R8 Indiana Downs · Maiden Claiming $35,000

2:42 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $39,440 · 14 runners2:42 PM · 1m Turf · 14 runners

Upcoming $39K · Maiden Claiming $35,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Catnip Hill▼S. Pauly · F. HorvathPauly · HorvathC52 51 63►↕@trip 6330-1Fair 30-13%► Steady52 51 63 ↕@trip 63C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 37–63 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 52 51 63

    ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey Summer Pauly 26% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Frank K Horvath 14% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R5: Gandy Dancer 6-1, R6: Optimistic Income 8-1 · Trainer this race: Tectonic 25-1
    0/4 board here

    Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Last out was 7th, 15 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at IND.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 126d back)
    RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14IND1 1/16 DMSW7th/8 -15L5281-1No factor
    10/6IND1m TMCL 20k8th/10 -10L5171-14path evenly
    9/23IND1m TMSW8th/9 -9L63111-1Jost st;inside;gv way
  2. 2Aubrey Mae▼L. De · M. MakerDe · MakerC5810-1Fair 20-15%—58C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 75

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 58

    ▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey La Cruz Fernando De 10-for-51 on turf this meet (20%) · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: J's Alley Cat 3-1, R3: Livelaughloy 1-1, R5: Leopard Rock 6-1, R7: Storm Back 15-1 +1 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Best recent figure is 58, well under the 75 par for this level. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.

    EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Sep 30 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14IND1 1/16 DMSW6th/7 -9L5813-1b LJostled st;savd ground
  3. 3Lady Blast▼M. Fernandez · R. LabraFernandez · LabraC58 75 58▼▼-915-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -958 75 58C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 75)

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 58 75 58

    ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (58 vs 75)
    Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Rogelio Labra 17% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Momimosa 15-1, R4: Cyber Runner 8-1, R6: Gdoubleyou 9-2, this race: Little Ugh 25-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $35,000. Rogelio Labra takes over the training from Jose M Camejo.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 56d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/16BTP5f TMSW3rd/7 -9½L582.3-1LInside run; moved up
    11/28FG5½f TMSW5th/11 -3¼L7524-1LBtw; best stride late
    10/16IND5f TMCL 25k4th/9 -3½L581.1-1bDueled;couldn't last
  4. 4WeftA. Jimenez · E. WestJimenez · West?15-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?

    Jockey Albin Jimenez 34% career 1-for-13 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Ethan W West 36% career 3-for-16 on turf this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R5: Glen Road 12-1 · Trainer R5: Glen Road 12-1

    Debut for this Always Dreaming filly, whose dam is Cotton Lane. This barn has 74 first-time starters on record and wins 14% of them.

    EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Always Dreaming out of Cotton Lane (English Channel)
    Trainer E. West: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 35% in the money (74 starts)
    Jockey A. Jimenez in turf: 3 wins from 16 (19%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/23TP4f:49.60breezing46/61
    10/17TP4f:49.40breezing39/66
    10/9TP5f1:02.20breezing10/19
    9/30TP4f:49.40breezing16/42
    9/22TP4f:48.00breezing11/72from gate
  5. 5Summer DateA. Burgos · R. MedinaBurgos · MedinaB53 70 72▼▼-18@trip 726-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -1853 70 72@trip 72B

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 70 72

    Jockey Alberto Burgos 32% career 3-for-22 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Robert Medina 32% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: High Class Broad 8-1, R5: Trentino 6-1, R7: Turbeau Man 5-1, R7: Zach 5-1 · Trainer R6: Buckeye Favorite 5-1
    CLASS DROP

    Figures have slipped: 72, 70, 53 over its last three. Beaten 10 lengths for 5th in a 5-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at KEE.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 69d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9KEE1 1/16 DMCL 30k5th/5 -10L534.8-1LIns;chased 4p2nd;tired
    9/12CD1⅛m TMCL 50k5th/10 -4½L7010-1LIns;5p upr;willingly
    9/5KD1m TMSW8th/12 -3¾L7225-1LTight 3/16;flattened
  6. 6Laythatpistoldown▼O. Mojica · C. BlockMojica · BlockB65 68@trip 687-2Fair 5-116%—65 68@trip 68B▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 751

