R4 Delta Downs · Claiming $5,000

7:04 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $15,000 · 9 runners7:04 PM · 1m Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $15K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Bigfoot SightingJ. Rodriguez · C. GoveaRodriguez · GoveaB76 40 79▲▲+13↕@trip 838-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +1376 40 79 ↕@trip 83B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–79 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 40 79

Jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Cesar Govea 24% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Louisiana Woman 20-1, R7: Mr McGregor 8-1, R8: Golfito 5-1 · Trainer R7: Gavel 15-1, R9: Tito 15-1

CLASS DROP

Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

RECORD Jose Luis Rodriguez from post 1 here: 10 wins, 31 top-3 in 86 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/23	DED	7f D	OC 5k	4th/9	76	11-1	b L	Speed; clear; no kick
7/30	EVD	1m D	Clm 7k n2y	7th/7 -13L	40	3.6-1	b L	Saved ground; outrun
7/11	EVD	1m D	Alw s	4th/8 -2L	79	5.5-1	b L	Angled in; weakened

2Mo HopeM. Alvarez · V. DavisAlvarez · DavisC77 70 73▲+6≡@trip 7410-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +677 70 73 ≡@trip 74C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ≡ Steady figures 70–77 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 70 73

Jockey Misael Alvarez 34% career 1-for-32 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Veronica Davis 33% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Hand 15-1, R9: Baritone Crier 20-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS DROP

Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to a mile. Finished 5th in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at LAD, beaten 1½ lengths.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP 3w turn; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 21d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/24	LAD	6½f D	Clm 5k b	5th/7 -1½L	77	3.2-1	b L	3w turn; faltered
7/29	LAD	1m T	Clm 7k	3rd/5 -2½L	70	4.7-1	b L	In clear;3wd mv;churn
6/30	LAD	1m T	OC 10k	6th/7 -4½L	73	29-1	L	3wd-ins;ins;weakened

3Soul Coaxing★E. Barrera · J. CanoBarrera · CanoA70 78 80▼▼-9@trip 885-2Fair 7-223%▼▼ Big drop -970 78 80@trip 88A★ Best at the trip 881

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 78 80

★ Best at the trip 88

Jockey Elio J Barrera 32% career 7-for-55 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Juan Munoz Cano 31% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Mingling Mo 9-2, R3: Forever Chapin 5-2, R6: Uno Pea 12-1, R7: Eye Witness 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Uno Pea 12-1, R7: Mr McGregor 8-1, R7: Thunderhawk 10-1, R9: Irish Whiskey 5-2

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Class relief: $7,500 claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5w13/16; 3w 2nd; up3rd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD Elio J Barrera from post 3 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 80 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	LAD	7½f T	Clm 7k	3rd/6 -2½L	70	1.1-1	b L	5w13/16;3w 2nd;up3rd
9/16	LAD	1m T	Clm 7k	Won/6	78	1.9-1	b L	Pace 4-3p;dug in late
7/21	LAD	7½f T	Clm 10k	3rd/8 -1L	80	5.9-1	b L	3-w 1/4;no final bid

4It's a Secret▼▼T. Pompell · K. SeguraPompell · SeguraC60 74 61▼▼-9@trip 7415-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -960 74 61@trip 74C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 74 61

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 79▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey T L Pompell 29% career ★ 9-for-43 on dirt this meet (21%), #2 of 30 · Trainer Kearney Segura 24% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Pericles 15-1, R7: Life Is A Banquet 12-1, R9: Life Run 5-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS UPJky 21/111 from post 4

Drops from optional claiming to $5,000 claiming. 3 wins from 8 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD T L Pompell from post 4 here: 21 wins, 48 top-3 in 111 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	EVD	1m T	sOC12500n1x	12th/12 -9½L	60	62-1	b L	No factor; outrun
7/16	EVD	1m D	sClm5000b	Won/9 by hd	74	37-1	b L	Got thru rail; dueled
5/14	EVD	1m D	Clm 15k b	6th/8 -3½L	61	45-1	b L	Bumped into 1st turn

5Silver RedesdaleA. Castillo · E. MojicaCastillo · MojicaC61 58 63►≡@trip 7920-1Fair 50-12%► Steady61 58 63 ≡@trip 79C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 58–65 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 58 63

Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Edith A Mojica 27% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Tied The Knot 9-2, R5: Carson Bay 8-1, R6: Magnolia Avenue 4-1, R8: Pastinaca 3-1

3/5 board here

A 65 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Beaten 5¾ lengths for 9th in a 10-horse $4,000 claiming race at DED.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 135d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Alexander Castillo from post 5 here: 1 win, 10 top-3 in 57 rides · 5% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	DED	7f D	Clm 4k n1y	9th/10 -5¾L	61	42-1	b L	Showed little
9/9	LAD	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n1y	8th/8 -7½L	58	42-1	b L	Prompt 4w 1st;faltered
8/16	GIL	6f D	Clm 5k	5th/7 -6L	63	7.1-1	b L	Never a factor

