FINGER LAKES · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

8 runners

Purse

$32,600

Post

2:51 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#5 · 33%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.8

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #5 Lisa Loves (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 71 · 62. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Autumn Fire at 7-2. Use #8 Mi Amor Morena in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

5Lisa Loves

Jockey Keiber J Coa 35% career 11-for-79 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer M Anthony Ferraro 36% career 20-for-111 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Chardonnay Derby 5-2, R3: Mischievous Trick 4-1, R6: Financial Star 3-1, R7: Probably Flattery 2-1 · Trainer R3: Mischievous Trick 4-1, R6: Tornado Control 2-1, R7: Beev's Blessing 6-1, R7: Probably Flattery 2-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, a 71 against 69 for the next best. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Sep 16 (1:01.20), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 16; 1 work in 30d

M/L5-2

Model33%

Fav?Yes

StyleP

Last2nd · 14d

22ND

7Autumn Fire

Jockey C Russell 39% career 1-for-35 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro 34% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R6: Financial Star 3-1

2/3 board here

3rd of 26 at 4F on Aug 29, in :49.20. A 62 is the high figure lately, short of the 72 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

TROUBLED TRIP 5w1/2to3/8; 3p1/4 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 21 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

M/L7-2

Model16%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 14d

33RD

8Mi Amor Morena

Jockey N R Alvarado 34% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Linda K Dixon 28% career 5-for-32 on dirt this meet (16%)

60D LAYOFF

Back after 99 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. New trainer: Jose Corrales had it last time, Linda K Dixon now.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L5-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last5th · 99d

44TH

1Cream Puff

Jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie 35% career 16-for-87 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Bruce R Brown 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Gramma G G 3-1, R4: Stjames 6-1, R6: Iron Hall 5-1, R8: Allo Enry 5-1

Finished 11th in a 12-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at BEL, beaten 11 lengths. Was running in maiden claiming $50,000; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 5d ago)

M/L4-1

Model13%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last11th · 26d

55TH

4Marion Grit

Jockey O Gomez 30% career 13-for-80 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Paul Barrow 32% career ★ 16-for-80 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Cabernet 5-1, R4: Mayheminthepalace 4-1, R6: Endless Appeal 6-1, R8: Can't Beat Me 5-2 · Trainer R1: Majorsdreamcometru 5-2, R6: Nashville Knockout 4-1, R8: Can't Beat Me 5-2

First-time starter from a barn that wins 17% of the time with them (69 tried). There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 20.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d back

M/L10-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

6Mystery Solved

Jockey Kevin Navarro 29% career 6-for-48 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Jonathan B Buckley 34% career 10-for-52 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Enterprisingly 2-1, R3: Intentious 8-5, R6: Sunshine Lucile 8-1 · Trainer R1: Enterprisingly 2-1, R1: Grandma's Girl 4-1, R2: Tekila 2-1, R3: Intentious 8-5 +1 more

Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Mo Donegal and Mystery Mix breeding. This barn has 38 first-time starters on record and wins 13% of them.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 20 days ago

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

3Surf Drive

Jockey Joel Cruz 33% career ★ 17-for-78 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 25 · Trainer James Acquilano 26% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Grandma's Girl 4-1, R2: Tekila 2-1, R7: Beev's Blessing 6-1 · Trainer R6: Endless Appeal 6-1

Unraced so far; the pedigree is Mendelssohn out of Belongs To Dixie. Worked 5F in 1:03.20 on Oct 3, 3rd fastest of 7 that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago

M/L8-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

2C Robin

Jockey Diego Emanuel De 11-for-66 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Rachel Sells 23% career 5-for-40 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Tony O 9-2, R8: Max Foster 10-1 · Trainer R2: Esther's Salad 3-1, R4: Stjames 6-1

Best recent figure is 46, well under the 72 par for this level. 4th last time, 6½ lengths back, in a field of 6.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 22 days ago

M/L12-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last4th · 14d

At a glance

Market favourite #5 LISA LOVES (5-2) — our number agrees.
#5 LISA LOVES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.9% to their 22.6%).
#7 AUTUMN FIRE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.8% to their 17.6%).
#1 CREAM PUFF — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 15.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Mi Amor Morena; pressure from #1 Cream Puff, #2 C Robin; and works against #1 Cream Puff, #2 C Robin, #3 Surf Drive.

Lead

8Mi Amor Morena951Cream Puff932C Robin907Autumn Fire85

Press

none

Stalk

5Lisa Loves87

none

No style yet

3Surf Drive4Marion Grit6Mystery Solved

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mi Amor Morena

Cream Puff

C Robin

Lisa Loves

Autumn Fire

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Mi Amor Morena

Cream Puff

Lisa Loves

C Robin

Autumn Fire

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