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 68

    ▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey O Mojica 34% career 1-for-15 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Chris Block 36% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Three Point Seven 7-5, R5: Beach Vibe 3-1
    CLASS UP

    Raises its level, maiden claiming $20,000 last time and maiden claiming $35,000 now. 2nd last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 10.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3p; checked3/4; bid3/8. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 9d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6IND1m TMCL 20k2nd/10 -4L653.7-1L3p;checked3/4;bid3/8
    9/9IND1m TMCL 12k2nd/10 by hd682.2-1LBmp;3p;bid4p1/4;dueled
  7. 7Volatile Spark▼M. Nicholls · W. GallagherNicholls · GallagherC51 50@trip 5125-1Fair 50-12%—51 50@trip 51C▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 75

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 51 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 50

    ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey Mia Nicholls 30% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer William E Gallagher 27% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet

    Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 51 against a 75 par. A step up in company: maiden claiming $20,000 before, maiden claiming $35,000 today.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 7d ago)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6IND1m TMCL 20k9th/10 -11L5117-1bAwk start;saved ground
    11/13CD6f DMSW11th/11 -12L5042-1Saved ground; tired
  8. 8Figurine▼J. Bealmear · J. HoldenBealmear · HoldenC56 62 58►≡@trip 6930-1Fair 30-13%► Steady56 62 58 ≡@trip 69C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 55–62 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 62 58

    ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career 3-for-38 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Jay J Holden 19% career 0-for-25 on turf this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Blueberry Betty 20-1, R4: Red Clay Runaway 9-2, R7: Bout Tree Fiddy 12-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    Maiden through 10 starts. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 10 at the first call.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 20; 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 6 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/6IND1m TMCL 20k6th/10 -10L5648-1b LImproved position late
    9/1IND1 1/16 TMSW6th/10 -6½L6266-1b L4path;bid1/2;faltered
    8/20IND1 1/16 DMCL 20k3rd/7 by hd5814-1b LBid5/8;duel;gave way
  9. 9Risky Wave★V. Carrasco · G. ArnoldCarrasco · ArnoldA54 72 71▼▼-19↕@trip 804-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1954 72 71 ↕@trip 80A★ Best at the trip 802

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–77 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 72 71

    ★ Best at the trip 80
    Jockey Victor R Carrasco 27% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer George R Ii Arnold 21% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

    Switches from dirt to turf. Finished 6th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at IND, beaten 14 lengths.

    EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14IND1 1/16 DMSW6th/8 -14L5414-1b LStalked4p;gave way3/8
    9/12CD1⅛m TMCL 50k3rd/10 -2½L727.5-1b LBrshd btw st;2p;ran on
    8/16ELP1 1/16 TMCL 50k4th/11 -1¾L717.0-1LTracked ins; evenly
  10. 10AbilityLSJ. Ramos · J. WojczynskiRamos · WojczynskiB67 78 83▼▼-10@trip 6010-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -1067 78 83@trip 60BLS

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 78 83

    LS

    Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Joseph D Ramos 34% career 2-for-28 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Justin Wojczynski 26% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R5: Harwich Port 10-1, R7: Tap Tap Tap It In 20-1, R7: Rosso Fuoco 12-1 · Trainer R5: Gandy Dancer 6-1
    2/3 board here

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 83 to 78 to 67. Off 45 days since the last start.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago
    RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/15IND1 1/16 TMCL 30k3rd/7 -3L674.6-1b LBid2p5/16;no late gain
    8/6CNL1⅛m TMSW6th/8 -5¼L7852-1b LChased 3wd; faded
    7/12CNL1 1/16 TMCL 40k4th/9 -3L837.3-1b LIns-2p;angl out/in str
  11. 11Snowglobe▲D. Cannon · J. CruzCannon · CruzA77 66 71▲▲+9@trip 776-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best77 66 71@trip 77A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 75

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 77 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 66 71

    ▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 75
    Jockey Declan Cannon 32% career 2-for-9 on turf this meet (22%) · Trainer Jesus Cruz 30% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
    60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

