FINGER LAKES · RACE 4

UPCOMING

State-Bred Allowance · $17,500 purse

Field

6 runners

Purse

$17,500

Post

2:22 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Model top pick

#6 · 26%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Track record at 1 3/16 Miles: 118.4

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Raw Courage (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 77 · 74 · 74. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Mayheminthepalace at 4-1. Use #3 Tony O in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Tactical / Honest: Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

1TOP PICK

6Raw Courage

Jockey J M Rohena 25% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Aadil S Khan 20% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Play Good Pay Good 5-2

7/10 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 84. 3rd of 13 at 4F on Jun 6, in :49.00.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 116d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L2-1

Model26%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 16d

22ND

4Mayheminthepalace

Jockey O Gomez 30% career 13-for-80 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Ilmar Loaiza 23% career 4-for-27 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Cabernet 5-1, R5: Marion Grit 10-1, R6: Endless Appeal 6-1, R8: Can't Beat Me 5-2 · Trainer R2: Pure Elegance 8-1, R2: Cabernet 5-1

WON LAST7/9 board here

Won last out in a 6-horse $7,500 claiming race at FL. Stretches out from a mile to 1 3/16 miles.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 185 days ago

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

M/L4-1

Model17%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last1st · 14d

33RD

3Tony O

Jockey Diego Emanuel De 11-for-66 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Katlynn Gutterson 20% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R5: C Robin 12-1, R8: Max Foster 10-1 · Trainer R7: Lily's Army 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Class relief: $11,000 claiming last time, starter allowance today. Goes 1 3/16 miles after running a mile last time.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 26 (4F in :48.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

M/L9-2

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last3rd · 9d

44TH

1Stjames

Jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie 35% career 16-for-87 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Rachel Sells 23% career 5-for-40 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Gramma G G 3-1, R5: Cream Puff 4-1, R6: Iron Hall 5-1, R8: Allo Enry 5-1 · Trainer R2: Esther's Salad 3-1, R5: C Robin 12-1

CLASS UP9/15 board here

Drops from $11,000 claiming to starter allowance. A longer trip: a mile last out, 1 3/16 miles today.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 147d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 9 on the board from 15 starts here

M/L6-1

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last4th · 9d

55TH

5Mad Magic

Jockey L E Perez 32% career 13-for-67 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Michael Ferraro 36% career 20-for-111 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Light The Mira 8-1, R2: Esther's Salad 3-1, R6: Tornado Control 2-1, R7: Trinity River 5-2 · Trainer R7: Trinity River 5-2, R8: Camm' Duke 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK9/17 board here

Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 74). Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Sep 20, in :36.00.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 20 (3F in :36.00), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 4 wins, 9 on the board from 17 starts here

M/L5-1

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 16d

2Wild Banker

Jockey M A Jr Davila 16% career 7-for-41 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer David Oyola 21% career ★ 5-for-16 on dirt this meet (31%)

Also today · Trainer R8: Max Foster 10-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse allowance race at FL at 4.2-1. Best recent figure of 77 sits right around the 82 par.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.20 on Jun 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L3-1

Model15%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last1st · 16d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 RAW COURAGE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 RAW COURAGE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.7% to their 26.2%).
#2 WILD BANKER — our #6 number, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 19.6%).
#4 MAYHEMINTHEPALACE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.3% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #5 Mad Magic; pressure from #6 Raw Courage.

Lead

none

Press

5Mad Magic746Raw Courage73

Stalk

4Mayheminthepalace763Tony O711Stjames64

2Wild Banker69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mayheminthepalace

Mad Magic

Raw Courage

Tony O

Stjames

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Wild Banker

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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LATE PICK 5 WITH CARRYOVER (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 4-5-6-7-8)

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