FINGER LAKES · RACE 3
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $30,000
Claiming $30,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.2
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #3 Bernieandtherose (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 34 · 73 · 86. Backup is #5 Mischievous Trick at 4-1. Use #2 Play Good Pay Good in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Returns from a 96-day break, the biggest in the field. Tops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 88 for the next best.
2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. 2nd of 9 at 5F on Sep 11, in 1:01.20.
Won last out in a 6-horse optional claiming race at FL. Figures are climbing: 65, 83, 88 over its last three.
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.
A step up in company: $11,000 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today. Has moved up each time out, 70 to 86 to 87.
Class relief: optional claiming last time, allowance optional claiming today. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 INTENTIOUS (8-5) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #4 INTENTIOUS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (27.6% to their 30.3%).
- #2 PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.5%).
- #5 MISCHIEVOUS TRICK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.5% to their 15.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- #3 BERNIEANDTHEROSE — we make it 15.6%, the morning line works out to 13.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #1 Normandy Life; pressure from #6 Spun Size, #2 Play Good Pay Good.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4) *
PICK 3 (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 3-4-5) * PICK 4 (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 3-4-5-6)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta