14.4%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #2 ITS BILLY BAROO — we make it 16.7%, the morning line works out to 14.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Its Billy Baroo; pressure from #3 Bravo Lima, #1 Rhone Valley; the shape helps #9 Forever Chapin; and works against #1 Rhone Valley, #2 Its Billy Baroo, #3 Bravo Lima.

Lead
2Its Billy Baroo853Bravo Lima851Rhone Valley82
Press
7Golden Rey78
Stalk
4E Ted83
Close
9Forever Chapin66
No style yet
8Loving Creed856Battle Star725Fearless Flame

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

2
Its Billy Baroo
85
3
Bravo Lima
85
4
E Ted
83
1
Rhone Valley
82
7
Golden Rey
78

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

9
Forever Chapin
12
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