FINGER LAKES · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Claiming $4,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$11,200

Post

4:18 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Model top pick

#3 · 21%

Claiming $4,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race recently.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.8

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Camm' Duke (early speed, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 47 · 66 · 74. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #4 Mister J T at 3-1. Use #1 Allo Enry in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1TOP PICK

3Camm' Duke

Jockey Sofia Vives 37% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Michael Ferraro 36% career 20-for-111 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Trainer R4: Mad Magic 5-1, R7: Trinity River 5-2

Class relief: $5,000 claiming last time, $4,000 claiming today. Trending the wrong way on speed, 74 to 66 to 47.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Fast pace; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 28d ago

M/L4-1

Model21%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last8th · 22d

22ND

4Mister J T

Jockey O K Hernandez 38% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%), #3 of 25 · Trainer Karl Grusmark 24% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Words Of War 12-1, R7: Fess 10-1

★ FASTEST WORK5/7 board here

The Aug 17 work, 4F in :47.20, was the best time at that distance that morning. 3rd of 6 at 3F on May 15, in :36.20.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 17 (4F in :47.20), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts here

M/L3-1

Model22%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last3rd · 9d

33RD

1Allo Enry

Jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie 35% career 16-for-87 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jon G Arnett 34% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Gramma G G 3-1, R4: Stjames 6-1, R5: Cream Puff 4-1, R6: Iron Hall 5-1

Finished 3rd in an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at FL, beaten 2¼ lengths. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 78 par.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 221d ago

M/L5-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 22d

44TH

2Invaluable Will

Jockey Ben S Joseph 0-for-25 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Debra A Breed 28% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Valiant Warrior 5-1 · Trainer R7: Valiant Warrior 5-1

Turns back in 9 days. 2nd last time, 6 lengths back, in a field of 7.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 2; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 7 on the board from 20 starts here

M/L5-1

Model12%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 9d

55TH

6Can't Beat Me

Jockey O Gomez 30% career 13-for-80 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Paul Barrow 32% career ★ 16-for-80 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Cabernet 5-1, R4: Mayheminthepalace 4-1, R5: Marion Grit 10-1, R6: Endless Appeal 6-1 · Trainer R1: Majorsdreamcometru 5-2, R5: Marion Grit 10-1, R6: Nashville Knockout 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from $7,500 claiming to $4,000 claiming. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 83, with 75 next best.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 5 (5F in 1:01.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 8 starts here

M/L5-2

Model18%

Fav?Yes

StyleE/P

Last5th · 14d

5Smokin' Alone

Jockey John C Berrios 34% career 0-for-15 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Michael T Sabine 21% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Normandy Life 10-1

A 67 is the high figure lately, short of the 78 par. Figures are climbing: 46, 60, 63 over its last three.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 170d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 19 starts here

M/L15-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last6th · 9d

7Max Foster

Jockey Diego Emanuel De 11-for-66 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer David Oyola 21% career ★ 5-for-16 on dirt this meet (31%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Tony O 9-2, R5: C Robin 12-1 · Trainer R4: Wild Banker 3-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 71 to 61 to 57. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 1)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 133d back)

RECORD 3 wins, 8 on the board from 20 starts here

M/L10-1

Model7%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last7th · 9d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 CAN'T BEAT ME (5-2) — our number has it ranked #5.
#6 CAN'T BEAT ME — our #5 number, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 23.4%).
#4 MISTER J T — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 20.5%).
#3 CAMM' DUKE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 16.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Camm' Duke; pressure from #2 Invaluable Will, #7 Max Foster; the shape helps #4 Mister J T; and works against #2 Invaluable Will, #3 Camm' Duke, #7 Max Foster.

Lead

3Camm' Duke992Invaluable Will847Max Foster73

Press

1Allo Enry855Smokin' Alone806Can't Beat Me79

Stalk

none

4Mister J T76

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Camm' Duke

Allo Enry

Invaluable Will

Smokin' Alone

Can't Beat Me

Max Foster

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Mister J T

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