R9 Gulfstream Park · Optional Claiming $25,000

5:05 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $54,000 · 7 runners5:05 PM · 1m Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $54K · Optional Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1All to Win▲A. Thomas · R. CrichtonThomas · CrichtonA89 76 82▲▲+8@trip 895-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best89 76 82@trip 89A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 85

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 76 82

▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 85

Jockey Anthony Thomas 27% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Rohan G Crichton 34% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Charcoal Blue 6-1 · Trainer R3: Captain Karter 9-2, R3: Charcoal Blue 6-1, this race: Junction Road 8-1

4/7 board here

Last out was 2nd, a head behind the winner, in an 8-horse optional claiming race at GP. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Anthony Thomas from post 1 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 47 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	GP	1m D	OC 25k n1x	2nd/8 by hd	89	11-1	b L	Track;bid;led;caught
9/11	GP	1 1/16 D	sAlw52000n1x	4th/6 -5½L	76	2.1-1	b L	Stalk;3p;no threat
8/15	GP	7f D	sAlw65000n1x	2nd/8 -4L	82	4.4-1	b L	Ang 5wd; responded

2Zeus's Echo▲E. Gonzalez · S. Joseph Jr.Gonzalez · Joseph Jr.A95 88 75▲▲+125-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best95 88 75A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 852

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 88 75

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 85

Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career 6-for-34 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph ★ 12-for-31 on dirt this meet (39%), #2 of 31

Also today · Jockey R7: Mish 1-1, R8: Nashville Slew 20-1, R10: Day To Day 2-1 · Trainer R3: Barjouj 2-1, R6: Life's Mystery 9-2, R7: Mish 1-1, this race: Al Loud 2-1 +3 more

60D LAYOFF

Saffie A Jr Joseph takes over the training from Christopher Davis. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back

RECORD Edwin Gonzalez from post 2 here: 62 wins, 147 top-3 in 272 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/13	DMR	1 1/16 T	OC 80k n1x	3rd/6 by hd	95	5.9-1	L	Ins;overtaken;lost2nd
7/19	DMR	1m T	OC 80k n1x	3rd/7 -1L	88	8.0-1	b L	Speed; yielded upper
6/5	CD	1m T	OC 125k n1x	7th/9 -2L	75	4.7-1	b L	3-4w;urging 1/4;faded

3Radical Rhetoric▼LSD. Herrera · M. LermanHerrera · LermanB76 89 77▼-6@trip 8920-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -676 89 77@trip 89B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 89)LS
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 89 77
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 89)LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 9-for-62 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Michael Lerman 28% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Gustavia 8-1, R3: Daunting 9-5, R4: Our Willow 4-1, R5: El Muheet 4-1 +4 more
3/5 board here
An 89 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 53d ago
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here
RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 3 here: 9 wins, 40 top-3 in 72 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 GP 1m D OC 25k n1x 5th/8 -4¼L 76 16-1 Slow early; pass weake
5/24 GP 1m D MSW Won/6 89 2.0-1 4 wide move; driving
4/19 GP 1m D MSW 2nd/9 -8L 77 6.3-1 3p;improve;no match

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/26	GP	1m D	OC 25k n1x	5th/8 -4¼L	76	16-1	Slow early; pass weake
5/24	GP	1m D	MSW	Won/6	89	2.0-1	4 wide move; driving
4/19	GP	1m D	MSW	2nd/9 -8L	77	6.3-1	3p;improve;no match

4Junction Road▼R. Hughes · R. CrichtonHughes · CrichtonB83 79 79▲+3≡8-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +383 79 79 ≡B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 79–83 · Last 3 figs 83 79 79

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Rasheed Hughes 34% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Rohan G Crichton 34% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Captain Karter 9-2, R6: Life's Mystery 9-2, R10: Little Georgie 20-1 · Trainer R3: Captain Karter 9-2, R3: Charcoal Blue 6-1, this race: All To Win 5-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK10/16 board here

Jockey switch: Miguel Angel Vasquez last out, Rasheed Hughes today. Beaten 2 lengths for 2nd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Shut off start; rallied), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 26d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 10 on the board from 16 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	2nd/6 -2L	83	4.9-1	b L	Shut off start;rallied
9/13	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	4th/6 -4¼L	79	5.9-1	b L	Ang 6wd 1/4; mild bid
8/17	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 25k n1x	6th/7 -7½L	79	5.4-1	b L	2w; no rally

