1Luna Toscana▼R. Mitchell · R. CrichtonMitchell · CrichtonB486-1Fair 6-114%
—48B▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 693Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 48
▼ Best fig 48 is 5+ under today's par 693 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK10th last time, 14 lengths back, in a field of 11. Was running in maiden claiming $30,000; today's maiden claiming $20,000 is an easier level on paper.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (3F in :36.80), 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 CD 6½f D MCL 30k 10th/11 -14L 48 13-1 b Off slow;saved ground 2High Class Broad▼A. Burgos · J. OrantesBurgos · OrantesA55 46 52▲▲+13↕8-1Fair 6-114%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best55 46 52 ↕A▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 692Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 27–55 · Last 3 figs 55 46 52
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Alberto Burgos 32% career 4-for-37 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Jose Orantes 26% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORKMoves up from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $20,000. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 1 (3F in :36.20), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BTP 6f D MSW 2nd/6 -2½L 55 5.2-1 b 4-w turn; up place 9/9 KD 6½f T MSW 12th/12 -14L 46 134-1 b Ins;never a factor 8/5 IND 5f T MSW 10th/11 -12L 52 58-1 b No factor 3Silenciosa▼LSR. Prescott · R. DobbsjrPrescott · DobbsjrB4415-1Fair 15-16%
—44B▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 69LSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 44
▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 69LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Switches from turf to dirt. A 44 is the high figure lately, short of the 69 par.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 24 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/19 IND 5f T MCL 20k 9th/11 -11L 44 14-1 Inside trip 4Blueberry Betty▼J. Bealmear · S. ShafferBealmear · ShafferB4020-1Fair 20-15%
—40B▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 69Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 40
▼ Best fig 40 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career 4-for-56 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Sarah E Shaffer 28% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R4: Red Clay Runaway 9-2, R7: Bout Tree Fiddy 12-1, R8: Figurine 30-1 · Trainer R6: Greystar 4-1A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 40 against a 69 par.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 8d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 IND 5½f D MCL 20k 8th/9 -15L 40 15-1 Saved ground 5Maid of Steel▼M. Murrill · A. WestMurrill · WestA57 45 60▲+4@trip 578-5Fair 2-131%
▲ Up +457 45 60@trip 57A▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 691Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 45 60
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 69Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career 8-for-46 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Aaron M West 36% career ★ 7-for-18 on dirt this meet (39%), #1 of 48Also today · Jockey R2: Endless Sky 6-1, R5: Guide Me Home 12-1, R6: Chondrite 3-1, R7: Machts Nichts 20-1 · Trainer this race: Livelaughloy 1-1★ FASTEST WORKBest recent figure is 60, well under the 69 par for this level. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Jul 7 (:47.20), a sign it is training forwardly.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 32d agoRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 IND 1m D MCL 20k 2nd/8 57 1.1-1 2p;bid3p3/8;no match 6/15 IND 5f T MSW 6th/6 -8L 45 1.2-1 b Stalked4p;faded str 6/2 IND 5f D MSW 4th/7 -4L 60 3.4-1 b Stalked4p;faded late 6Livelaughloy▼▲L. De · A. WestDe · WestA611-1Fair 5-229%
—61A▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 69▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 61
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 69▲ Lone speed on early paceJockey La Cruz Fernando De 13-for-86 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Aaron M West 36% career ★ 7-for-18 on dirt this meet (39%), #1 of 48Also today · Jockey R2: J's Alley Cat 3-1, R5: Leopard Rock 6-1, R7: Storm Back 15-1, R7: Toy'stroubledhero 10-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Maid Of Steel 8-5Jockey switch: Mitchell Murrill last out, La Cruz Fernando De today. Owns the highest recent figure here at 61.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 KEE -7f D MCL 30k 4th/9 -6L 61 19-1 b Vied 2w;btwn;gave way
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 3
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $20,000
Maiden Claiming, for fillies, 2-year-olds.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 94.81
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #5 Maid Of Steel (a presser/stalker, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 57 · 45 · 60. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 High Class Broad at 8-1. Use #1 Luna Toscana in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 LIVELAUGHLOY (1-1) — but VULNERABLE: only 1 prior start — unproven at a short price; unproven at today's distance
- #6 LIVELAUGHLOY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (36.2% to their 40.0%).
- #5 MAID OF STEEL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.6% to their 30.8%).
- #1 LUNA TOSCANA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 11.4%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 HIGH CLASS BROAD (8-1) — our fair 10.8% is above the morning line's 8.9%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 50 CENT PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)
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