6BywordC. Fusilier · P. DuhonFusilier · DuhonB65 85 82▼▼-19↕@trip 828-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1965 85 82 ↕@trip 82B
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–85 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 85 82
Jockey C Fusilier 32% career ★ 6-for-30 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Paul Duhon 28% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Coattails 8-1, R5: Ice Cold Blonde 12-1, R6: Miss Priority 5-1, R7: Our Favorite Son 6-1 · Trainer R2: Coattails 8-1, R6: Miss Priority 5-1
CLASS DROP
A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Has run 85 against a 79 par for the class.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 24d back)
RECORD C Fusilier from post 6 here: 5 wins, 14 top-3 in 41 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/14 DED 6½f D OC 8k 9th/10 -3¾L 65 9.5-1 b L Outrun
8/21 EVD 6f D Clm 7k b Won/6 85 4.4-1 b L Clear lead; held well
5/1 EVD 1m D Alw s 3rd/7 -3L 82 8.5-1 b L Mild inside bid

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	DED	6½f D	OC 8k	9th/10 -3¾L	65	9.5-1	b L	Outrun
8/21	EVD	6f D	Clm 7k b	Won/6	85	4.4-1	b L	Clear lead; held well
5/1	EVD	1m D	Alw s	3rd/7 -3L	82	8.5-1	b L	Mild inside bid

7Lucky Romance▲C. Hernandez · A. Ramirez-RodriguezHernandez · Ramirez-RodriguezA79 80 65▲+7@trip 807-2Fair 4-119%▲ Up +779 80 65@trip 80A▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 793

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 80 65

▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79

Jockey Colby J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 30 · Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez 36% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: E Ted 15-1, R5: Rosie's Angus 5-1, R7: Hay Jude 7-2, R8: Bold Echo 4-1 · Trainer R2: Springtown 7-2

WON LAST

Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez takes over the training from Allen Ray Landry. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse $5,000 claiming race at DED at 0.5-1.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 29 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	DED	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k n4lc	Won/10	79	0.5-1	b L	Dueled; prevailed
8/29	EVD	1m D	Clm 5k b	3rd/8 -1L	80	1.8-1	b L	Rail bid; gaining
8/15	EVD	1m T	OC 15k	10th/10 -11L	65	5.8-1	b L	No factor; outrun

8Path to SuccessI. Castillo · J. WongCastillo · WongB75 72 82►@trip 429-2Fair 4-119%► Steady75 72 82@trip 42B2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 42 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 72 82

Jockey Isaac Castillo 30% career 5-for-56 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Jonathan Wong 47% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R3: Battle Star 6-1, R5: Lady Dreamer 8-1, R6: Island Gold 8-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Classic Embrace 3-1, R5: Perfect Union 20-1, R6: R T's Gem 12-1, R7: Established 5-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at LAD. Led at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/10	LAD	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	Won/6	75	1.2-1	b L	Pace 2p;met bid;dug in
6/24	LAD	7f D	Clm 5k b	5th/6 -5¼L	72	1.8-1	b L	Lacked response 3w
5/25	LAD	1 1/16 D	Clm 5k b	2nd/7	82	1.3-1	b L	Brk out;4wd;led;caught

9Native Star▲H. Hernandez · J. LarrosaHernandez · LarrosaA83 71 70▲▲+12@trip 865-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +1283 71 70@trip 86A▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 79

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 71 70

▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 79

Jockey Harry Hernandez 38% career 10-for-61 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Juan A Larrosa 34% career 4-for-36 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R2: Dynamite Tonight 8-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R5: Perfect Union 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Majestic Rags 6-1, R3: Bravo Lima 7-2, R6: Island Gold 8-1, R6: Saved By Grace 6-1

60D LAYOFFWON LAST2/4 board here

Figures are climbing: 70, 71, 83 over its last three. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 86, with 85 next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	EVD	1m D	Clm 5k b	Won/8	83	5.9-1	L	Pace; roused; held on
6/26	EVD	1m D	sClm5000n2y	6th/7 -4L	71	4.8-1	b L	Hustled;gave way btwn
6/12	EVD	1m D	Clm 7k b	5th/7 -6½L	70	7.0-1	b L	4w turns; no kick

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

DELTA DOWNS · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$15,000

Post

7:04 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 23%

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 96.89

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Soul Coaxing (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 70 · 78 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Path To Success at 9-2. Use #7 Lucky Romance in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 SOUL COAXING (5-2) — our number agrees.
#3 SOUL COAXING — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.3%).
#7 LUCKY ROMANCE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.8% to their 17.4%).
#8 PATH TO SUCCESS — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.5%, they've got 14.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#8 PATH TO SUCCESS — we make it 16.5%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Native Star; pressure from #3 Soul Coaxing, #2 Mo Hope; the shape helps #1 Bigfoot Sighting, #2 Mo Hope, #4 It's A Secret; and works against #3 Soul Coaxing, #9 Native Star.

Lead

9Native Star843Soul Coaxing72

Press

2Mo Hope891Bigfoot Sighting878Path To Success817Lucky Romance755Silver Redesdale744It's A Secret726Byword70

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mo Hope

Bigfoot Sighting

Native Star

Path To Success

Lucky Romance

Silver Redesdale

Soul Coaxing

It's A Secret

Byword

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Path To Success

Native Star

Mo Hope

Silver Redesdale

Byword

Lucky Romance

Bigfoot Sighting

Soul Coaxing

It's A Secret

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