5Irish AdieuM. Vasquez · R. DibonaVasquez · DibonaB80 85 81▼-5@trip 803-1Fair 7-223%▼ Down -580 85 81@trip 80B1
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 85 81
Jockey Miguel Angel Vasquez 33% career ★ 10-for-41 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 19 · Trainer Robert S Dibona 34% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Grant Me Peace 5-2, R5: Sofocles 9-5, R6: Kissed By A Rose 20-1, R7: Final Payment 6-1 +2 more
5/5 board here
A 90 in its last five clears the 85 par for this level. Finished 2nd last time in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back
RECORD On the board in all 5 starts here (1 win)
RECORD Miguel Angel Vasquez from post 5 here: 73 wins, 195 top-3 in 424 rides · 15% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m D OC 75k n1x 2nd/6 80 2.7-1 b L Stalk;2p;duel;caught
9/7 KD 6½f T Alw n1x 6th/12 -3½L 85 15-1 b L Ins trip;imprvd str
8/22 GP 5f T MSW Won/5 81 0.4-1 b L Pace;headed;drew clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m D	OC 75k n1x	2nd/6	80	2.7-1	b L	Stalk;2p;duel;caught
9/7	KD	6½f T	Alw n1x	6th/12 -3½L	85	15-1	b L	Ins trip;imprvd str
8/22	GP	5f T	MSW	Won/5	81	0.4-1	b L	Pace;headed;drew clear

6Khon HanL. Reyes · B. LopezReyes · LopezC72 84 78▼▼-1110-1Fair 8-112%▼▼ Big drop -1172 84 78C3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 72 84 78

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 9-for-64 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Bernardo G Lopez 26% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Vino 10-1, R2: King Of Hollywood 5-2, R3: Star Of The Gun 8-1, R4: Tulio 2-1 +5 more

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS3/4 board here

Returns from a 117-day break, the biggest in the field. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 6 here: 30 wins, 139 top-3 in 336 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/5	GP	7½f T	OC 75k n1x	7th/7 -5L	72	4.9-1	b L	Always outrun
6/6	GP	1 1/16 D	NtSrprsngB100k	3rd/9 -4L	84	6.3-1	b	Loomed 5w; flattened
4/18	OP	1⅛m D	BthHseRowB200k	8th/8 -7¼L	78	3.6-1	b	Slow st;rail;retreated

7Al Loud▲M. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.A93 74 70▲▲+21@trip 742-1Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best93 74 70@trip 74A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 85
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 74 70
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 85
Jockey Micah J Husbands 35% career ★ 9-for-28 on dirt this meet (32%), #1 of 19 · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph ★ 12-for-31 on dirt this meet (39%), #2 of 31
Also today · Jockey R3: Barjouj 2-1, R6: Boots 15-1, R10: Pure Eloquence 5-2 · Trainer R3: Barjouj 2-1, R6: Life's Mystery 9-2, R7: Mish 1-1, this race: Zeus's Echo 5-1 +3 more
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Class relief: maiden special weight last time, allowance optional claiming today. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Micah J Husbands from post 7 here: 14 wins, 36 top-3 in 89 rides · 16% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/19 GP 6f D MSW Won/6 93 1.7-1 b L Ins spd;held well;drvg
4/18 GP 1m D MSW 7th/11 -8L 74 18-1 L 3-4p turn; no rally
2/28 GP 6f D MSW 8th/10 -12L 70 11-1 L No factor; 2wd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/19	GP	6f D	MSW	Won/6	93	1.7-1	b L	Ins spd;held well;drvg
4/18	GP	1m D	MSW	7th/11 -8L	74	18-1	L	3-4p turn; no rally
2/28	GP	6f D	MSW	8th/10 -12L	70	11-1	L	No factor; 2wd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $25,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$54,000

Post

5:05 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#5 · 23%

Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.13

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #5 Irish Adieu (early speed, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 80 · 85 · 81. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Zeus's Echo at 5-1. Use #6 Khon Han in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 AL LOUD (2-1) — our number has it ranked #7.
#7 AL LOUD — our #7 number, about right at the windows (23.9% to their 25.9%).
#1 ALL TO WIN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (21.6% to their 22.2%).
#5 IRISH ADIEU — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 19.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Al Loud; pressure from #2 Zeus's Echo, #5 Irish Adieu; the shape helps #3 Radical Rhetoric; and works against #2 Zeus's Echo, #5 Irish Adieu, #7 Al Loud.

Lead

7Al Loud1002Zeus's Echo845Irish Adieu76

Press

1All To Win836Khon Han77

Stalk

4Junction Road73

3Radical Rhetoric75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Al Loud

100

Zeus's Echo

All To Win

Khon Han

Irish Adieu

Junction Road

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Radical Rhetoric

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Bet types

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$1 COAST TO COAST PICK 5

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