    0 for 4 at today's distance. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 20 (1:01.00), a sign it is training forwardly.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 20; 2 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/23CNL1m TMCL 16k2nd/10 -¾L777.4-1LWait 7/16;moved 3w
    7/16CNL1m TMCL 16k4th/11 by hd665.7-1LVied ins;2w upr;wkn1/8
    6/26CNL1m TMCL 16k3rd/10 -2½L7116-1LBrk in bmpd;2p;tip3w
  12. 12Union RoseM. Pedroza · W. CowansPedroza · CowansA69 76 71▼-5≡@trip 763-1Fair 5-117%▼ Down -569 76 71 ≡@trip 76A3

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 69–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 76 71

    Jockey Marcelino Pedroza 8-for-51 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer William D Cowans 35% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Five Star 9-5, R4: Victory On Ice 4-5, R5: Hard Rocker 4-1, R7: Troubleonthegreen 3-1
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    A 45-day gap since its last race. Finished 2nd last time in a 7-horse maiden claiming $30,000 race at IND.

    EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 8d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/15IND1 1/16 TMCL 30k2nd/7692.9-1LPress3p;bid1/4;dueled
    7/25ELP1m TMCL 30k4th/8 -2L761.1-1L3w1st;5p upr;bid;wknd
    6/3CD1m TMCL 50k4th/10 -2½L717.9-1LTrck 3pbtw;5p upr;stay
  13. 13Little Ugh▼M. Fernandez · B. KingFernandez · KingC3625-1Fair 50-12%—36C▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 75

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 36

    ▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 75
    Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Barry L King 21% career
    Also today · Jockey R1: Momimosa 15-1, R4: Cyber Runner 8-1, R6: Gdoubleyou 9-2, this race: Lady Blast 15-1
    LASIX 1ST

    Goes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time. Sheds 6 pounds from its last start.

    EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Broke slowly; outrun), and the figure already reflects it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d back

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/12CD6½f DMSW11th/11 -22L3667-1bBroke slowly; outrun
  14. 14TectonicM. Meeks · F. HorvathMeeks · HorvathC54 62 45►@trip 7425-1Fair 30-13%► Steady54 62 45@trip 74C

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 74 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 62 45

    Jockey Micah Meeks 13% career 1-for-12 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Frank K Horvath 14% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R5: Center Fielder 20-1 · Trainer this race: Catnip Hill 30-1

    Changes barns, from Justin Wojczynski to Frank K Horvath. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 107 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3BTP1 1/16 DMCL 7k3rd/5 -1L545.5-1LStlkd;ins 1/4;kept on
    9/17BTP1m TMCL 7k3rd/9 -2½L627.5-1LMid-pack; mvd up 3rd
    9/4BTP1 1/16 TMCL 7k3rd/6 -½L455.4-1L3wbid; wknd1/8

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART1 MILE · TURF · infield2-turn

INDIANA DOWNS · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $35,000

Field
14 runners
Purse
$39,440
Post
2:42 PM ET
Pace
Tactical / Honest
Card model top pick
#6 · 16%

Maiden Claiming, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.19

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #6 Laythatpistoldown (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 65 · 68. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Risky Wave at 4-1. Use #12 Union Rose in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #12 UNION ROSE (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
  • #12 UNION ROSE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.1% to their 17.3%).
  • #6 LAYTHATPISTOLDOWN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 15.4%).
  • #9 RISKY WAVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.0% to their 13.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #12 Union Rose; pressure from #11 Snowglobe, #3 Lady Blast.

Lead
none
Press
12Union Rose7711Snowglobe753Lady Blast708Figurine68
Stalk
14Tectonic826Laythatpistoldown759Risky Wave7310Ability711Catnip Hill64
Close
5Summer Date78
No style yet
13Little Ugh717Volatile Spark642Aubrey Mae634Weft

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

14
Tectonic
82
12
Union Rose
77
6
Laythatpistoldown
75
11
Snowglobe
75
9
Risky Wave
73
10
Ability
71
3
Lady Blast
70
8
Figurine
68
1
Catnip Hill
64

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

5
Summer Date
18
Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA

10 CENT SUPERFECTA / 3RD LEG OF HORSESHOE HAT TRICK TURF PICK 3

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.