R2 Finger Lakes · Claiming $5,000

1:24 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $14,000 · 6 runners1:24 PM · 1m Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $14K · Claiming $5,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #2 Cabernet (5-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 70 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

  1. 1Pure Elegance▼W. Rengifo · I. LoaizaRengifo · LoaizaB62 62 59►≡@trip 628-1Fair 12-17%► Steady62 62 59 ≡@trip 62B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 75

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 59–62 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 62 59

    ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey Wladimir Rengifo 21% career 1-for-36 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Ilmar Loaiza 23% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Trainer this race: Cabernet 5-1, R4: Mayheminthepalace 4-1

    Raises its level, $4,000 claiming last time and $5,000 claiming now. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.

    PACE HELPS Closer-heavy field with little speed, so the late kick projects to matter.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 158d back)
    RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 15 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/13FL6f DClm 4k n1y4th/8 -4¼L627.2-1b LRallied wide
    9/30FL1m DClm 5k n1y4th/7 -7L623.5-1b L5w1/2;4w1/4no response
    9/15FL6f DClm 4k n1y4th/8 -9L598.4-1b LBrk stp slw;4w trn
  2. 2Cabernet★O. Gomez · I. LoaizaGomez · LoaizaB65 63 55▲▲+8@trip 705-1Fair 7-112%▲▲ Big jump +865 63 55@trip 70B★ Best at the trip 70

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 63 55

    ★ Best at the trip 70
    Jockey O Gomez 30% career 14-for-83 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Ilmar Loaiza 23% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Mayheminthepalace 4-1, R5: Marion Grit 10-1, R6: Endless Appeal 6-1, R8: Can't Beat Me 5-2 · Trainer this race: Pure Elegance 8-1, R4: Mayheminthepalace 4-1
    WON LAST3/3 board here

    Won last out in an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at FL. Figures are climbing: 55, 63, 65 over its last three.

    PACE HELPS Pace is thin and the closers will be bunched; the late run is the race.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 30 days ago
    RECORD On the board in all 3 starts here (1 win)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/13FL6f DClm 4k n1yWon/8 by 1652.6-1b LClosed fast inside
    9/30FL1m DClm 5k n1y3rd/7 -7L633.4-1b L5w3/4; no match top 2
    7/27PID1 1/16 DClm 5k b7th/7 -9¾L5533-1b LTrailed; no factor;
  3. 3Chardonnay Derby▼K. Coa · J. GrabowskiCoa · GrabowskiA70 67 59▲▲+10@trip 595-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best70 67 59@trip 59A▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 75

    Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 67 59

    ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey Keiber J Coa 35% career 11-for-85 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer John A Grabowski 22% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #2 of 40
    Also today · Jockey R3: Mischievous Trick 4-1, R5: Lisa Loves 5-2, R6: Financial Star 3-1, R7: Probably Flattery 2-1
    WON LAST3/6 board here

    Last start was a win, in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at FL at 1.3-1. Has moved up each time out, 59 to 67 to 70.

    EVEN PACE A stalker's trip among closers is a good spot.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/29FL1 1/16 DClm 5k n3lWon/8 by 2701.3-1b LBlckd into str;rallied
    9/14FL1 1/16 DClm 5k n2lWon/7 by hd671.4-1b L3p3/8;5w1/4;drew off
    8/10FL1m DClm 5k n2l4th/7 -5L594.3-1b L4w1/2;2p5/16lckd rally
  4. 4TekilaJ. Cruz · J. BuckleyCruz · BuckleyA69 74 66►2-1Fair 7-223%► Steady69 74 66A2

    Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 69 74 66

    Jockey Joel Cruz 33% career ★ 18-for-82 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 25 · Trainer Jonathan B Buckley 34% career 10-for-53 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Grandma's Girl 4-1, R5: Surf Drive 8-1, R7: Beev's Blessing 6-1 · Trainer R1: Enterprisingly 2-1, R1: Grandma's Girl 4-1, R3: Intentious 8-5, R5: Mystery Solved 8-1 +1 more
    5/10 board here

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 74 against 72 for the next best. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile.

    PACE HELPS Not much speed ahead of it, which helps a closing run.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 145d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/13FL6f DClm 5k b3rd/7 -5½L692.0-1b L4w trn; with interest
    9/15FL6f DClm 5k n1y2nd/9 -2L748.1-1b L3p1/2finshd well insde
    8/18FL6f DClm 5k n1y2nd/5 -5L662.1-1b LCkd1/16;finshd well
  5. 5Glory Bound Clara▲J. Davis · W. BartlettDavis · BartlettB66 61 67►@trip 636-1Fair 7-112%► Steady66 61 67@trip 63B▲ Lone speed on early pace3

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 63 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 61 67

    ▲ Lone speed on early pace
    Jockey Jacqueline A Davis 31% career 5-for-54 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer William H Bartlett 22% career 1-for-11 on dirt this meet (9%)
    ★ FASTEST WORK6/10 board here

    Owns the highest recent figure here at 74. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.

    EVEN PACE Tactical speed in a field of closers; early position could be worth a lot.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 21; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/7FL6f DClm 5k b6th/7 -1¾L6614-1L2p3/8;rail bid;hung
    9/23FL5½f DClm 5k b5th/8 -9L618.6-1LSlgsh st;3p3/8;4w1/4
    8/25FL5½f DClm 5k b3rd/6 -5L676.7-1L4w1/2;2p trn;no threat
  6. 6Esther's Salad▼L. Perez · R. SellsPerez · SellsA69 67 66▲+3≡@trip 693-1Fair 5-228%▲ Up +3 · career best69 67 66 ≡@trip 69A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 751

    Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 64–69 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 67 66

    ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey L E Perez 32% career 13-for-71 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Rachel Sells 23% career 5-for-43 on dirt this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Light The Mira 8-1, R4: Mad Magic 5-1, R6: Tornado Control 2-1, R7: Trinity River 5-2 · Trainer R4: Stjames 6-1, R5: C Robin 12-1
    8/11 board here

    Gets a new rider, L E Perez replacing O K Hernandez. Was running in allowance; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

    EVEN PACE A stalker's trip among closers is a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago
    RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 11 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30FL1 1/16 DfsAlw24500n1x5th/6 -5½L6939-1b L3p tns;weakened
    9/7FL1m DClm 5k n3lWon/6672.1-1b L4w1/2;ridden out
    8/4FL1m DClm 5k n3l2nd/5 -½L660.7-1b LRail; clearly 2nd best

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART1 MILE · DIRT · main2-turn

FINGER LAKES · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field
6 runners
Purse
$14,000
Post
1:24 PM ET
Pace
Closers' Race
Card model top pick
#6 · 28%

Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 96.2

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Esther's Salad (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 69 · 67 · 66. Backup is #4 Tekila at 2-1. Use #5 Glory Bound Clara in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #4 TEKILA (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
  • #4 TEKILA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.4% to their 25.8%).
  • #3 CHARDONNAY DERBY — our #5 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 22.2%).
  • #6 ESTHER'S SALAD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 19.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Closers' Race. Closer-heavy field with limited speed. Tactical horses + closers projected to advance late.

Likely leader: #6 Esther's Salad; the shape helps #1 Pure Elegance, #2 Cabernet, #4 Tekila.

Lead
none
Press
6Esther's Salad72
Stalk
5Glory Bound Clara863Chardonnay Derby78
Close
4Tekila762Cabernet751Pure Elegance67

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

5
Glory Bound Clara
86
3
Chardonnay Derby
78
6
Esther's Salad
72

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Pure Elegance
8
2
Cabernet
8
4
Tekila
8
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