1Golfito▼J. Rodriguez · J. LaraRodriguez · LaraB69 73 76▼-65-1Fair 7-113%
▼ Down -669 73 76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 69 73 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Jockey Jose Luis Rodriguez 34% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jorge Lara 29% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R1: Louisiana Woman 20-1, R4: Bigfoot Sighting 8-1, R7: Mr McGregor 8-1 · Trainer R9: Alajuela 6-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSRuns for $100,000 after a $75,000 race last out. Goes 7 furlongs after running 5½ furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD Jose Luis Rodriguez from post 1 here: 10 wins, 31 top-3 in 86 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LAD 5½f D sLaCupJuvB75k 4th/8 -4L 69 1.5-1 b L Veered out brk; 4w 8/1 EVD 5½f D sDSYongFutB100k Won/8 by ½ 73 4.7-1 b L Brshd gte;5w;7w duel 6/6 EVD 4½f D sMdSpWt Won/5 by 1 76 3.2-1 b L Up late; going away 2Yo' Lion▲R. Williams · J. FosterWilliams · FosterA888-1Fair 15-16%
—88A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 88
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84WON LASTLast start was a win, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at LAD at 6.9-1. Owns the highest recent figure here at 88.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 14d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/23 LAD 5½f D sMdSpWt Won/6 88 6.9-1 L Pace 2p; cruised home 3Army Running Bayou▼LSJ. Melancon · A. KlanferMelancon · KlanferC64 67 72▼-68-1Fair 8-110%
▼ Down -664 67 72C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 84LSCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 64 67 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 84LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jansen Melancon 33% career 6-for-39 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Alan Klanfer 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Two Good Old Guys 5-2, R3: Golden Rey 8-1, R5: Classy'n Connected 3-1, R7: Gavel 15-1Figures have slipped: 72, 67, 64 over its last three. A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, 7 furlongs today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 60d back)RECORD Jansen Melancon from post 3 here: 14 wins, 38 top-3 in 96 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LAD 5½f D sLaCupJuvB75k 6th/8 -6¾L 64 6.0-1 b L Tight; std'd early 8/1 EVD 5½f D sDSYongFutB100k 4th/8 -½L 67 6.7-1 L Stalkd 3w;5w;chckd1/16 7/18 EVD 5f D sMdSpWt Won/6 by ½ 72 6.0-1 L Switch2w;drft;doggedly 4Louisiana Sis▼K. Roman · R. CourvilleRoman · CourvilleB66 49 73▲+510-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +566 49 73B▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 66 49 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 84Jockey Kevin Roman 33% career 6-for-49 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Ricky Courville 21% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Perfect Delight 12-1, R2: Springtown 7-2, R3: Loving Creed 10-1, R5: My Boy Vander 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Beulah K 12-1Best recent figure is 73, well under the 84 par for this level. Purse goes from $75,000 to $100,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 8d agoRECORD Kevin Roman from post 4 here: 6 wins, 23 top-3 in 71 rides · 8% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LAD 5½f D fsLaCpJuvFlB75k 7th/10 -5½L 66 57-1 b L Brk out;3w turn;no bid 7/31 EVD 5½f D fsDSYongFutB100k 9th/9 -7L 49 7.5-1 b L Bumped; impeded start 5/22 EVD 4½f D MSW Won/5 73 2.8-1 b L Vied ins;finished well 5Runningoncloudnine▼E. Nieves · D. PishNieves · PishA73 77 69►2-1Fair 5-231%
► Steady73 77 69A▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 841Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 73 77 69
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7 furlongs. Was 8th of 8 at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Swung widest; willingly last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 11d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LAD 5½f D sLaCupJuvB75k 2nd/8 -6¾L 73 4.6-1 L Swung widest;willingly 7/21 LAD 5f D sMdSpWt Won/6 77 0.8-1 L Prompt outs;drove clr 6/11 LS 5f D MSW 2nd/7 -1L 69 9.4-1 L Came back 2nd;no match 6Bold Echo▼C. Hernandez · W. CalhounHernandez · CalhounB75 634-1Fair 5-117%
—75 63B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 842Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 75 63
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84Jockey Colby J Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 30 · Trainer William Bret Calhoun 38% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R3: E Ted 15-1, R4: Lucky Romance 7-2, R5: Rosie's Angus 5-1, R7: Hay Jude 7-2 · Trainer R3: Fearless Flame 12-1, R5: Leslie's Mojeaux 5-2★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTWinner of a 10-horse maiden special weight race at DED last time. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 32 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 DED 5f D sMdSpWt Won/10 by 2 75 2.3-1 L Stalked; best late 7/18 EVD 5f D sMdSpWt 3rd/6 -2L 63 2.5-1 L 2p trn;3w uppr;kept on 7PastinacaA. Castillo · J. FosterCastillo · FosterA71 81 69▼-43-1Fair 5-117%
▼ Down -471 81 69A3Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 71 81 69
Jockey Alexander Castillo 30% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Joseph M Foster 30% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Tied The Knot 9-2, R4: Silver Redesdale 20-1, R5: Carson Bay 8-1, R6: Magnolia Avenue 4-1 · Trainer this race: Yo' Lion 8-1Jky 0/50 from post 7Jockey switch: Rey Williams last out, Alexander Castillo today. Runs for $100,000 after a $75,000 race last out.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 14d agoRECORD Alexander Castillo has never won from post 7 here (10 top-3 in 50 rides) · 5% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LAD 5½f D sLaCupJuvB75k 3rd/8 -4L 71 4.3-1 L 3w turn;caught 2nd 8/22 EVD 5f D sMdSpWt Won/11 by ½ 81 2.6-1 L Dueled late; best 7/21 LAD 5f D sMdSpWt 2nd/6 -½L 69 6.0-1 L Inside speed;2nd best
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
DELTA DOWNS · RACE 8
UPCOMINGLa Legacy Stakes
Stakes, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 84.27
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #5 Runningoncloudnine (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 73 · 77 · 69. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Bold Echo at 4-1. Use #7 Pastinaca in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 RUNNINGONCLOUDNINE (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #5 RUNNINGONCLOUDNINE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.7% to their 26.4%).
- #7 PASTINACA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.0% to their 19.8%).
- #6 BOLD ECHO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 15.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Yo' Lion; pressure from #4 Louisiana Sis, #7 Pastinaca; the shape helps #1 Golfito, #3 Army Running Bayou, #5 Runningoncloudnine; and works against #2 Yo' Lion, #4 Louisiana Sis.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA($1 MIN.)/TRIFECTA(.50 MIN.)/SUPERFECTA(.10 MIN.)/DAILY DOUBLE(RACES 8-9)
($1 MIN.)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta