FINGER LAKES · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Claiming $11,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$17,800

Post

3:49 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#4 · 21%

Claiming $11,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.8

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Henry's Hope (early speed, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 78 · 82 · 70. Backup is #7 Probably Flattery at 2-1. Use #2 Beev's Blessing in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

4Henry's Hope

Jockey Reylu Gutierrez 32% career ★ 11-for-54 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer Luis A Gutierrez 32% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Trainer R6: Words Of War 12-1, this race: Fess 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK6/12 board here

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 82, with 77 next best. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Aug 18; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 12 starts here

M/L4-1

Model21%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 15d

22ND

7Probably Flattery

Jockey Keiber J Coa 35% career 11-for-79 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer M Anthony Ferraro 36% career 20-for-111 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Chardonnay Derby 5-2, R3: Mischievous Trick 4-1, R5: Lisa Loves 5-2, R6: Financial Star 3-1 · Trainer R3: Mischievous Trick 4-1, R5: Lisa Loves 5-2, R6: Tornado Control 2-1, this race: Beev's Blessing 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK6/10 board here

Finished 2nd in a 6-horse $11,000 claiming race at FL, beaten 1½ lengths. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Sep 16 (:47.40), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (2p3/8; 5w1/4; rallied), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.40 on Sep 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L2-1

Model27%

Fav?Yes

StyleS

Last2nd · 16d

33RD

2Beev's Blessing

Jockey Joel Cruz 33% career ★ 17-for-78 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 25 · Trainer M Anthony Ferraro 36% career 20-for-111 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Grandma's Girl 4-1, R2: Tekila 2-1, R5: Surf Drive 8-1 · Trainer R3: Mischievous Trick 4-1, R5: Lisa Loves 5-2, R6: Tornado Control 2-1, this race: Probably Flattery 2-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 71 against a 82 par. Beaten 2 lengths for 5th in a 6-horse allowance race at FL.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3acrs7/16; 4w5/16wkn. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 12 (3F in :36.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L6-1

Model11%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last5th · 9d

44TH

3Fess

Jockey O K Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 25 · Trainer Luis A Gutierrez 32% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Words Of War 12-1, R8: Mister J T 3-1 · Trainer R6: Words Of War 12-1, this race: Henry's Hope 4-1

5th last time, ½ length back, in a field of 6. A 70 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 70d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L10-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last5th · 16d

55TH

5Trinity River

Jockey L E Perez 32% career 13-for-67 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Michael Ferraro 36% career 20-for-111 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Light The Mira 8-1, R2: Esther's Salad 3-1, R4: Mad Magic 5-1, R6: Tornado Control 2-1 · Trainer R4: Mad Magic 5-1, R8: Camm' Duke 4-1

WON LAST

Shortens up to 5½ furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Has moved up each time out, 60 to 68 to 69.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

SHARP LAST OUT Rail trns; ridden out last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

M/L5-2

Model18%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last1st · 28d

6Valiant Warrior

Jockey Ben S Joseph 0-for-25 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Debra A Breed 28% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Invaluable Will 5-1 · Trainer R8: Invaluable Will 5-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. The Jul 24 work, 4F in :48.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 78 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

M/L5-1

Model10%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 16d

1Lily's Army

Jockey Steven Fret 22% career 4-for-45 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer Katlynn Gutterson 20% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Trainer R4: Tony O 9-2

A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, $11,000 claiming today. Best recent figure is 72, well under the 82 par for this level.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 117d back)

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 5 starts here

M/L15-1

Model4%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last4th · 15d

At a glance

Market favourite #7 PROBABLY FLATTERY (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#7 PROBABLY FLATTERY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.2% to their 26.0%).
#5 TRINITY RIVER — our #5 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.3%).
#4 HENRY'S HOPE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Henry's Hope; pressure from #2 Beev's Blessing, #6 Valiant Warrior; the shape helps #7 Probably Flattery; and works against #2 Beev's Blessing, #4 Henry's Hope, #5 Trinity River.

Lead

4Henry's Hope962Beev's Blessing936Valiant Warrior905Trinity River85

Press

1Lily's Army893Fess88

Stalk

none

7Probably Flattery82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Henry's Hope

Beev's Blessing

Valiant Warrior

Lily's Army

Fess

Trinity River

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Probably Flattery

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